Member Info for John2015

Surginator No wonder the sp dropped into the close.

Lots of them fairly small sales, PI's ? - why would they sell now and take such a hit unless its the last of those with any profit left ?

Shorts are down so it looks that way.
See lots of late reported negative ( - figure ) sales popping up - dummies ? what does that mean ?

WD 40 beat me to it !

at 16:08 4,000,000 shares at 4.33 = £173,058

Thanks to myosotis for the cost of constructing the mineshaft. If the mineshaft is constructed much of the perceived construction risk is dealt with. ( repeated from 22:54 yesterday )
Investor figures for 13mta NPV 50% RISKED £5.9BN 2021 £8.7BN 2024 - this may be delayed 12 months ?
Cost of completing mineshaft past aquifer (1 sbr to ground zero) $300mn ( say £250m )
£250m at (A) 4p per share 6.25bn shares or (B) 5p 5bn shares plus 7bn in issue = 13.25bn or 12 bn shares
Possible sp 2021 (A) could be £5.9bn over 13.25bn = 44.5p or (B) 5.9/12 = 49.2p
Or sp 2024 (A) could be £8.7bn over 13.25bn = 65.6p or (B) 8.7/12 = 72.5p
This assumes all other costs are covered by debt. The cost of completing the mineshaft to investor satisfaction may be more than £250m. No doubt other factors could affect NPV both positively and negatively.
Liberum calculated ( for a cost of $500m or £400m approx @ 5p per share ) an sp of 38p so their figure looks slightly , but not wildly optimistic ? A lot depends of course on 1) the amount we need to raise and 2) at what sp it is raised.
Anyway my starter for 10 - if anybody can get hold of liberums note we could check in more detail ?
As always feedback welcome - perhaps between us we can come up with a reasonable expectation supported by calculation rather than guesses ? GLA LTH

Rainy as I understand it the plan is to concentrate on construction of the main shaft ( and consequently de-risking the whole project to a great extent ). This can be achieved via a cash raise, or joint venture and consensus seems to be can be done for around £250 m.
Once this is done bonds may well be much easier and cheaper to raise. So there is hope yet IMO.
GLA LTH.

I like gasladys logic so 04/10

Thornback 7.006bn its at the top of the page.

PAAA well said and spot on. The level some on here will stoop to beggars belief.

Bellers worth a try - maybe they have a plan in progress ? Here's hoping.

AFTER A LONG DAY MY ATTEMPT TO UNDERSTAND THE LIBERUM CALCULATION AS PROMISED
Investor figures for 13mta NPV 50% RISKED £5.9BN 2021 £8.7BN 2024 - this may be delayed 12 months ?
Cost of completing mineshaft past aquifer (1 sbr to ground zero) $300mn ( say £250m )
£250m at (A) 4p per share 6.25bn shares or (B) 5p 5bn shares plus 7bn in issue = 13.25bn or 12 bn shares
Possible sp 2021 (A) could be £5.9bn over 13.25bn = 44.5p or (B) 5.9/12 = 49.2p
Or sp 2024 (A) could be £8.7bn over 13.25bn = 65.6p or (B) 8.7/12 = 72.5p
This assumes all other costs are covered by debt. The cost of completing the mineshaft to investor satisfaction may be more than £250m. No doubt other factors could affect NPV both positively and negatively.
Liberum calculated ( for a cost of $500m or £400m approx @ 5p per share ) an sp of 38p so their figure looks slightly , but not wildly optimistic ? A lot depends of course on 1) the amount we need to raise and 2) at what sp it is raised.
Anyway my starter for 10 - if anybody can get hold of liberums note we could check in more detail ?
As always feedback welcome - perhaps between us we can come up with a reasonable expectation supported by calculation rather than guesses ? GLA LTH

did anybody manage to get a copy of yesterdays investors note from Liberum ?

reckless 15:20 well said excellent post.

Reckless “Lastly, what I don't understand is how we could manage to place $400 million of bonds (admittedly convertible) in Nov 2016, when all we had was planning permission and some rather nice moorland, and yet we cannot now raise only 20% more that that when the project has advanced so far and is going so well, the product has been proved through research and ICL, and we have the TorPs to prove demand. What am I missing?”
The same thoughts have crossed my mind. I can't see whats so difficult now that wasn't then. Anybody got any comments ?

Also does anybody have a cost for construction of the main shaft ? Liberum seem to suggest it would cost $500m, which seems a lot ?

Have to go into London today but hoping to get time to check some of the calculations later today or tomorrow. Does anybody know how to get a copy of the brokers (Liberum) note ?
It would be useful to see how they arrive at NPV see if it matches investor presentations figures for 13mta and check the sp calculations.
The article itself is well worth a read. GLA LTH.

Does anybody have a copy of the Liberum note to Investors running the numbers , mentioned in Appychaps link ?

Appychap thanks for the link I have been trying to get some idea of the numbers. Shows the importance of giving the sp a little time to recover IMO and the impact of dilution.
Nevertheless we still seem to end up trying to raise $500m to $700m albeit via equity rather than debt which it could be argued we should have done in the first place, unpopular as that might have been. Where we are now is arguably worse.
Time to go away and think about the calculations.

LMR are back at 0.58% and TT International have appeared at 050% giving a revised figure of 7.20%.
I bet ( no pun intended ) they're having a great time.