Member Info for johandesilva

Fish2, what would you have done with the free cash flow?

Net debt: £2.7bn. The 500 million was recently refinanced and I believe next there is the £700m due Jan 2022 (rate 2.88%) then £570m due July (rate 5.5%).

Share price outcomes because of debt is extremely wide depending on what valuation model you use. Next year could see new lows or highs of 200p but in the very long run if the share price can do 4, 5, 6 pounds as the value of the AA without the debt would be multiples. There is plenty of cash flow but an increase in profits would put the AA in a strong position going forward to support more of a dividend that results in a bigger share price that results in a rights issue for the £700m. In my eyes this is a good option.

There needs to be a strategy for 2022...

It is not just IT spend. If you look they are spending on more frontline staff to improve the service. Despite competitors like the RAC continue to have longer waiting times (see Watchdog a couple of weeks ago) the AA has the best service and this will continue to improve. There will also be a bit of reduced capital expenditure to come in year two.

woody2002, perhaps a poor choice of words by me. 401 feels dramatical like it has dropped down the pecking order and if the deal with some of these 5 or 6 companies happens the upfront payment level sounds questionable. It is this upfront payment that will add dramatically add to the E/V and allow fundraising for 201 at a much higher share price than where we are. The value of 201 is off the scale and is why I will continue to hold in the long run.

For investors like me who don't visit the forum to chat daily I missed this video:
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/video/valirx-val-dr-george-morris-chief-operations-officer

VAL201 will be the money maker for this company given the market. It is obvious to me the company has given up on 401.

There are multiple deals for each product potentially. What I don't get is that BOD and many of us agree that even a bad deal is better than no deal. Just to give s that cash injection and an upper hand. So why no deal yet. This is sadly how biopharma stocks work.

Many investors don't know what they are doing. Investing is not for the PI as most PI's do not have a balance enough portfolio. Biopharma (like allot of AIM) is an incredible black hole but one where I knew the risks and while this is not a charity we are here to make money on that one chance in 10, I am happy with the progress and knowing that Valirx can do some good. Today I am posting because I know yet another person with Cancer and it is pancreatic cancer and it reminded me of this stock and not because I am annoyed at my paper losses.

GoodBadUgly, I have experienced this pattern in VOD, especially before Verizon Wireless deal. Many like me have bought in a little too early.

Next fundraising in January.

It is impossible to put a value on the upside. The trendy immunotherapies of the competition between the top two (Bristol-Myers Squibb and Merck) are to generate together revenue topping $8 billion. The BOD is not confident of a good deal instead saying any deal will do.... and I have to agree with them. A deal on 401 before Christmas will do so we can progress the other products from a position of strength.

woody2002 wrote: "Kinda feels a little troll like considering the positives of the science here."
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Agree it does, but my intention was trying to understanding the underlining cause of the drop as value of a stock should always win. Yes I bought competition up once before and wondered if I would find any agreement a second time. I believe 401 is a drug would compliment immunotherapy not just prolong the inevitable. I have not researched the other drugs due to lack of time but will be starting to do so.

In particular look at the chart over recent years...

Evolution and Future of Cancer Treatments
Dec 15, 2016 By Hope Cristol
More effective, less toxic treatments will slash the number of deaths from cancer
https://medium.com/what-will-it-take-to-end-cancer/evolution-and-future-of-cancer-treatments-7241c4a005a5

As a relatively new investor the reasons the share price is down IMHO are:

1. The fundraising is done at too much of a discount. I have been in stocks where the fundraising was done at a premium! But this could be because of point 2.

2. Related to the above, 401 is old type therapy and investment is heading towards immunotherapy. Countless drug treatments are at various stages of development today and competition is very high.

We are all very opinionated here and I include myself. Biophama is a complex area of investment.

The thing about the negative posters was that the reasons for the predictions given were unfounded blaming fundamentals leaving to dividend cuts etc... That is why we had to defend VOD.

danielh thanks for explanation.

Let's hope the bottom us behind us. Hope to trade so some before the end of the year and gain some more shares before cr 230p target leaving a more speculative 260p for the next guy.

"The Pound goes higher might kick things off again"
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I have wondered about this in relation to VOD because there are two factors. The obvious one is that we are mostly paid in Euros but the other factor that nobody appears to talk about the strong US dollar as we are listed in the US they must have dumped VOD.

For those like me who often miss these things as we don't follow our stocks on a daily baisis...

Commercial discussions for ValiRx's lead cancer drug progressing 'rapidly'
06 Sep 2018
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/10377/commercial-discussions-for-valirx-s-lead-cancer-drug-progressing-rapidly--10377.html

I presume immunotherapy based treatments are still done after chemotherapy and regression. Sadly chemotherapy is not going to go away because of immunotherapy development, is it?

I presume you can all see what I am getting at. The VAL share price I think has suffered because competitors are using immunotherapy treatment types for cancer that has gained widespread importance in recent years. And a better shareprice. For example see Regen BioPharma, Inc. (OTC :RGBP ), Palatin Technologies, Inc. (NYSE :PTN ), Agenus Inc. (NASDAQ :AGEN ), BioLineRx Ltd. (NASDAQ :BLRX ), Ziopharm Oncology, Inc. (NASDAQ :ZIOP ).

The immunotherapy market valued at USD 57.2 Billion in 2017 and is expected to reach USD 166.7 Billion by 2025. But there is lots of competition making immunotherapy high risk.

I am hoping someone more knowledgeable is going to stop my posts or apply credibility (a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing, perhaps I should be happy like Oxmil that this is a "drug"). This is why I invest in biotec funds avoiding individual stocks.

When immunotherapy is given to a patient it will need or benefit really with something like VAL401 slowing down cancer while immunotherapy drugs is administered to the patient given time to work. Am I being hopeful or is VAL401 purely for end of life.

rutles, that is not Vodafone's fault but the payment gateway used. My company switch over to another payment gatway in the early hours.

Thank you Cynoman, Noise and bp82. The drug is an antipsychotic and while I am *not* knowledgeable on these matters, I presume it is suitable in combination with other drugs. For most important example, medical teams can administer VAL401 to allow time for upcoming immunology treatments to work. For me immunology is where the money and future of cancer appear to be seen.

What is VAL 401, is it a form of immunology or biological way of extending life?

"More fun watching paint dry !!"
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Mikeyh68, I don't think Vodafone is for you as this looks to be another VOD cycle in share price that takes months to recover.... but keep remembering VOD is is low risk. When many here sell out 200p those buying in at 200p will be target 230-260p.