Member Info for JohnLewis79

Apologies for the delay in replying to the test questions yesterday. But I will only log-in once, after that forget it...no chance.

I have made my displeasure known to LSE but given that they still display Co balance sheets 4 years out of date ( check G's fundamentals) I'm not holding my breath or anything else.

So mytton and hydrogen thanx for trying the tests. The answer to test 2 is Nos 1&4.

Around 50% said no 1 was all they would need and only 20% gave the right answer (1&4).

Even though he says the mrkt always goes up when he predicts it will, you still need to know what he said before the mrkt went down (cos, it does not always go up).
Subjecting him to both these tests is the only way to be positive about the truth. I called no 1 but not no 4 as most did (reason why later).

Simply put (again I missed this)...that the only reliable way of determining whether something is true is to try proving that it is false.

So back to the reflective system v the reflexive. If the reflective system cannot find a solution the reflexive brain will resume control using your intuition and emotions as a short cut.
In other words why go through the hassle of testing the logic of the 4 answers when no 1 feels and sounds so right at first glance?
As ever its the conflict between, 'thinking' and 'feeling' which trips most of us up...mytton,hydrogen and JL..hence we skipped no 4 (except hydrogen) who missed no1.

I'll try and dig up some other interesting puzzles I have kept over the years for a dull day.... I'll say now I'm hopeless at these, so while I know the answers
I will always be straight with you as to how i performed.

Mytton I already tried he's unavailable.

Well done mytton u were real close. 102 the answer so I guess you knew when he was born or pretty damn close.
Most people fall into the 76-86 group based on their instinct / intuition of seeing JFK as a young man (visual memory) and then factoring his age up.

Once you were asked to reconsider, the analytical part of your brain assessed other factors and overruled the intuitive part the right side.

So we'll done mytton. How about the other test? I'll give the answer later as am off for a pint.

Ok...see if we get any other offers. I need to know how you arrived at 100. Dont tell me yet.

Your first guess is what I wanna know! Not after the other clues....

As per my fault...I'm not much lol with mob technology...thanx mytton.

...might add 10 so say 86. Wrong twice.
Or...you might reason he was in his late 30s early 40s from photos/films etc when he was shot and that was in the early 1960s so you'd estimate he would be late 80s early 90s. Wrong third time.

Given one more guess how old would he be? My first choice was out of the money by some distance.

Here's another similar type test of the brains reflective system v the reflexive brain system.

Graduate Students in the statistics dept of a University were told that an expert claimed that the mrkt always went up after he predicted it would rise.
They were told they could verify the experts claim by choosing to observe any or all of the following evidence.

1) what the mrkt did after he predicted it would rise.
2) what the mrkt did after
he predicted it would fall.
3) what he predicted before the mrkt rose.
4) what he predicted before the mrkt fell.

Then they were asked what was the "minimum" evidence they would need to establish whether the experts claim was true.

Only 20% gave the correct answer. So was it no 1? or 2? or another?

I was among the 80%.

I give up won't post end of Q1 or even Test no 2...I'll try one more time later.

If your so smart why do you act so stupid?...

The roller coaster of investing, fear, greed,anguish and joy. It requires us to make decisions on past plays, hunches, future hopes and tips which ones brain should enable us to weed out the dumb ones and make logical decisions on the good ones. That we often do not makes us human.

For instance we know we should buy low and sell high and yet how many of us do it?
We also know we cannot beat the markt but most think they can or will at sometime.
We hang on to every word from mrkt gurus whose records are as abysmal as ours....why?
We chase 'hot stocks' knowing the risks far outweigh the rewards time and time again..me mostly!
As many have said investors are their own worst enemy. How many times did i roll the dice on my 'blood' thing? About 33 times, I could paper my bathroom with the c/notes....stupid or what?

Adam Smith said in his book the Money Game, "if you don't know what type of investor you are Wall St is an expensive place to find out!" Or as a disillusioned investor phrased it more succinctly
"You either think your a genius...... or an idiot..... or your not sure."
To which I will add the 'not sure' ones are probably right.

Finally I know now....way too late...that i did not understand my financial behaviour and what I believed I knew about myself was most likely wrong.
Its probably a bit late in the day for me to change my 'investing' personality
which relies too much on feelings, hunches etc...but you youngsters can. How you do it i'm not sure though patience, research, less emotion & practice should be watch words and swerve blue sky mining!
I read that Benjamin Graham (Buffets teacher) suggested every invstr should run a dummy paper portfolio for at least a year before using real money. I tried it but gave up...itching for real action, my intuition over-riding my analytical.

Nowdays i'm more of a cynic I follow Murphy's Law that whatever can go wrong will go wrong when you least expect it.....and here's the kicker...always TO ME!! Silly but true.

One of the ironies of my investing history is this. A clear signal that I am wrong about a stock is believing I am right...I know that sounds ridiculous but it's pretty accurate in my case (G a case in point) one of a few!
I never used to change when the evidence tells me to...so land up losing more money, the pig headedness syndrome or what a dumb uckf.

There are lots of books
on the psychology of investing..... your local library has them, read some and see if you feature in the pages, you might be surprised.
As you might be by this...

Intuition v analytics or the left brain v the right brain.Here is a test.

You must try this quickly ie....not spending 5 mins over the calcs....

If Kennedy had not been assassinated how old would he be today? Now don't cont reading and write down how old he'd be....so,
If like most people you'd spontaneously guess, he would be say c.76 or so then on reflection you mi

This is a bloody waste of time not displaying the full post and losing others..

If your so smart why do you act so stupid?...

The roller coaster of investing, fear, greed,anguish and joy. It requires us to make decisions on past plays, hunches, future hopes and tips which ones brain should enable us to weed out the dumb ones and make logical decisions on the good ones. That we often do not makes us human.

For instance we know we should buy low and sell high and yet how many of us do it?
We also know we cannot beat the markt but most think they can or will at sometime.
We hang on to every word from mrkt gurus whose records are as abysmal as ours....why?
We chase 'hot stocks' knowing the risks far outweigh the rewards time and time again..me mostly!
As many have said investors are their own worst enemy. How many times did i roll the dice on my 'blood' thing? About 33 times, I could paper my bathroom with the c/notes....stupid or what?

Adam Smith said in his book the Money Game, "if you don't know what type of investor you are Wall St is an expensive place to find out!" Or as a disillusioned investor phrased it more succinctly
"You either think your a genius...... or an idiot..... or your not sure."
To which I will add the 'not sure' ones are probably right.

Finally I know now....way too late...that i did not understand my financial behaviour and what I believed I knew about myself was most likely wrong.
Its probably a bit late in the day for me to change my 'investing' personality
which relies too much on feelings, hunches etc...but you youngsters can. How you do it i'm not sure though patience, research, less emotion & practice should be watch words and swerve blue sky mining!
I read that Benjamin Graham (Buffets teacher) suggested every invstr should run a dummy paper portfolio for at least a year before using real money. I tried it but gave up...itching for real action, my intuition over-riding my analytical.

Nowdays i'm more of a cynic I follow Murphy's Law that whatever can go wrong will go wrong when you least expect it.....and here's the kicker...always TO ME!! Silly but true.

One of the ironies of my investing history is this. A clear signal that I am wrong about a stock is believing I am right...I know that sounds ridiculous but it's pretty accurate in my case (G a case in point) one of a few!
I never used to change when the evidence tells me to...so land up losing more money, the pig headedness syndrome or what a dumb uckf.

There are lots of books
on the psychology of investing..... your local library has them, read some and see if you feature in the pages, you might be surprised.
As you might be by this...

Intuition v analytics or the left brain v the right brain.Here is a test.

You must try this quickly ie....not spending 5 mins over the calcs....

If Kennedy had not been assassinated how old would he be today? Now don't cont reading and write down how old he'd be....so,
If like most people you'd spontaneously guess, he would be say c.76 or so then on reflection you mi

If your so smart why do you act so stupid?...

The roller coaster of investing, fear, greed,anguish and joy. It requires us to make decisions on past plays, hunches, future hopes and tips which ones brain should enable us to weed out the dumb ones and make logical decisions on the good ones. That we often do not makes us human.

For instance we know we should buy low and sell high and yet how many of us do it?
We also know we cannot beat the markt but most think they can or will at sometime.
We hang on to every word from mrkt gurus whose records are as abysmal as ours....why?
We chase 'hot stocks' knowing the risks far outweigh the rewards time and time again..me mostly!
As many have said investors are their own worst enemy. How many times did i roll the dice on my 'blood' thing? About 33 times, I could paper my bathroom with the c/notes....stupid or what?

Adam Smith said in his book the Money Game, "if you don't know what type of investor you are Wall St is an expensive place to find out!" Or as a disillusioned investor phrased it more succinctly
"You either think your a genius...... or an idiot..... or your not sure."
To which I will add the 'not sure' ones are probably right.

Finally I know now....way too late...that i did not understand my financial behaviour and what I believed I knew about myself was most likely wrong.
Its probably a bit late in the day for me to change my 'investing' personality
which relies too much on feelings, hunches etc...but you youngsters can. How you do it i'm not sure though patience, research, less emotion & practice should be watch words and swerve blue sky mining!
I read that Benjamin Graham (Buffets teacher) suggested every invstr should run a dummy paper portfolio for at least a year before using real money. I tried it but gave up...itching for real action, my intuition over-riding my analytical.

Nowdays i'm more of a cynic I follow Murphy's Law that whatever can go wrong will go wrong when you least expect it.....and here's the kicker...always TO ME!! Silly but true.

One of the ironies of my investing history is this. A clear signal that I am wrong about a stock is believing I am right...I know that sounds ridiculous but it's pretty accurate in my case (G a case in point) one of a few!
I never used to change when the evidence tells me to...so land up losing more money, the pig headedness syndrome or what a dumb uckf.

There are lots of books
on the psychology of investing..... your local library has them, read some and see if you feature in the pages, you might be surprised.
As you might be by this...

Intuition v analytics or the left brain v the right brain.Here is a test.

You must try this quickly ie....not spending 5 mins over the calcs....

If Kennedy had not been assassinated how old would he be today? Now don't cont reading and write down how old he'd be....so,
If like most people you'd spontaneously guess, he would be say c.76 or so then on reflection you mi

..ght reason he was in his late 30s early 40s when he was shot and that was in the early 1960s, so say 90ish. Wrong 3 times.
Given a 3rd choice how old would he be?
No cheating. I didn't come close on my first guess.

If your so smart why do you act so stupid?...

The roller coaster of investing, fear, greed,anguish and joy. It requires us to make decisions on past plays, hunches, future hopes and tips which ones brain should enable us to weed out the dumb ones and make logical decisions on the good ones. That we often do not makes us human.

For instance we know we should buy low and sell high and yet how many of us do it?
We also know we cannot beat the markt but most think they can or will at sometime.
We hang on to every word from mrkt gurus whose records are as abysmal as ours....why?
We chase 'hot stocks' knowing the risks far outweigh the rewards time and time again..me mostly!
As many have said investors are their own worst enemy. How many times did i roll the dice on my 'blood' thing? About 33 times, I could paper my bathroom with the c/notes....stupid or what?

Adam Smith said in his book the Money Game, "if you don't know what type of investor you are Wall St is an expensive place to find out!" Or as a disillusioned investor phrased it more succinctly
"You either think your a genius...... or an idiot..... or your not sure."
To which I will add the 'not sure' ones are probably right.

Finally I know now....way too late...that i did not understand my financial behaviour and what I believed I knew about myself was most likely wrong.
Its probably a bit late in the day for me to change my 'investing' personality
which relies too much on feelings, hunches etc...but you youngsters can. How you do it i'm not sure though patience, research, less emotion & practice should be watch words and swerve blue sky mining!
I read that Benjamin Graham (Buffets teacher) suggested every invstr should run a dummy paper portfolio for at least a year before using real money. I tried it but gave up...itching for real action, my intuition over-riding my analytical.

Nowdays i'm more of a cynic I follow Murphy's Law that whatever can go wrong will go wrong when you least expect it.....and here's the kicker...always TO ME!! Silly but true.

One of the ironies of my investing history is this. A clear signal that I am wrong about a stock is believing I am right...I know that sounds ridiculous but it's pretty accurate in my case (G a case in point) one of a few!
I never used to change when the evidence tells me to...so land up losing more money, the pig headedness syndrome or what a dumb uckf.

There are lots of books
on the psychology of investing..... your local library has them, read some and see if you feature in the pages, you might be surprised.
As you might be by this...

Intuition v analytics or the left brain v the right brain.Here is a test.

You must try this quickly ie....not spending 5 mins over the calcs....

If Kennedy had not been assassinated how old would he be today? Now don't cont reading and write down how old he'd be....so,
If like most people you'd spontaneously guess, he would be say c.76 or so then on reflection you mi

If your so smart why do you act so stupid?...

The roller coaster of investing, fear, greed,anguish and joy. It requires us to make decisions on past plays, hunches, future hopes and tips which ones brain should enable us to weed out the dumb ones and make logical decisions on the good ones. That we often do not makes us human.

For instance we know we should buy low and sell high and yet how many of us do it?
We also know we cannot beat the markt but most think they can or will at sometime.
We hang on to every word from mrkt gurus whose records are as abysmal as ours....why?
We chase 'hot stocks' knowing the risks far outweigh the rewards time and time again..me mostly!
As many have said investors are their own worst enemy. How many times did i roll the dice on my 'blood' thing? About 33 times, I could paper my bathroom with the c/notes....stupid or what?

Adam Smith said in his book the Money Game, "if you don't know what type of investor you are Wall St is an expensive place to find out!" Or as a disillusioned investor phrased it more succinctly
"You either think your a genius...... or an idiot..... or your not sure."
To which I will add the 'not sure' ones are probably right.

Finally I know now....way too late...that i did not understand my financial behaviour and what I believed I knew about myself was most likely wrong.
Its probably a bit late in the day for me to change my 'investing' personality
which relies too much on feelings, hunches etc...but you youngsters can. How you do it i'm not sure though patience, research, less emotion & practice should be watch words and swerve blue sky mining!
I read that Benjamin Graham (Buffets teacher) suggested every invstr should run a dummy paper portfolio for at least a year before using real money. I tried it but gave up...itching for real action, my intuition over-riding my analytical.

Nowdays i'm more of a cynic I follow Murphy's Law that whatever can go wrong will go wrong when you least expect it.....and here's the kicker...always TO ME!! Silly but true.

One of the ironies of my investing history is this. A clear signal that I am wrong about a stock is believing I am right...I know that sounds ridiculous but it's pretty accurate in my case (G a case in point) one of a few!
I never used to change when the evidence tells me to...so land up losing more money, the pig headedness syndrome or what a dumb uckf.

There are lots of books
on the psychology of investing..... your local library has them, read some and see if you feature in the pages, you might be surprised.
As you might be by this...

Intuition v analytics or the left brain v the right brain.Here is a test.

You must try this quickly ie....not spending 5 mins over the calcs....

If Kennedy had not been assassinated how old would he be today? Now don't cont reading and write down how old he'd be....so,
If like most people you'd spontaneously guess, he would be say c.76 or so then on reflection you mi

How about an MBO at 400 and then they can cont doing sfa?

Well a) means we stay in Europe. Not what I voted for....would please the 48!

So Corbo is quite happy to talk to various murderous thugs but not an elected UK Prime Minister.
Says it all really. Unfortunately teacher is surrounded by weak willed remainer jobsworths the worst being that 'snake in the grass' Hammond.
She should have binned his arse long ago and is now paying the price as the snake plots against a 'no deal' with his mrkt buddies. No 2 is the little squirt Gove who did for Boris.

As I see it there are but just 3 options. a) cancel Brexit, b) customs union & c) no deal.
The first is a no hoper. c)
divides the Tories & Labour and some of the cabinet have threatened resignation over the no deal issue & b) would tie us into Europe with no independent trade policy.

A step change is needed a paradigm shift in emphasis from a Govt determined to thwart the will of the electorate.

Who will step forward?

Cheers H...made good reading!

Progress on trade talks boosted Asia and Pan Pacific mrkts today. In TK shares are up the Nikkei +270, HK gained 291 & SH added 25.
However Apple component maker Nidec and chips in Taiwan fell on weak China demand for Apple computers. Both slashing rev forecasts.

Vice Prem Li He will be going to Washington in late Jan aiming to end tariff war.

Earlier Wall St climbed on trade optimism, a cut in US penalty duties on Chinese imports buoyed sentiment. Stocks in industrials, healthcare, chems & basic materials.
gained. Big board risers were DuPont up 3%, Cat & Boeing up 2%.
The Dow jumped 163 (24370), 500 added 20 (2636) and Nsdq put on 50 to (7084). US crude rose 54c to $52.61.

Earlier London was on the back foot all day the usual uncertainties doing the rounds of all media outlets..... BRINO (brexit in name only) for a change... saw the 100 off 28 (6835) though the 250 looked the other way putting on 51 (18537).

The nos: Oil$61.89. Gold $1291. Coin $ 3616. $1.297. € 1.139. Vix 18.
FF +34 & DF +65.
Morning all.