Member Info for JohnLewis79

Indeed Lawrence only 104•9m outstanding and up from (94m?) when I first invested also attracted me to PAT when I was assessing 2 other goldies. I would never invest in a small cap Aim Co with a billion in issue, a red flag to me of a Co addicted to tapping investors for free cash. Try making eps nos on a billion plus, assuming your even turning a coin!

Some say that a small free float makes Aim companies illiquid. Not so, in fact quite a few of the top 25 Aim traded companies are valued at under £50m with (SII) well South of 500m. For instance Volex at no 25 has 159m in issue. For sure there must be some microcaps that are illiquid but if the demand warrants issuing more shares...? Go forth and multiply.

Atm jobbers are managing demand and low bargains. If I was a jobber I'd be very worried how I would manage the mrkt if PAT suddenly took off into thousands of shares a day. Could be they think PAT will never become another GGP when it was the darling of pis hitting 35 back in 2020. Even at c.13 current it's valued at £510m and that's a hell of a lot shares looking for a home!

Time for a pint and drown my sorrows on another abysmal Eng performance.

Agree Lawrence H whichever way one calculates the nos they are going to be substantial to PAT's holders. Of course the mrkt may disagree on the 'orphan' status valuation us pis attribute to our assets....they usually do.

Strange as it may seem the better a company's prospects the less relationship the price of its shares will have to book value or determining intrinsic value due to the changing moods of the mrkt. This really means the better the quality of assets the more speculative the shares will be and will enable the investor to profit from mis'pricing. As bear mrkts (as we understand them) or corrections enable investors to buy the 'low' part of the equation investors have to have the emotional discipline to wait their opportunity. We usually do this by averaging down or as I prefer to say by adding to a losing position hoping the averaging up part will get you out of a hole. My record in this regard is 3/7 on the upside which more than compensated me.

We are told by the experts to buy shares selling at close to their tangible asset value or below if possible or no more than 1/3 above that figure. Because the average pis cannot trade successfully price movements by trying to forecast them, ie buy low / sell high, sounds easy but few manage it let alone forecast it.

So in PATs case, still in the very early stage of assessing GIG as to ozs and grades how are we to calculate fair value. Why is their such a huge discrepancy between our value estimates, Allenbys and the Mrkts? In the former 100+, the latter 13 with Allenby mid 34?

As we are a good few years away from ever pouring gold, prices will inevitably be all over the place buffeted by supply & demand, POG, mrkt sentiment etc...In other words a bit of a lottery as to fair value if indeed their is such a thing at this stage of proceedings. If the mrkt thinks 600-1m ozs of decent AU grades is worth 'nothing' an ounce there is something amiss...oops there worth between $6 and $11m.

What we are all agreed upon is the current price bears little resemblance to GIG value (what else are we value PAT at). Mr Market disagrees with our value estimates putting a garage sale price on the Co of c.£14m which imo is no more than a stab in the dark or the slot the roulette ball fell into yesterday.

Tomorrow Mr Mrkt might value us at £100m you just dont know such are the vicissitudes of mrkts valuing companies on the downside. This is our opportunity. I have more than 80% of my net worth invested here...oh no I hear you say.... Well...., PAT is my no 1 stock why would I put more money into my no 2, 3 or 4 chancing diwors-ifying which I surely would? Makes no sense to me. All your eggs in one basket?.....never, ever do that they say....so call me a crackpot until I hit the jackpot
Morning all.

We have (8) WA projects in various stages of drilling. GID (gold in ground) at the very worst way will be c.1-2 m ozs. So at current prices that's c.£1•359bn which equates to a mrkt cap of over 1200p at the mean.

OK,....loads of costs etc to be taken off and plenty of risk but that's a hell of a margin of safety on offer for a major to get involved either by partnership or an outright agreed take over.

While 2021 had too many under'developed projects & the knockback on Bhukia to be the "Year of PAT" next year could be transformational for the companies share holders. Having miscalculated my account holdings (missed a £600 free carry, hic,hic)..... my avc is •25 above mid now so feeling a lot better even at this Carey St price.

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WTI $70•29
10ytb 1•407%

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Close:- Oil $72•87. Vix 21•57.
Gold $1799. Copper $4•290.
Palm $1275. Silver $22•360.
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Not a good week for PAT the shares off 13% at 13•5, lack of news flow and pre Xmas indigestion saw to volumes & deals way lower than recent. Santa looks to have sleighed right past us this year so here's hoping the New Year gets off to a flyer! Buyers in at the HY stage gave done reasonably well if held since June.

Gold flattered hitting a 3 week high of $1816 but came off during the afternoon to close at $1799 up $16 on the week. With no major economic news to impact gold, investors returned to safe haven status supported by risk-on equities, omicron and inflation concerns.

Wk50
PAT
------
Trades 32
Vol 385k
Buy 044k
Sell 341k
Ratio c.8:1
Sell 88%
Av Buy c.11,000
Av Sell c.12,180
Wk -13%
30 day -14%
Ytd -59%
52 -21%
------
Cora -8%
Hum -2%
Grl +1%
Orr -8%
RR -5%
------

Ftse -22
Aim -29
------
Morning all.

etj7777 well 2022 can hardly be worse than this year with our sp down c.58%! Holders have lots to look forward to so maybe the sp will be up 58% next year with small gold expos back in favour.

Mickey1122.... does MB still love a Friday RNS?

Big tech pulled the mrkt down, Nvidia off 6%, Apple 3% and Msoft 2% took the Nsdq down 426 points as investors switched out of tech into more economically sensitive sectors following the Fed preparing to end Bond purchases and raise rates in 2022.

While the SP 500 lost ground 7/11 sectors were up led by financials, energy and materials, the Dow trimmed 150 point losses to close 30 lower. Buys outpaced sells by 1•38:1 on 11bn traded.

DJ -30 (35,898)
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Gold Bugs +12 (248)

Latest:- Oil $74•44. Vix 20•57.
Gold $1804. Copper $4•309.
Palm $1275. Silver $22•480.
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Yuan 6•367. FF -34. DF -65.

******

The BOE unexpectedly raised UK rates from 0•1% to 0•25% the first time in 3 years by an 8-1 majority of the MPC.
Inflation worries fuelled the rise despite surging omicron cases, the hit to household mortgages, Co borrowing costs and cost of living increases, the Bank felt it safe to raise rates at this time.

******

Cheers Prof, take your points into consideration. I'm not one for baling on suppositions or unfounded assumptions, it's just...well you know the score.... and no Chrissy bonus from Santa!!

As if our current sp is not covid infected, I came home from the pub to find one of the upstairs tenants has covid quiet badly, his mate is off to Wales while the going is good for Xmas, and the couple downstairs are infected to boot! Jeeeeez! Me next?
Nah! Never happens to one does it?

Must admit I didn't take much positiveness from the Profs post yesterday. Of course he was tentative on Bhukia and JVP as you would expect. So no Chrissy present for holders this year.

I would have hoped to hear news on the Court Case which was due to be heard this week so that's likely to have been adjourned and put back to a later date. The Govt don't seem minded to get a "hurry up" which is good news for the lawyers.

Kalaka is unlikely to give the sp a boost if the past is anything to go by and with Bhukia & JVP still undecided I'm reducing my year end 25p target to 15-17p.

Wall ended sharply higher yesterday after 2 days of losses (427) after the Fed reported it would end its pandemic-era bond purchases in March. The Fed said its inflation target had been met pointing to possibly 3 int rate increases in 2022. Rate rises across Asia and Europe would soon follow. Likely these have been already priced in by the mrkts as Asia bourses took the news well, Tokyo up 520 and Shanghai gaining 10. Australia didn't follow Asia the ASX200 off 36 near close of play.

The Fed's upbeat tone on the economy prompted a late surge on the Dow. Having been 155 lower in morning trade the index took off late on adding c.280 with techs up c.3% (Apple $180 R). Volumes were well above the daily average of (11bn) at 12•2bn traded with buys outpacing sells by 1•85:1.

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Latest:- Oil $74•58. Vix 19•29.
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Yuan 6•366. FF +61. DF +27.
Morning all.

There's little positive momentum share volume wise wk-t-d, as sellers outpace buys 90-1 on very few trades.
Hope MB has some news lined up as we only have 7 trading days to Xmas.

Afraid that was a sell fitzy66. The only buy today was 12 @ 14.....unless it was yours.

Hum just updated on Yanfolia Mine operations, have AISC of $1490-$1590. Also reported a lower nos/ozs than the last guided range of c.100k ozs. Oh dear....tin hats at open if your invested!

Aim stocks generally are becoming a lot more liquid and while some companies attract few deals at the top end of the 25 most liquid stocks thousands of trades occur on a daily basis.

To make the top 25 you will need 14,000 trades a month. The most actively traded stocks are Boohoo, ITM Power and ASOS. Boohoo hit c.109,000 in October and at no 25 Volex with 13,966 deals has a mrkt cap of £47m.

It's noticeable how the nos of resource stocks in the list has fallen over the past decade. The top 10 would have included oil & gas, miners & exploration stocks. In Oct 2021 there is one in the top 10, Uranium investor Yellowcake.

The gold mining sector is unloved and most WA early stage goldies have been dumpers this year. In bargains dealt vol terms PAT recorded 314 last month.

A near 10% fall in PATs sp on small lot selling is typical of an Aim stock reliant in the main on a continuous supply of newsflow. I'm not too bothered as I expect a rebound on drill news, perhaps JVP and the longshot Bhukia license.

Either or both of the latter will see a smart turnaround in the sp above my 25 year end price. We know MB said Kalaka drill nos would be out late Dec so anyday now. I'm surprised nothing has surfaced from the latest Court hearing, or if it was even heard. The longer we wait the less likely we will hear anything material, this year anyways.

I know MB told holders to focus on our (8) WA projects which are big enough to be getting along with but you can't help wondering.....

Resources are took a beating yesterday, Gold off $14 to $1774 as investors price in rates at 1•5% in 2022 if not before. Gold bulls are having to take a back seat as equities cont to defy projected rate rises. Producer price inflation hit 9•6% and failed to attract safe haven buyers of the gold stuff.

Equity bulls might just be right at c.1%+ rates, companies are throwing off cash to investors and using borrowed funds to power prices higher to the consumer so why be out of the mrkt? Stocks especially techs might not be as over inflated as analysts think. For instance Apple can pretty much charge what they like....for now but that's not much of a consolation to the boffins in the Fed nervously worrying how to balance economic growth in the face of inflationary pressures.

The Dow fell 190 at open as investors are becoming more wary about the longterm outlook for equities given rate rises coming down the line, inflation heading into double figures, if not already there, the never ending covid backdrop (800,000 US fatalities) and supply roadblocks that when arriving at the stores find no buyers.

The US consumer will inevitably start to cut down on spending as prices run up which will be catastrophic for an economy reliant on the $ in their pocket getting circulated and is a 60% driver of GDP. What will the Fed do then?

So far equities have taken the unremitting bad news in their stride. To date they bounce back from 500-1000 falls and are way up on last year but a tipping point cannot be far away if the bears and siren calls from TV mrkt pundits are to be believed.

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Latest:- Oil $72•89. Vix 21•89
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Morning all.

Wall St started wk 50 in the red led down by cyclicals and growing concerns over the fast spreading omicrom virus. Cruise stocks came under the hammer, Norwegian, Carnival & Royal Caribbean all fell c.4% and Airlines were not spared investors dumping the index by c.3%. A late sell off knocked 200 off the Dow.
Most of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were lower, only Defensives, Real Estate & Utilities showing gains. Despite the sell of yesterday the 500 is up about 24% ytd and 28% over 52.

Apple dipped $4 to $175 later recovered to around par after JPMC raised its target price to $180 making the Co the highest valued on Wall St. Apple is close to becoming the first $3 trillion company by mrkt value in history and is worth c.1•5x the ftse 100. Apple hopes to roll out its first electric car in 2025 if they can overcome the 'self drive' bugs.

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Latest:- Oil $74•07. Vix 20•31.
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FF +22. DF +43.
Morning all.

Blimey past mid'day and not one trade...not sure if that's good or bad but at this time of year its inevitably going to slow down....but zero trades shuuuurely shome mistake.