RE: TTT and pro active investors...15 Apr 2020 22:19
aduk: We have no information whatsoever regarding current individual well flowrates and settings.
In the RNS it says:
"In March, the combined production rate was increased to approximately 20,000 bopd comprising 12,000 bopd from the 205/21a-6 well and 8,000 bopd from the 205/21a-7Z well, before downtime. This recent oil production rate has been associated with approximately 6,000 barrels of water per day, predominantly from the 205/21a-7Z well."
I believe that they have disclosed sufficient parameters to enable such a calculation, irrespective of 'settings'.
I note that dspp made such a calculation, but as he did not include any water from #6 he has the worst case for #7z, which if true is a large percentage increase from the November data of c17%. A trend, if you will.
But of note in the RNS was the word 'materially', as in-
“Whilst water production rates have materially increased since start-up of the Lancaster EPS, Hurricane’s interpretation of water behaviour data has continued to support the Company’s perched water model. Although it is not possible to predict future changes in water cut at present, the combination of high productivity wells, potential for currently unused production support from ESPs, and water handling capacity of the Aoka Mizu FPSO give the Company sufficient confidence to maintain its forward guidance at 18,000 bopd, net of 10% assumed downtime.”
So not the CMD 20,000 flatline forecasted, which would have been a useful bonus at this time to reduce the Opex.
DYOC.
jimo
joe