Member Info for john46

triflepig,

But what if we were to ignore that risk and try to figure out what equities would do, barring the worst-case scenario of a new coronavirus crisis?

"Ample liquidity should ultimately continue to act as a backstop, keep valuations inflated and feed the 'there is no alternative' mindset," Barclays analysts believe, warning investors not to fight the Fed as "more liquidity means higher P/E" ratios."

There is something called the law of diminishing returns , the more money our Govs plough into our system , the less benefit the populace experience , due to the high level of debt swirling in the Global system .

Lloy is most exposed to the above syndrome , talk of 60p within a yr is most misleading .

GS does it again , pump it up , 34p in lloy case and then dump , lets hope folk learn not to trust GS.

Seismic ,

You need to provide an objective link to confirm those previous financial figures are correct . On the extreme to me .We have a very humanitarian Gov , first time in my life I have witnessed Gov and FI s looking after the populace .

Darth,

Trump wants NIRP , we will all be on NIRP in due course , GOV advisors haven't done their research .

"A Liquidity Trap
A liquidity trap is an economic scenario in which households and investors sit on cash; either in short-term accounts or literally as cash on hand.

They might do this for a few reasons: they have no confidence that they can earn a higher rate of return by investing, they believe deflation is on the horizon (cash will increase in value relative to fixed assets), or deflation already exists. All three reasons are highly correlated, and under such circumstances, household and investor beliefs become reality.

In a liquidity trap, low interest rates, as a matter of monetary policy, become ineffective. People and investors simply don't spend or invest. They believe goods and services will be cheaper tomorrow, so they wait to consume, and they believe they can earn a better return by simply sitting on their money than by investing it. The Bank of Japan's discount rate was 0.5% for much of the 1990s, but it failed to stimulate the Japanese economy, and deflation persisted.6? (For more insight, see What does deflation mean to investors?)

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/japan-1990s-credit-crunch-liquidity-trap.asp

History always repeats itself .

Crystallball ,

"Seriously tho long term can't lose - imagine your money sat in the bank in cash for 2 years earning nothing."

Then explain to us what is the point of purchasing @ 35p , when the share is worth the same as 23/25 p range . Money in bank is safe , buying lloy now is a guaranteed 30% loss . Percentages going forward are critical !

For years I have been debating with the £1 Brigade , that 28p would come first . Our A1 now tells us there's a gap @ 23p , I honestly don't know how the heck I missed it , it will get closed in due course . @ 35p premium , to buy @23p is a 34% differential , equivalent to ~ 7 yrs of dividends . Judging by these figures buying the trough is critical !

It does look like the fools rally is over , GS induced , sucked in victims and then dumped .

Wids,

I'm certain you've noticed , the biggest Gob$hitts on here haven't put their name to EOY comp , can't believe some innocent souls worship their misguided advice .

Objective logic always wins in the end !

Enlightened? Corbin would have implemented the lockdown till Dec '20 . All decision making would have to go through the Committee , destroying British industry . Foresight folks !

Wids,

Thanks bud ! It looks like the professionals with all the tools at their disposal can't see a way out of this slump . First recorded suicide to my knowledge from this crisis , award winning investor who deep down must have acknowledged , fundamentals , inflation , compound interest couldn't save him from his gambling .

"An award-winning fund manager has been found dead near his £3.5million home after he went missing.

Guy Rushton, 36, who was married, was found in a barn near his house in Cranborne Chase, Wiltshire, hours after being classified as missing on May 22.

Rushton worked at Polar Capital, a London-based asset management firm, and had won industry awards, including fund manager of the year in 2018. "

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8373601/Award-winning-investor-36-dead-barn-near-3-5m-home.html

Trenners,

GS target of 34p means they'll offload tomorrow , can't believe they get to manipulate Global indeces. It's not investing any longer , it's gambling .

Lagarde extending debt stimulus by €600 BN will only enhance the speed at which we move into NIRP territory , bad for banks .

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1283793/Italy-economy-warning-Italy-national-debt-increase-eu-news-coronavirus

Presently , fools rally .

1ceman,

Good to hear from you . I'm glad you've survived bud !

Darth , the only thing that will sustain our housing market is affordability criteria . Our base @ .1 has avoided a catastrophe . As mentioned on here on several occasions , I have advised folks to go with SVR , my men can clock up all the hrs they can manage . As a nation we have to ensure there is trust in Sterling going forward , otherwise it is the end .

Lloy above 28p is overpriced , will self correct in due course . Prospect of no Div for 3 yrs minimum whilst it rebuilds CETs . "Help to buy " , distorted market forces to which lloy was primary beneficiary , now paying the price for such market manipulation . Lloy was complicit in feeding the housing market frenzy , to which it's now a victim . We've been here before , history soon forgotten !

ERV/ off topic ,

Unless your initials are J Mc C , can't imagine we've crossed paths .

Please keep well !!

ERV /off topic .

Yes , I live in Leeds . Furloughed my men 2 months back , as the law stated , they're all in their 30's , my second crew , first crew now in high 70's and 80's and retired , all outstanding workmen/ tradesmen . My present crew have young families so I had to take over their respective maintenance roles . Behind my back , they had a conference call , whereby they discussed returning to work . Spokesperson then phoned me telling me of team decision .I Would only agree to return to work once I had a disclaimer from them all , all arrived within 2 hrs . Sheepscar Sun 7'40 am , that was on way to work . On account of work backlog , as of yesterday just did 21 days on trot so have chosen to take today off , hence my saving the world mantra .

Three quarters of my men have a BTL , plus their personal home , with the opportunities facing us many are already saving towards their third , hence why they're willing to work 7 days a week . It will take us till this Sept to clear our backlog , sufficient time for them to save deposit for third BTL . It's all a question of work ethic and mindset . All my workforce are British .

As a nation , following this mess , we shall prevail , AGAIN !

Keep well !!!

ERV,

Spot on , it's all a question of PMA ( positive mental attitude ) , there are opportunities galore out there , carillon , TCG , someone will fill those gaps with better management , business is cut throat these days . The advantage we have as a nation is an independent CB , whereby our national assets are not placed in trust to an unaccountable entity like the ECB .

Darth,

There is a major disconnect between events on the ground and equity prices . Our pension funds have invested £20 BN in lloy when Osborne sold Gov stake , and now they're sat on major capital loss and no return . These are the folks we pay six figure salaries to look after our retirement and they give the naive impression equities will always head North . They have proved themselves to be blinkered by not taking into account the bigger picture , markets have to correct at some stage .

Only time will tell if US algos are distorting DOW . Remember , during TGF crash , US banks held up the DOW long enough for them to offload their positions . Unethical !

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/16/lloyds-taxpayer-shares-bank-hbos-public-stake

Fontenoy,

I'm simply trying to save investors money .

Will Birg hit €1 in 2021 in your eyes ?

Fontenoy,

"This is episode is not even comparable with WW2 in terms of financial damage.... It is worse. "

Following end of WW2 UK debt to GDP was 500% , final instalment paid to US in 1995 . The cost of this virus is minuscule in comparison , UK debt to GDP might rise to 100 % temporarily , but we have the luxury of an independent CB .

1/1 '21 , the dawn of a new era , devaluation , through natural market forces , sentiment rather than manipulation , Eire will price itself out of a proportion of our market .

Birg will only hit €4 when UK is on renewables and Eire makes use of Gulf Stream on its West Coast . Not rocket science ! National self financing is the order of the day going forward !