Member Info for johandesilva

" VOD is so solid and you should check it’s debt profile."
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Totally manageable debt profile covered by FCF hence Liberty Global. If you don't like it what is the point of being here and chatting VOD down all the time? If you're going short then say so. If your holding for a cheaper price then the debt ain't going away. I continue to add on my targets set sub 200p.

"Once the divi is cut, VOD will rocket. The city will put a good spin on it saying money saved will be used to improve business. 200p is easy while 230p is reasonable.........we shall see."
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H-hi, Vodafone have hi FCF and are growing, so there is no need to cut the dividend. Vodafone invests their profits in generating growth and maintaining market position in B2B e.g. Liberty Global potential deal and in the past Verizon. The current issue with the share price is a sector (and possibly Brexit) issue see BT and TalkTalk.

This is probably the low. BT recovering.

"A divi of 4% is ok as long as SP rises and company cut costs."
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Cost cutting is the answer to all these large organisations woes. Companies like KPMG can really help drive down costs and investment and become a company like Blockbuster LLC. I can't wait for Vodafone to follow this practice. Give me an hour or so I will pop down to my local Blockbuster to see how well this has worked. Hang on, please... brb.

"Out of interest what caused the rise to 79p?"
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Anyone know what the Market Cap or better E/V was at 79p?

This will never get back up to that level despite the potential market. I suspect we would need to be valued at mid-cap levels the current BOD made up of medical professionals are not capable of taking us there. Even if there was I guarantee none of us will be around.

I have also reached an age where I promised myself not to invest any more in individual stocks preferring growth funds. VAL is the last throw of the AIM dice, I did once make 400% on SAR so it is possible.

LOL! lse2000, shares do go down as up you have patience. I am looking to add some at 175p. Bargain. Easily 200+ and harder 260p within 12 months.

Free cash flow (FCF) is what VOD is about and is why it is so misunderstood. They have so much of it they put it to good use. This summer is a great opportunity and I will be selling on the way up. Global issues will provide the volatility and the FCF will provide for safe trading.

Broken my own rules and add more VOD to make up 55% of my portfolio (rest remain in funds).

* August stock market sale will be over as fund managers return
* Liberty Global uncertainty will be cleared up (2018)
* Next ex-divi date to look forward (2018)
* A miraculous Brexit soft (2019)

If the pound is to languish around these levels I am head-scratching as to why the VOD share price. Probably the reason is we are also US-listed and the dollar has done so incredibly well they invest in their own (e.g. tech) companies, Surely this can not last and VOD could be poised for 260p+ this time next year.

I thought Elliot group are reported to somewhat be against the Liberty Global deal however that would be press speculation. Liberty does fit in with 5 year target to £3.

I started composing my own Syncona thread this morning failing to see this one I posted it much later - apologies!

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"Institutions normally can't invest in companies with a mcap of less than £50m."
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Syncona model allows them to invest in microcaps because they take a controlling majority share. All these micro caps make up 49%. I think this is a great fit.

Other biopharma funds also hold micro caps, 75% US stocks and are not suitable such as IBT and BIOG both on the LSE. They would not buy into VAL.

Noise, I honestly did not see your post on Thread today 11:19 when I posted my thoughts!

Great minds :-)

Noise, thanks for the heads up. I had a quick Google and the Cancer Research UK press release came up...
http://commercial.cancerresearchuk.org/valirx-acquires-global-rights-novel-compound-targeted-prostate-cancer

Note how time does fly because the cases of Prostate cancer (the most common cancer in men in the UK) has gone up from 35,000 cases when that was written to 40,000 new cases diagnosed every year!

Lung cancer is one of the most common and serious types of cancer. Around 44,500 people are diagnosed with the condition every year in the UK.

We must be talking global markets worth 6 billion and be growing but I know AIM for years, if something is too good to be true it usually is and the share register and YA money is a clear sign of us being clueless as to what is going on with the share price. Why is this Slater invested here? Where can we go to get the answers?

H-hi, we know the risks with Brexit to drag on to the deadline on March 29 2019. We also know the summer trading in August is low. I also know I have a relatively massive stake here approaching 50% of my non-pension portfolio (some of which is trading and some long-term) so I do feel the pain, it is pain I accept.

On the other hand, my chart does say mid-August recovery FWIW.

Google are phasing share prices out of the search engine since Google Finance was killed off.

For live prices set up a free account at tradingview.com and bookmark your porfolio on the right of the chart.

This is mine (though you do not see my portfolio on the right, just a load of funds I follow.
https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/P1aTy9Sp/

Wild speculation from me, however not within the realms of possibility if we have a genuinely good product. Syncona ltd (Cancer Research UK backer) have recently had one of their majority holdings in concentrated small cap portfolio go private and will need to address some balance.

If our product is brilliant then they could speculatively take a majority stake in VAL. They only hold a hand full but majority stake in primarily UK based biopharma (forming 49% of the portfolio with 51% in reserve as cash and funds).

This would be as good as a buyout if they are to offer us around 7p (£25m + Phase III paid for) be it even in Syncona shares. VAL's products are just as commercial as the other companies left in Syncona.

"Frankly I'd quite like someone to just buy out 401 and be rid of the albatross of future funding requirements."
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Noise, I would agree. They have already done the YA route so I guess their options are limited to death by loans or accepting a wonderful M&A.

Any partner will not underfund VAL as it would be in their interest that we are funded. A partner will not underfund us in order to get us on the cheap for M&A as this will result in catastrophic delays, and the fact we are already cheap means they would otherwise make an offer.

When I say "make an offer" this is a ramp without adding balance that we have nobody invested here apart from PI's. Only PI's have faith in this company. No institution or any member of the BOD have confidence in Valirx. What VAL really need is an activist shareholder. Is Nicholas Slater just a PI or one of these? As a relatively new shareholder, I am his holding was the only tick that gives me faith in the terrible shareholding register that I need to tick in order for me to buy.

The upfront payment or a mix of upfront and milestones will cover Phase III trials as a minimum "bad deal". A good deal will be large cash milestones depending on the commerciality of our products (someone here is welcome to do a study on this beyond what Obelix and I have done). I would be will to take part in fundraising for Valirix to conduct a study... actually don't we have a broker who IMHO should have done this already???? (anyone)

Obelix, I wonder if your father in law would have any insight over the lack of institutional holdings here. Just one institutional holder and I would be piling into here.

I also look at M&A activity in this space having been invested in VRP and a number of smallcap biopharma funds such as BIOG and IBT. The deals that do happen are similar in value dwarfing our market capitalisation, though obviously the larger the medical need the greater the negotiation leverage is. Has anyone quantified the need for our products?

Looks like the share price went up and now record highs! I am still in, botech sector as I still see value but totally understand than US stocks could be due a fall and this 85% North America. There are UK and European biopharmaceutical funds if the fundmangers to not switch.

Pokerchips, I like the way you look at the global market specifically the US. The way I look at stocks is that we are going through a transitional phase pumping money into US stocks (I hold a few tech funds) while looking to get rid to buy US/EU stocks like VOD and funds perhaps even erm Woody funds (but there are a lot better!).

This is my 2 year view and strategy, hold US and Japanese but looking to sell down by the end of the year. Buy UK/EU.

I don't frigging believe it. I suspected the SP would recover before dividend re-investment so I decided to hedge this and buy my dividend equivalent out of my own cash in a £1.50 on the first week of August (and pocket the actual divi into cash).