Member Info for johandesilva

TLWilliams, I wonder though if we are right to lower our expectations given the fall.

Rxdav, I follow some of your stocks and I like your approach, it is similar to mine. Like me though you need to be less defensive. Some of the poster here like bandit1 was totally right in challenging your comments regarding bringing in stocks like Carilion and Capita onto the same sentence as Vodafone. I suspect bandit1 knows how to read a balance sheet to a greater detail especially regarding free cash flow (FCF). Many doomsayers of VOD including publications like Monthly Fool only look to the dividend cover and the debt. What they don't understand and Bill on iii was great at explaining this better than me, is the FCF is significantly high and while it could have been used to pay of debt, the company rightly uses this money for significant projects and acquisitions.

The company remains a slow grower now but it is growing with an extremely high forecast for FY20. Due to Euro issues if they meet half the target of I would be happy.

Going now into my personal opinion, the fabric of Euro is perhaps the biggest risk. I believe Trump and Putin also see this and would welcome the decoupling of the EU. Given the defence nature of VOD I believe this is a risk worth taking.

As we know the directors together hold only 50,000 pounds worth of shares. Given that George Morris and Co have been together here for a very long time this really is unacceptable. I am not a wealthy person but even after 3 years at the company I work for, I hold half as much! (OK - I need to de-risk there!)

After the next deal I want those directors to buy these stocks at which time the price is much higher.

I also urge the suffers here to consider Syncona (LSE:SYNC) to manage their small-cap UK healthcare and this fund is supported by Cancer Research UK a major shareholder.

I raise my hand up and say by replying we gave LC the fuel to post even more.

Now we are left wondering how long (and ideally just after divi reinvestment) we will take to go back to 200p+ level where it belongs for much of the year. So for divi reinvestment, I am happy for the share price to stay low but sods law this will shoot up before we get the chance.

Bahlt, by switching to TalkTalk (4% growth in revenues much higher than VOD results) you are moving from Europe to UK. This could be a move that pays off in the long run if you see UK outperform Europe. I presume also TalkTalk are moving at the same rate as VOD level in terms of 5G? I also presume TalkTalk have a similar 15% growth forecasted for 2020? I also presume TalkTalk have FCF for wiggle room.

Also consider how much is factored into the share price already. Investing is never easy and one should never invest looking for a quick buck. IMHO a hard brexit will hammer TalkTalk over VOD while a deal would help UK PLC stocks recover (even VOD).

A good deal then no placing required as we will get lots of cash.

If we get a bad deal then the share price will still be much higher for a placing. I don't know how high, just much higher.

char333, the dividend will be cut because you think so? That is very amusing. The dividend is well covered by FCF and you know it! So it won't be cut just because this sector is being hammered or because you think so. These opportunities do not come around often. Time to continue to buy and reinvest dividend for a sector-specific recovery.

That trade should be large enough relatively to the volume and typical retail Pi buy for me to jot down. Buy or sell doesn't bother me, it's the level that big trades happen is what I jot down. Anything less I often add, anything more I may consider.

"If interest rates stay on hold then no doubt you will get the HL punters buying for the div yield"
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Not my area of expertise but have always imagined that the wages of ordinary workers and the ability to pay off the mortgage will determine how high these interest rates go.

"The TUC general secretary, Frances O’Grady, said: “With wage growth stalling, now is not the time to hike interest rates. Household budgets are still under huge pressure.”"
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/18/uk-interest-rate-rise-in-doubt-as-inflation-stays-at-24

Looking toward growth the European Commission websites interactive map is worth a visit:
"Growth is set to remain strong in 2018 and 2019, at 2.1% this year and 2% next year in both the EU and the euro area." https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-forecasts/summer-2018-interim-economic-forecast-resilient-growth-amid-increased-uncertainty_en

"7.4% div sounds good of course but that shows concern rather than showing confidence in all fairness"
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Agree, we are all experienced enough to agree that 7.4% div is usually priced to indicate a skeleton in the closet, a dividend cut due to poor results on the 25th, or worse mismanagement in reporting as was the case at Capita or at worst Carillion that fuel the bears.

Place your money to bet.

With profits expected to resume a northwards path from next year of 15% improvement (should add 30p+ to future highs hence the 270p broker targets) I am thinking and betting that this is nothing more than Euro/Brexit and collaboration between Putin and Trump to tackle the new threat of a fast-growing Europe in the years to come.

There is a good article in Forbs:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/roystonwild/2018/07/12/vodafone-group-yields-more-than-7-but-it-isnt-the-only-dividend-share-you-should-snap-up-today/#4277c02317b0

char333, broker views are 1-year targets and the good work Vodafone have done has an impressive forecast for 2020 so it is possible. Remember Brexit will be out of the way by then! (or will it, lol)

Most likely the amount of dividend will be released with the trading update on Wednesday 25th of this month.

"Deutsche Bank today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Vodafone Group PLC (LON:VOD) and cut its price target to 275p (from 280p)."
I wonder if the 5p reduction is a result of the European growth downgrade. 275p is an optimistic 1-year target I think most of us here are far more conservative on a 1 year view.

I have just added a trading batch at 179.8p that I hope to sell this year keeping my longer term holdings alone.

"This message has been filtered, please adjust your filters to view"
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Like many on here I get the above for LastCall's messages. Thank you all for the tip and I apologise for fueling his posts. You can not have a debate with idiot with a misguided agenda.

I see TalkTalk surges after announcing a net 80,000 new broadband customers. I am a retail customer of Vodafone broadband and it is better and just as competitive as TalkTalk. Vodafone has an opportunity to eat into market share here.

LastCall, let's all agree to disagree and come back at the end of the year or a time frame of your choice?

"thank you pokerchips....the bear game...it ain't all fundamentals"
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So LastCall where is the collapse roomer? Until then the fundamentals remain strong and prevent your target. What is there not to get?

My edit: Again there has to be something catastrophic with the company forecasts or fundamentals such as in the case of for example Carillion for the SP to be targeting 140p.

LastCall:

"I've given technical reasons its a sell" - I don't recall you doing this. The actual technical fib retracement line is at 178p it needs to fall under this to even think about 140p by which time there has to be something catastrophic with the company forecasts or fundamentals and you would be catching a falling knife if you do buy at 140p.

"Just looking for those who disagree to give me the fundamentals, rather then blast my inexperience."
- I believe we have given you guidance to the fundamentals (FCF, dividend, forcasts etc..) that can also be found in the financial reports on the website. Again there has to be something catastrophic with the company forecasts or fundamentals such as in the case of for example Carillion.

"because 259 pennies lower "
LastCall, you consistently miss the Verizon Sale. I was buying all the way to 300p does this mean I am down on my investment? Your lack of experience showing here if you think we are down. 180p is pretty much bottom. I am bearish from 230p+. Go read some news articles from 2014.

Perhaps because we VOD investors are a very experienced bunch. Close any shorts and move on.

LastCall, only buy if you have a minimum 2-month view. Buy and forget.