Member Info for John2015

cp meanwhile .....

MM merciless shake to acquire cheap shares and sell them to those buying at a nice profit.

Looking at the milestones we seem to be making good ( although much delayed - through no fault of the company ) progress.
Next events to look for after the OCM (Date tba) and SCIR Meeting 02/11 both of which will provide much more detail are the CH1 Spud, hopefully no later than Q1 2021 and acquisition of 3d data.
The detail from the OCM and SCIR meetings should provide enough info to make a reasonable stab at cashflow, Projected NPV and therefore some sort of forecast sp, I think.
Willing to have a go - anybody else who knows how, (probably far better than me), prepared to have a stab at it ?
This should give us a better idea of what might be a conservative sp, based on 40MMcf/d initially and then potentially more realistic mid term sp based on 140MMcf/d or more ultimately.

$100,000 a day is around $40m a year.

Thanks Fantom so around $100,000 a day or $40m a year looks like a reasonable figure.

SCIR proportion is 25% of 140MMcf/6000 = 23,333 (for ease say 6000 boepd) which x $40 would be $240,000 a day.
However on further thought the price per boepd should presumably be based on the Henry Hub natural gas price per MMBtu $2.94 ?
So then 1 Barrel of Oil = 5.8MBtu so the calculation might be 6000 x 5.8 x $2.94 ( or 6000 x $17.052 ) = $102,312 a day ?
I have no doubt there will be someone out there who can tell me if this is anywhere near correct. Feedback welcome.

Thanks bf

Correction to my earlier post AEX proportion is 25% 23,333 (for ease say 6000 boepd) which x $40 would be $240,000 a day not $960,000 !
However on further thought the price per boepd should presumably be based on the Henry Hub natural gas price per MMBtu $2.94 ?
So then 1 Barrel of Oil = 5.8MBtu so the calculation might be 6000 x 5.8 x $2.94 ( or 6000 x $17.052 ) = $102,312 a day ?
I have no doubt there will be someone out there who can tell me if this is anywhere near correct. Feedback welcome.

Trying to get a handle on production value.
P50 production level is estimated to be 140MMcf/d.
1 bo = 6000 cf gas so 140,000,000Mcf/d divided by 6000 = 23,333 boepd ?
Presumably this is split 50% APT and 25% each to AEX & SCIR ( or whoever buys it from them )
Therefore AEX share is say 6000 boepd @ $40 a barrel or $960,000 ?
Let me know if the conversion is correct - feedback is welcome whether I'm right or wrong.

Maybe I'm just having a wobble, but after seeing 1.5+ and watching it slide back ( having repeated that experience many times in the last 3 years and with a break even of 1.52 I found the reaction to the farmout news on Friday unsettling.
The last thing I want to do is sit tight and get locked in again but having been at breakeven on the 16/10 and now down 19% again ( was75% ) a reaction like that and the prospect of it sliding if news is delayed is making me twitchy.
The head says hold the heart is saying run for it !

would end once the farmout was approved and signed off.
Instead the market reaction was a loud yawn, SOLO have added another week of uncertainty by announcing their meeting on 02/11 and APT have chucked another brick in the pond by saying there will be an Operating Committee meeting “shortly”
"APT, as the new operator of the Ruvuma PSA, intends to call an Operating Committee Meeting (OCM) shortly, where it is expected that they will formally present their programme and schedule for the drilling of the Chikumbi-1 well and the 3D seismic acquisition programme."
So now we have two more delays, one of an indeterminate nature and both giving traders, speculators and the market generally another week, more to trash the sp.
The farmout was meant to be the big news yet nothing happened( I know there was big rise in anticipation - buy on the rumour, sell on the news) but what happens while we wait ? The delay before these next two events has all the potential to push the sp way back, before they do whatever they will do, to the sp ( it should be positive but what if its not ?).
Can't believe they've managed to pull one rabbit out of the hat and stuff two more in it.

Depends whether they announce it in one go, on one day, or hint at it several times, delay announcments, tell part of the story and finally, when everybody is bored to death, actually do it I suppose.
Disappointed at the way it was handled and the reaction, ( complete non reaction ), to what should have been, (is), epic news.
Ah well Monday is another day Good Weekend all.

Putting the Bubbly away, forget the steak dinner today - its fish and chips again.

Sorry 0.005

0.05 or 0.38% Blue - it only took a farmout sign off !

Yet - that is.

and now they've creamed off their take we can have some ( but not as much).

Wonder why - its not like the constant rise and fall ( ineptly orchestrated by the bod/tanzanian government and last but not least our PR people ) made it look like the easiest way to make any money out of it.
Cracking job Grommet.

Can't get a price to buy - but you can sell 50,000 or 100,000 at 1.16.
Tells you all you need to know the MM's are obviously hoovering up shares so presumably a big buy in the background at a price that makes paying 1.16 worthwhile.
The reported figures are fantasy..

Waited 36 a few more ain't going to hurt.