Member Info for JoeSoap

Slift. Nic7760 was incorrect in his first reply to you. He admitted that.
Unfortunately you have 'assumed' that the FP plot showing the trajectory of the 7z well is showing the depth of the well.
Alas, turning the page will give you the log data, Yep, goes beyond 1327m TVDSS.
The Seismic plot is scripted 'offset'.

HTH
joe
It would also put the #7 into the fault around 1368 to 1378. You will note the #7 plot is clipped, but all the fault lines appear (an assumption on my part) to have been corrected by inclining to where the drill found them. I don't believe they stop at closure, your first question iirc.

Slift,
I agree that they had used the word 'material' in the 8 July RNS.
The extract: "The 2017 Competent Person's Reports attributed independently certified reserves to the Lancaster EPS development and contingent resources associated with the overall West of Shetland portfolio. The outcome of the technical review may lead to a material downgrade of these contingent resource estimates."

However, that was specific, ' may lead to a material downgrade of these contingent resource estimates'.
It could then have an effect on the FFD.

The 6 August is for 'estimated reserves attributable to the Lancaster Early Production System' and upgrades the previous RNS to 'there will also be a material downgrade to estimated contingent resources across the West of Shetland portfolio.', now stated as a fact.
It could now have an effect on the amount recoverable and the commercial viability of the ongoing EPS.

It depends on their plans and their expectation of the oil price that will underpin it.
joe

Slift, you refer to the 6 August RNS and ask wtf?

Several have commented that the shutdown had occured and that this was formal notification confirming that fact, which it could have been.
However if the shutdown was important to RNS, then it should have come when it happened, and as it was a Saturday, Monday would be the first business day.

The reason for the RNS was therefore the first part, and the clue is the use of the word 'material'.
This was the BoD performing their fiduciary duty to inform investors of new information.
This is the AIM Rules Clause 11:-
General disclosure of price sensitive information
11.An AIM company must issue notification without delay of any new developments which are not public knowledge which, if made public, would be likely to lead to a significant movement in the price of its AIM securities. By way of example, this may include matters concerning a change in:
—its financial condition;
—its sphere of activity;
—the performance of its business; or
—its expectation of its performance.

The 8 June RNS included this:-
" The forward activity programme will be based on a prudent interpretation of field performance to date, including, for conservatism, the possibility of a shallower oil water contact. "
A cautionary note that all may not be as originally conceived and released to investors.

The 6 August takes it to another level, and appends a mollifying FPSO update.
HTH
jimo
joe

AquaeSulis/ADUK,
Just as Moira Slightam as the Subsurface Technical Director is not an Executive Director, so to for Steve Holmes, Production Operations Director.
Following the death of Neil Platt, the empty chair at the BoD table was filled by Steve as Acting COO, in much the same way that Richard Chaffe, Head of Finance, was Acting CFO when AS left.
As an 'Acting' Exec BoD member, they have full BoD roles/duties, so the ExecBoD is now temporarily 4 people, including AM, and the NonExec BoD are one down. Normal ratios return when AM is in the CEO chair and Bev (the Interim CEO, not Acting!) is back in her NonExec chair. (Perhaps you recall the similar circumstances when the Chairman resigned.)

Whether SH becomes COO is still open.
But he does also have his own company in Guilford...
HTH
joe

Slift, you pose an interesting set of questions, but I believe you may not have read the Terms of the Technical Committee which can be found on the page
https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/about-us/governance
expanding the Board Committees and following the red link, also noting Dr.David Jenkins is Chair of the TC.
There is no single owner of the trainset, this move is all about furthering the satisfying of Corporate Governance; a collective responsibility.
There is no declared membership as at 8June.
imo this may be explained by the fact that it was adopted by the BoD on the 5th June, which is when DrT would have quit. I also believe he went, not pushed, although they could have made staying very uncomfortable perhaps in another role, because of the 6 month availability, which they probably would not use but serves to keep him quiet. He had a 12month pay if pushed, 6 if he chose to leave but most elect to leave.

wrt AM, his LinkedIn says Pharos [SOCO]Apr 2004 – Dec 201915 years 9 months.
He may have been available to contribute to the (ongoing) review, before signing up last week as ExecDirector for the transition period.

wrt the rest of portfolio, I believe that it will all be included, not simply because of 'kitchen sinking' but because they said 'that there will also be a material downgrade to estimated contingent resources across the West of Shetland portfolio.' Moreover, they must soon follow up on the Lincoln OGA offer of local structural closure and the LC P&A/new shallower well. Additionally, they have to update on the Warwick/Lincoln licence, which will also be a JV status update.
In June they had a Stewardshiip review with the OGA. There could be action from that.
They need to remove Strathmore and Whirlwind, I expect Halifax will follow the same conservative treatment of structural closure limits.

Have the OGA dropped the commitment wells because of conventional reservoir limits, as per Crystal Amber RNS? What are the 'production enhancement options for the Lancaster field which are currently under evaluation.'

What will they do? How might they fund it?

What does the future look like?

jimo
joe

Yes, daltry.
Comes in off the street, I believe.
Who approached whom?
Did the appropriate committee already have him in their sights for maintaining Board continuity/ succession?
Wonder what his joining terms will be if he was not poached, how many options any freebies?
Soon be 11th!

joe
PS But what about the JV Warwick Licence expiring on the 1st?

ADUK- And also, I distincly don't like the constanty changing use of the terms 'bottomhole pressure' and 'bottomhole flowing pressure'. The two are completely different animals, so have to be referred to as such, very specifically.

I agree and imo they can both be seen in the plots.
The LH graph is taken from the CMD presentation, pg21.
If you look at the previous slide 20, the pressure is shown against time (3monthly).
If you compare the time with the oil/water plot of slide 15 you can see which well is being used and when; note esp Oct-Jan.
The red and blue are clearly higher during their respective shut-in periods, ie BHP.

'Plus I'd really like to know how (and from where, and with what instrumentation) BHFP is being measured. Because I'd expect it to change, with different production rates. Equally, if ideed we have 'perched water' 'static' BHP may be expected to reduce somewhat, as well.'

imo it is the same pressure transducer for BHFP and BHP, it is either F-ing or not F-ing.
Again, if you compare the slow restart of Well 6, you can see the daily red dot dropping to the bottom of the curve and also see the BHP of Well 7z dropping as 6 delivers, including the midmonth shut and restart.

But is the pressure dropping to quickly?
I don't know, but using the pressure to deliver all that water sure ain't gonna help....

jimo
joe

Is it 30 days before H1 Results?

I would agree that seems to be the case, but all Edison have done is copy the RNS, and then make an assessment of the consequences.
The words in the RNS were "..there is a reasonable probability that the oil water contact in the Lancaster field is shallower than the range of oil water contacts envisaged in the 2017 Competent Person's Report by RPS Energy. " and "..material downgrade to estimated reserves.."

Key words:
reasonable probability - more likely than not, less than evens at the bookies.
shallower than the range - all values in the CPR are greater than our new view of the reality.
downgrade - recovery rates are below the stated values with this set up, so shortfall in 'reserve status' volume

Suggest people look back to the 2013 CPR with 1340/1380 contours, and a separate Lancaster East.
(All in-line with the Lincoln info, for OGA field size and depth and new shallower well)
Even review the paper put up by norseman last week https://sp.lyellcollection.org/content/397/1/81
All the words/phrases are in there, conventional closure - fig8, perched, slope, ODT - fig4, for well 4/4z.

There may be oil down to xxxxm, but how to get it out rather than the water?
Time to show the NEW plan!
jimo
joe

littlened
Perhaps he sees it as his act of atonement, having been an uberbull on the prospects for the share, drawing on his personal FB oilfield experience, making it his largest holding and doubtless influencing many other clueless punters to follow suit and promote it chanting the same mantra.

Before selling up in January at a loss.

jimo, natch!

"HUR can now refinance the bonds to a longer maturity, as of 14th August 2020 (today) they have the right to redeem all of the convertible bonds (at par plus accrued interest) and replace the debt with longer dated bonds."

That is simply not the case.
It is conditional on the underlying ordinary SP, (as in your first bullet point in the original post) and currently that is not satisfied.

That was not the case in the halcyon days at the time of the AGM in 2019 when AS spoke of the 'options' open to them.
50p --> 5p explains it all.

joe

Afraid that is not correct no matter how many times it's posted.

Similarly, the significance of today's date and what it permits is also apparently lost on Stu, as there is no date specified for the purchase of Bonds by the issuer to hold in treasury (and therefore be excluded from voting rights, but could be resold into the market) or to cancel.

What is not known is the number of Bonds that are for sale and whether such action is worthwhile when looking at the bigger financial demands that the company may or may not have.

If only there was a plan....

This link is provided on Adfvn.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/bonds/hurricane_energy_plcdl-conv_bonds_201722-bond-2022-xs1641462277
suggesting an eyewatering yield when compared to your bank!
joe

Sailplane, I would not disagree with your view, afterall the CMD had this:
Going Forward.
Field Determination: The GWA JV is seeking a field determination over local structural closure for the purpose of progressing a field development incorporating a single well tieback to the Aoka Mizu of either the Lincoln Cretal well or an alternate shallower producer.

Key words:
local - P1368S licence only
structural closure - not full CPR values
alternate shallower producer - a new well within the structure that produces

imo the WD result threw their existing plan(s) with the OGA into the bin because it went against the theory that oil would flow from below structural closure, and all fields would behave the same, as they were "analagous" in the CPRs.

Therefore the 'fix' recently discussed of dropping the CPR values to those within the structure(s) could lead to dropping the Licence commitment drills as published by Crystal Amber in their RNS.
jimo
joe

SG2, noted your comment " K covered their asses last year and are freeloading now."

I had previously worked out and posted that they were still owed 7.5p per share.
Can you show me where your workings are different to mine? TIA.

Buys
Shares
355,408,990 @15p = £53,311,348.50
_73,122,221 @32p = £23,399,110.72
428,531,211 . . . .£76,710,459.22 Total
Warrant conversions
6,527,501 . @20p = £1,305,500.20
£78,015,959.42 Grand Total
Sales
Shares
110,000,000 @46.5p= £51,150,000
Warrant conversions
3,000,000 @45.92p £1,377,600
3,527,501 @45.00p £1,587,375.45

Remaining exposure £23,900,983.97
Remaining no of shares 318,531,211
Equates to 7.50p

--
imo there is no issue with MC for entry into the Premium Sector of the main market, as it is £700k not £700M, and they have continued diligently to put all the ducks in a row.

--
29 April 2020 RNS listed all NonExecs and many PDMR buying with the exception of Bev.
Is she more perceptive and risk averse than the rest of the BoD and managers and now the Acting CEO?
Hmmm.

And some tools can't see beyond the end of their nose.

CaptainSwag (using your 10:38 post as ideally formatted) slift, Gritstone
personally my guess is that there will be enough reserves for a couple of years - even a 50% decrease would give that. Gives them enough time to sort plans for well 8.

-- I think you are confusing the amount of oil HUR might still get out with the technical status of 'Reserves'. If they cannot get the volume from their wells because the rate is reduced, then they will not get to the current Reserve status. Edison only had 36mmboe in their 16 June update, for 10 years. The EPS is for 6 years. Current exploration licence extension was for 5 years from December.

of course they need water cut to stay stabilised, oil price to stay good - which i think is highly possible - and no more disasters (covid/giant squid etc) - who knows?

--Stabilised is not synonymous with constant wc. The wc is rising. It will need to stabilise on start up from this week's shutdown.

Assuming spirit want to continue - lincoln will probably be the first plan - good oil prices could generate( some) income needed for well 8.

-- Remember the jv only have the licence extension for the eastern end of Lincoln, in P1368.
The large western part and Warwck are on P2194 which expires next month and will be subject to negotiations for any jv extension.

The thing is that it could be a long slow slog....and that is the best scenario i can see. my worry on the SP would be the reaction if spirit decide not to go ahead .

-- Do not overlook the possibility that HUR don't want to go ahead, because of their concentration on the balance sheet.

i think there could easily be a good trade if the plans are good but the reserve downgrade is significant. the market might initially overreact with downgrade but then recover.

-- There's always a trade opportunity! It's the LTH view that's been trashed.

jimo
joe

DC noted your 17:29 with
"It all depends on the water cut, and whether it has stabilised, continues to rise, or starts to decrease."
Also noted PlantedBHA 09:26 on Monday, "Explain the word stabilised ?" I expect that most assumed it was yet another of his rhetorical questions as it did not (ttbomk) receive any reply.

The company have laterly been quite open with the data on the water cut from the wells.
The new BoD have not drawn attention to the water cut by trying to explain it, but have regularly updated with the values for recent flowrates, if not quite to the same level of detail as the daily data values that were supplied in the CMD presentation.

But it matters not, what is absolutely clear is that the water cut continues to rise in both wells.

The reference to "stabilised" is to establish the rate after the well restart where they (DrT) have said that it is 'perched' because the water cut is high immediately on start up due to the water accumulating in the bore, and can be seen in the instability in the daily data. This needs to be cleared before meaningful steadystate data can be established.

Most importantly, it does not say that the rate is constant.

A look at the CMD graphs will show the relationship with oil rates and water cuts and time.

Whilst the water cut is rising it is an existential threat.

If a fall in the water cut is detected, imo they will trumpet that fact, until that time we can see that the evidence shows that the rate will continue to rise.

This will, as you have said, limit the oil production future guidance, just as it will affect their future plans.

jimo
joe
And I didn't mention the bonds!
Oops...

Smasher, you make an interesting observation regarding their logistic preparation in the event of success.
And then moving to 90day testing....

Just imagine FOUR of these:
https://twitter.com/i/status/931457952820711424

August starts tomorrow.
LOL

I ? fantasy.

Sailplane, you've been thinking much deeper than many on here.
It sounds very plausible.
Some might say it would hold water.....

Maybe others noticed that they were not 'pleased' to share the good news that the ESPs were now commissioned, the flow rate was up, the oil was at a new recent high, AM still high level of operational uptime, 14th lift done (to be included in H1 results), 15th scheduled, field determination granted for Lincoln.
Odd that!
jimo
joe