Member Info for john46

Wids,

"What's not to like?"

28 yrs ago had the great fortune of spending 3 months in Northern Kenya/ Nanyuki , courtesy of our Army . Only watering hole we were allowed in doubled as a brothel . 3 girls at the bar were known as Faith , Hope and Charity . During daylight hours outside sold wooden carvings mimicking our Pat's , speak, see and hear no evil . Orders were no sex ! Within a week soldiers succumbed , minor epidemic ! Soon after Colonel bought Kenyas whole supply of condoms , just like now dust masks selling like Gold dust . Only yesterday went to my building supplier to buy some as spares , to be told some Chinese fella had bought the lot for £2k to ship to China , 1 hr before I arrived .

Brothels , more hassle than the pleasure given !

Anyway , your observations about CBs have been vindicated ! Not that it was rocket science , but folk need reminding of the bigger picture .

Wids ,

One for you bud .

"The very central banks that have led them into another liquidity trap. By printing, cutting rates, adding to the balance sheet at a record clip and even producing new record holdings of treasury bills the Fed has created a stock buying frenzy. In denial of its actions and the historic valuations that were created in the process the Fed caused a massive melt up in stocks and markets and now investors have paid the price as the Fed lost control:"

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/2020-crash-complacency-came-fall

The joys of having a day off and helping to save the world . Opportunities galore out there , just a matter of interpretation .

A must read for anyone who believes in capital preservation !

"But before we get into the details, a quick reminder: we have been warning for the past two months that positioning and pricing in equities was extremely elevated, with most investors "all-in" in many cases with record leverage, and increasingly disconnected from growth indicators. And just in case any of the abovementioned millennial "traders" claim there were no signs a crash was imminent, well... there were, like the market being the most overbought and complacent ever, with every investor all-in as recently as last month:"

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/after-markets-week-hell-heres-list-who-was-puking

Further confirmation of opportunities .

Corona-virus dangers

"And what's interesting here is and this is mostly due to the coronavirus impact that it has been impacting commodities overall, is how commodities have been acting, especially in January when copper and oil begin to decline significantly while gold actually rally. And if you look back in history of moves like they did in that month, it looks a lot like we're either in the death of the global financial crises there or right before the emerging markets collapse when oil, oil prices collapse as well.

Commodity prices collapse too and actually caused a correction here in the US. We think this is obviously looks a lot more like the great recession and in any in a lot of ways, but but it's just confirmation of our validation of a timing indicator."

Opportunities galore .

"Recession warning?

Now, it's close to 50% today, but what's important here is that every time we hit this 70% handle of the percentage of yield curve inversions, we've had a recession either coincided with it or follow in 1998 was close it was actually 69%. Not close, not exactly a 70.

But it's incredible. I mean, it's, it's really let's just look at a more visual part of this chart is just looking out here are all the kind of a busy chart but visually you can see all the possible spreads the 45 spreads and and how it really looks like we're at the late 2007. Here and it's just gives us another conviction of why this is a big trade and you must think about this and consider it what are the best assets that can perform in situations like this.

So when we look at the two year period, after every time that that more than 70% of the yield curve has inverted, which happened by the way, just back in August of last year, we, what we find is that the one of the best macro trades that you want to be in at that time is long precious metals versus short, the s&p 500. And in blue line here, you can see that on average over those next two years, the s&p 500 goes down 27%.

70% of global yield curve is inverted "

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-02-28/global-yield-curve-inversion-dire-warning-sign-crescat-capital

38p a given now .

"Fears are mounting that the coronavirus outbreak could send the American economy into a recession if it reaches pandemic levels, following the first confirmed death in the U.S.

A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the economy's total output, or GDP.

Although the virus has an estimated mortality rate of just 2 to 3 percent, the potential for economic disruption is severe in the event of a widespread outbreak, as evidenced by events in China where the virus originated.

'This is a case where in economic terms the cure is almost worse than the disease,'' said Jacob Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. 'When you quarantine cities ... you lose economic activity that you're not going to get back."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8059977/Coronavirus-outbreak-send-economy-RECESSION.html

Wids,

National Govs still under the impression incubation is only 2 weeks , despite all the resources at their disposal . Unbelievable !

Darth,

When absenteeism figures come out due to cv19 , you need to compare them in percentage terms / days lost to our main competitors . I am certain UK figures will be the lowest .

Boomer,

Supply chains are being affected , that's the crux of the matter . Levis pointed out yesterday some of his customers relocating from China to SE Asia , retooling time 3 months . They're loosing their edge , 20 yrs back re-tooling was a 6 week affair .

With reports now saying incubation period 24 to 27 days , further falls are to be anticipated .

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incubation-period/

Skier,

35% increment in 14 months without corresponding improvement in fundamentals should have rung alarm bells .

The black swan event was always on the table , it was just a question of when and what

LH,

"What next !!!"

Buybacks will continue in earnest , transferring wealth from shareholders to Employees . GS @ the helm , what else would you expect ?

Wids,

Should that be the case , the Chinese would have no incentive to flood the market with US debt , higher yields and less net worth upon resale . Hence negating that scenario .

Should the Chinese decide to offload US debt , nothing stopping FED from picking it up .

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Featured snippet from the web

"The U.S. debt to China is $1.07 trillion as of December 2019. ?1? That's 16% of the $6.7 trillion in Treasury bills, notes, and bonds held by foreign countries. The rest of the $23 trillion national debt is owned by either the American people or by the U.S. government itself."
https://www.thebalance.com › u-s-d...
US Debt to China: How Much, Reasons, What Could Happen

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8047655/Shocking-animation-shows-new-coronavirus-outpaced-SARS-MERS-Ebola.html

Wids,

Console yourself it's yet to reach mine . No laughing matter

Mus,

Michelle Obama loved Harvey Weinstein , misguided or what ?

Defo , misguided lunatics taken over asylum

It now transpires incubation period can be up to 24 days . Present 2 week quarantine just a knee jerk reaction . 48p a given again .

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8042535/Woman-diagnosed-coronavirus-testing-negative-EIGHT-TIMES-quarantine.html

Poultry related ,

2 medics performing swan lake following discharge of 6 cv19 patients .

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8042339/Hazmat-clad-coronavirus-medics-perform-hilarious-Swan-Lake-routine-send-six-patients.html

Some folk need to lighten up . Priorities !

Boris isn't the only one with foresight , Prince Philip takes the prize :-

"If it has got four legs and it is not a chair, if it has got two wings and it flies but is not an aeroplane, and if it swims and it is not a submarine, the Cantonese will eat it." (at a 1986 World Wildlife Fund meeting).