Member Info for JohnLewis79

Many people are of the opinion that the 'City of London' is a massive conspiracy against the public interest. You should check out how 'Britain's Bankers Made Billions from the end of Empire' on (U Tube).

Britain may have lost her Colonial Empire but now rules the waves of recycled dirty money and the tax evasion industry. A sobering viewing.

DC deal makers reached agreement on a temporary lift of the debt ceiling by c.$480bn which will keep the tills open through early December. It was passed by 50:48 with 11 Republicans crossing the floor. It will be sent to the 'House' for rubber stamping.

Stocks liked the news jumping over 500 in the first hour and extending Wed's gains in a broad based rally led up by big tech. US ADP non farm employment claims posted a bigger than expected fall of 326,000 and across all unemployment programs c.4•2m individuals are claiming benefits down from 5m in the prior week. The more important employment nos are reported today and consensus is for a 500,000 increase in Sept.

Oils ticked up on news the Govt is considering selling oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves of c.620m+ barrels. On an average daily useage oil reserves would last c.32 days. Gold slipped as stocks and bond yields rose, a negative for the yellow metal. Dec futures off $2•30 to $1759 bearing down on the technical support level of $1700. The USD index v a basket of 6 major currencies remained flat at 94•20.

Q3 nos start rolling in next week and analysts expect company earnings to have risen on average 29%. At the close the DJI had gained 1% with only 4 fallers, (IBM, Salesforce, Amgen & 3M). Risers outpaced losers by 2•5:1 on 10•1bn vol.

DJ +338 (34,755)
SP +36 (4400)
NS +130 (14,897)
R2 +21 (1367)
WTI $79•37
10ytb 1•589%

Latest :- Oil $82•96. Vix 19•54
Gold $ 1760. Copper $4•272.
Palm $1350. Silver $22•485.
$1•361. €1•178. Yen 111•848.
Yuan 6•450. FF +1. DF +43.
Morning all.

Stocks were in recurring 'sell off' mode at the bell yesterday with all 11 S&P sectors declining the DJI falling nearly 500 by 10:30. Everything from American airlines to Zynga were caught in the sell off. Over in Washington DC, Democrat Senators planned a 3rd attempt to get the Republicans to support raising the $28•4tn debt limit ceiling to avoid an unprecedented default. The mrkt suspects the decision will be kicked down the road to December, giving a boost to equities.

Rising energy prices (for once) and headline inflation topping 5% outweighed optimism over the economy as these two issues will ultimately be a drag on corporate profits and consumers. Up to now the nos have been broadly upbeat, Durable goods (stuff that does not need to be replaced often), retail sales and the PMI nos supported the bull case and topped or matched market expectations.

Soaring energy prices caused alarm among European Govts as gas prices initially surged 37% in the UK yesterday to $40 per BTU, that's c.8x higher than spot US prices and could lead to a winter fuel crisis. Putin later said Russia would supply more gas to Europe to make up the shortfall.

Private payroll nos grew by 568,000 last month well above forecast which bodes well for the Govt Jobs report nos due Friday and could bring the Feds goal of full employment ever nearer. The rise due in the main to subsiding covid infection rates helped the hospitality & leisure sectors to take on more staff.

DJ +102 (34,417)
SP +18 (4364)
NS +93 (14,767)
R2 -11 (1386)
WTI $76•94
10ytb 1•542%

MSCI (W) u/c (3016)
Gold Bugs +5 (237)

Latest:- Oil $80•68. Vix 21.
Gold $1760. Copper $4•193.
Palm $1350. Silver $22•590.
$1•358. €1•175. Yen 111•442.
Yuan 6•446. FF +70. DF+138
Morning all.

Hi mickey1122, yea me too. I saw near 2BN outstanding which rang alrm bells of previous raises/dilutions. Blimey if we're struggling here can't imagine what it's like over at ORR!

Hi, Lawrence, cheers. I talk to a few investors with a broad range of stocks and the consensus of opinion is the mrkt is infected by the pessimistic global view of future earnings, beside the universal view of their shares are undervalued.

Seems a one size view covers all hence backwaters like Aim get neglected by the brokerage community and as a result suffer unduly. Getting the message across is an uphill struggle and requires committed management and broker support both of which PAT are blessed with imo. Perhaps we/ i stress to much and should take a more laissez' faire attitude to the tribulations of mrkt plays? Maybe but what's a poor boy to do supping his pint in a deserted pub?

Update on vols, buy and sell wks 28-39 (12 wks).

Vol 9•730m
Buy 4•530m
Sell 5•200m
Sell 53%
Sell 1•1:1
Sp -39%

I've taken the period 28-39 as that seemed to be when the sp slide from 17•25 started. As you will note sells are ahead by 670,000. On the bare nos if we calc 670,000 at say 13•5 that amounts to £94,000 diff. That knocked the Co value down by c.£6•142m. Does that warrant such a slide in the company value? If that's the mrkt doing its job which I always thought was to establish fair value give or take then I haven't been paying attention.

Oriole Resources identifies Multiple Gold targets in Cameroon W.A. Sp anyone?

Remember the mrkt can stay illogical, perverse and obstinate longer than you can stay solvent. It rarely pays to buck the mrkt so if you think your being 'played' you should cut your losses.

However if you know your being 'played' like any good poker player you will have an ace or two up your sleeve. You wait for a better hand to be dealt by Mr Market. Stats say you will get dealt better hands but you must be at the table to profit.

Holding your nerve in the face of losses is gut wrenching. Its too easy to chuck your hand in by being bullied out on a crummy pair. My twopence worth? That's what's happening now. Stick or fold that's the choice.

It's normal to feel dejected and harbour bad thoughts about PAT when the shares have performed as badly as this has. The constant drip in prices serves noone well unless your short. The bod have reported no negative news, we are fully funded through 2022 and if mrkts turn sour the money taps for junior explorers will be turned off.

It does seem perverse to have fallen so far given the background resource data and trading favouring the sellers one day and the buyers the next. So far this wk buys are outpacing sells. Mrkt motives are always difficult to fathom and rarely will you get an answer you like. No doubt there was too much optimistic talk of multi bagging and 100 by year end which has proved hopelessly out of the ball park of my finger in the air number of 20.

No point in making any rash decisions, I'm certainly here till Christmas when we will be in a better position to assess the lay of the land. If there has been no material increase in the sp and your not being paid to hold PAT for the risk it would be wise to seek other opportunities.

Nearly 500 points up in the first hour volatility is back with a bang, as traders buy any dip in stock prices. Big techs led by Msoft, Apple & Honeywell led the bounce back yesterday to a partial recovery in prices by close.

In other news those 'signing on' fell by 55% to c.5m as of Sept 11 much as forecast. Gold fell $10 to $1759 as London closed but oil ticked up to $83•13 and has been on a 'tare up' these last 8 wks gaining c.20%.

DJ +312 (34,315)
SP +45 (4346)
NS +202 (14,674)
R2 +5 (1356)
WTI $78•87
10ytb 1•554%

MSCI (W) +23 (3016)
Gold Bugs u/c (232)

Latest:- Oil $82•53. Vix 21•30.
Gild $1754. Copper $4•142.
Palm $1310. Silver $22•475.
$1•361. €1•174. Yen 111•701.
Yuan 6•445. FF -41. DF -101.
Morning all.

It's easy to say forget the sp but as another poster has said "a lot harder to do." If PAT is one of many stocks you hold I guess you won't be too bothered but in my case I have a significant amount of my cash invested in PAT.

I would find it difficult to keep track of the businesses and economics of 10 or more stocks, just too many balls to juggle. I have always preferred to put meaningful amounts in a few companies as great investment ideas rarely come to me. I'm betting the fewer calls I make the less mistakes I make, well that's my theory and why I keep a beady eye on the sp and anyway I reckon i can spot a winner now and again.

If I exclude my blood thing, my theory is holding up as I had a strike rate of 1/3, 0/3, 2/3, 0/3 1/2 which was a good run on my last bunch of selections. Not life changing money but kept me ticking over. One things for sure no'ones gonna ring the bell when this turns.

I'm not a "squiggly line" follower believing them to be pointers rather than predictors of where a share price is headed. Looking at the 3 month PAT chart (if you dare) the sp has gone to hell in a handcart primarily or so it seems on the Bhukia set back.

Given most sp's rarely go one way forever and if your still trying to catch this falling knife you must be praying for the cavalry to arrive and sweep away the bears. My record of chasing PAT downhill has not worked out, adding to a losing position rarely does, so I'm also waiting for the sound of bugles before I do something stupid.

US stocks were on the skids from the bell falling 506 by mid'day as sellers unloaded highly valued techs and value stocks, both seen as vulnerable to rising t/bill yields. F/bk was the main casualty losing $16 to $326 after whistle-blower Frances Haugen called the Co " toxic for teens" a "betrayal of democracy" & "profits before people." She will be appearing before Congress today.

All 11 S&P sectors were in the red at lunch with declining issues outpacing advances by 1•7:1 on the NYSE and 2•6:1 on the NSDQ. The 500 slipped below its 100 DMA and will have to contend with company 3Q nos starting next week. Hanging over the mrkt was the impasse at Congress on the debt ceiling, the Republicans in no mood to help the Democrats without "assurances."

Big oil jumped as Brent spiked over $81(no change from OPEC) and Gold ($1771) benefited from safe haven status and turmoil on the Street. Q4 is traditionally a good time for equities. Last year was exceptional the Dow gained 10% and the 500 added 12% but with 50% of the 500 down 10% already recouping losses will be tough as no'one expects a repeat performance of 2020.

Trade concerns with China resurfaced just as headwinds are hitting output, increasing raw material costs and supply bottlenecks causing long delays at China ports adding to the woe. US trade with China in 2020 was negative $310•265bn and as of July '21 running negative $187•2bn.

DJ -324 (34,003)
SP -57 (4300)
NS -310 (14,472)
R2 -6 (1352)
WTI $77•97
10ytb 1•487%

MSCI(W) u/c (2993)
Gold Bugs +4 (232)

Latest:- Oil $81•61. Vix 22•96.
Gold $1761. Copper $4•233.
Palm $1310. Silver $22•510.
$1•362. €1•172. Yen 111•079.
Yuan 6•445. FF +28. DF -10.
Morning all.

Sellers or bears of PAT are firmly in control despite trades being split 55:45 so hardly a one way rush for the exits. Help may be on its way in Q4 but will have to be 'significant' as all other RNS have been ignored.

Since 1/9 the shares have slumped 27% and Allenby Capitals fair value est of 28•8 in March long forgotten. If you haven't already sold up its probably too late unless you see this at 5. The facts as presented by the board have not changed so I see no reason to alter mine.

Markets on mainland China are closed for a holiday. After a bright start Tokyo saw sellers as worries over China growth, US budgetary issues and the new central Govt's monetary policies were causing anxiety. Techs and shipping led the falls on the 225.

Shares in HK are falling on the back of Evergrande Property Unit's stock being suspended. No reason forthcoming and other property listings on the Hang Seng were causing concern due to audit issues. Two bright spots were Jakarta and Sydney.

Some risk hedging saw early buyers in gold ($1766) and oils slipped on worries OPEC will ramp up production after meeting later today.

Latest:- Oil $79.11. Vix 21•15.
Gold $1759. Copper $4•192.
Palm.$1258. Silver $22•540.
$1•354. €1•168. Yen 111• 025.
Yuan 6•445. FF +21. DF -116.
Morning all.

Dumper Dave's 95,353 sell yesterday didn't help us pull out of another down day. I suspect he's been responsible for 27% of the sells this week, if not more taking PAT down 12%. You could look at it this way (£10,120) worth of sells over buys has tanked the mrkt cap by £1•198m. Make sense to you? Here's the nos.

Wk 39

Trades 91
Vol c.999•4k
Buy c.454•4k
Sell c.545•0k
Sell 1•20:1
Sell 55%
Avg size c.10,978
Avg cost c.£1100
Sp -12%
Ytd -67%
52 +110%

Ftse -59 (7027)
Aim -10 (1244)

DJ +482 (34,426)
SP +49 (4357)
NS +102 (14,792)
R2 +26 (1357)
WTI $75•75
10yt/b 1•463%

NYSE
+2340
- 1001
u/c 118

MSCI (W) +16 (3023)
Gold Bugs -1 (228)

Close:- Oil $78•70. Vix 21•15.
Gold $1761. Copper $4•208.
Palm $1285. Silver $22•565.
$1•354. €1•168. Yen 111•006.
Yuan 6•446.
Morning all.

It ain't just us. Cora Gold and Oriole are in the dog house this year. Many say there is more risk than reward in junior gold plays..... we shall have to see. There are few W.A.focussed junior gold mining companies listed in London, most are mid to large tier TSX or Australians with operations all over the continent.

We are 8% down wk-t-d and Friday is not usually a day PAT sees any gain so a dull day is in prospect. Vols and deals are down on last week which could signal investor exhaustion.

Expo mining stocks are not everyone's cup of tea especially if on Aim which may be a drawback to a wider audience. I'm not a fan of the 'herd' arriving which to date I think has only happened once this year, so that's been a bonus. We are struggling to hold 11 so I'm guessing anyone selling now is probably losing money....I sure would and I'm fed up with doing that!

Energy and financials cont to outperform other S&P sectors helped by crude having a stellar year and t/bill yields serving to boost banks profitability. Gold inched ahead c.1% but is headed for monthly and quarterly declines. Techs have suffered due to stretched valuations, supply chain problems and rising borrowing costs which weigh on their future earnings. The Nsdq has had a miserable month falling 892 (6%).

New Jobless claims unexpectedly rose over 30,000 to 361,000 for August way above consensus estimates, while US GDP hit an annualised 7% during Q2 in a mrkt priced for perfection. That leaves company profit margins precariously placed if growth expectations fall short next year.

The Dow opened up 167 soon after the bell but that triggered sellers and by lunch was down 311 as traders squared Q3 books. Many Fund managers clear out non performers at the end of each quarter, a form of window dressing.

At the close decliners (2152) outpaced advances (1214) by 1•77:1 leaving the 2 major indices down on the day and for Sept the 500 fell 215 (4•75%) and the Dow 1517 (4•30%) the 8th worst performance since 1950. October volatility is c.36% higher than the average of the other 11 months of the year, so much more prone to pull backs, corrections and bear mrkts.

DJ -547 (33,844)
SP -52 (4308)
NS -63 (14,690)
R2 -23 (1332)
WTI $74•92
10ytb 1•482%

MSCI(W) -22 (3007)
Gold Bugs +5 (229)

Latest:- Oil $78•19. Vix 23•14.
Gold $1754. Copper $4•087.
Palm $1285. Silver $22•075.
$1•345. €1•162. Yen 111•230.
Yuan 6•446. FF -76. DF -192.
Morning all.

Guys, no arguments from me...its the bloody mrkt you have to convince!