Member Info for JoeSoap

Re: 'good progress with Spirit'
Perhaps the clue is to be found in the Centrica 2000 YE report:
" Similarly, there is significant uncertainty around future investment by the Group in the Greater Warwick Area exploration and evaluation asset. As a result impairment charges have been booked.
&
The charge also includes a £135m write down of the Greater Warwick Area assets, reflecting significant uncertainty over field development."

And as for the use of Paul B. Loyd by April 1st ....
did I read that another ROV boat was booked??

Perhaps 'worth remembering' you mean the 'options'.
These will vest 100% upon ..... and the recent ones will cost 6.1p each if taken up.

Whereas the warrants are available now at par, £0.0001, all 54.5M.
(There are some at >40p: it's debatable whether these will ever be cashed in, imo.)

HTH

Daltry,
6. He lives just around the corner....
HTH

Goldenbadger,
K went on the board when they took just shy of 30% in the placing, well before the Production funding which introduced the Bonds.
ttbomk K never declared taking Bonds although CA did and also said when they sold them.
jimo
joe

Tony, you may well be right re people may have too high an expectation what this [divi] may do for the SP: the SP has seen over 100% since they suggested a 10% rate,iirc.
And have you allowed for i3eNS in your FCF? (JOG have the begging bowl out, again, for their assets.)

BUT just how does the Doc qualify for an interview when we can't get an email reply?
Just asking.

PS omj thinks the management is perfidious....

CONTD
At Lancaster, we are left with the Review data and expectations for sandstone fields. But without any further development drills, it will surely remain as 2C.
Some have suggested that the Reserves will be exhausted, but that is not necessarily the case if a greater recovery factor is employed in the calculation, perhaps not unreasonable for sandstone.
However, we know 7z dipped down and is closer to the aquifer and is the suggested reason for the water cut. Well 6 is around 20m higher yet with an increasing water cut, and if this is also coming from the aquifer , it could water out and become economically unviable. We know no more than the water cut is rising and the downhole pressure is falling. Rates are not given.
It is suggested that the oil is coming from the sandstones and could offer an increase in recoverable oil, but no immediate drilling is planned so any new interpretation has to be based on the existing infrastructure. Looking at the U-shaped profile of #6, I am not convinced oil will flow from the [uphill] toe in preference to the water already in the well, which is increasing as extraction continues.
In summary,
Halifax will not have any Reserves and Resources will be downgraded due to adopting normal closure, awaiting development and reduced field area.
Lincoln will be similarly treated, and Warwick no less severe.
Lancaster, could have an increased 2C and Reserves depend on the interpretation proferred by HUR and that accepted by Equipoise for the CPR. The reserves will need to be commercial and include detail of OPEX and the live Bluewater contract otherwise they will also be just Resources.

jimo
joe

Even during Dr T's tenure, HUR had suggested the possibility of needing a shallower well in Lincoln for future development testing, following the catastrophic results of the GWA 3 well exploration programme funded by Spirit Energy, in exchange for 50% of the field(s).
The gung ho spending on the Lincoln tie-back in advance of OGA approval resulted in an amended Agreement with HUR holding all the invoices, and 50% of the laid-up rig charge, money which may have been very useful now, but the activity was necessry to hold the very ambitious timeline for the next year, whilst engaging with the OGA for permission to extract and gas disposal agreement.

I note that there is still an expectation of a better than expected CPR providing an uplift to the SP. I had earlier asked what this may look like,but was disappointed that no-one was able to quantify the 'better than expected' scenario, especially given the number expecting it.

My view is that a better one is unlikely, but wanted to know what I'd overlooked.

HUR website says Halifax - To be updated following completion of ongoing Technical Review and/or updated Competent Person’s Report. We await. Few patiently!

HUR website says 'Warwick/Lincoln - The joint venture undertook a three well drilling program on the GWA during 2019 and is currently evaluating the results.' and 'To be updated following completion of ongoing Technical Review and/or updated Competent Person’s Report.'
Meanwhile Centrica have just said 'The charge also includes a £135m write down of the Greater Warwick Area assets, reflecting significant uncertainty over field development.'
Spirit Energy Resources Limited acquired Spirit Energy WOS Limited for £119,742,000 in 2019, and also disclosed the company had recognised an [unspecified] impairment charge during the year.
Even after adding on-going spend, the current book value must be de minimus, and still a P&A to do.
Will HUR treat their 50% of the asset the same, pending a new appraisal well?

TBC...

RNSTranslator - Your recent posts here are to be applauded and convey the reality faced by the BOD amidst a sea of posts from those whose comprehension is sadly lacking.
wrt the RNS, might I suggest that this is the response, having been told by CA that they will be making comments in their imminent Report?
It may not have helped change CA's view, but they did tell us how much they invested, and previously they have told us that they have 'realised profits of £43M', and therefore it was not a disaster for them, even if they have to write off the December c5% of the fund [6.6/129] valuation; just a lesson that they were sucked in, like the PI and K.
The use of Ad-hoc suggests that they had not used the Trustee to convene any Bond Holder meeting. And the stakeholders would likely include Bluewater and OGA, ie plural.

Imagine the outcry on here if CA had been given exclusive price sensitive information in advance of the humble PI!

The CPR could well turn up with the Full Year results, in the same way that the TR came with the H1, and the viabilty of the company will then be laid bare.
jimo
joe

After the RNS, just wondering what peoples views are on what "a better than expected CPR " might look like?
Or even what an 'expected' one would say?

TIA

It maybe that you are overlooking the requirements of the OGA wrt the Lancaster licence and the required drill.

They avoided that by taking a much reduced licence area defined by the conventional closure.

It is no longer contiguous with Halifax.

As it is no longer such a large area field nor as deep, it no longer holds the same oil volume.

HTH

Captain, you need to go back to check the initial placing that K and CA took part in.
From memory, @15p with a much lower SP
Might be an idea to think how much HUR need and what sort of volume that would require to see the range of dilution.
HTH
But a different story with the mega raise...

fandg2 re 12:31
The water cut is continuing to rise in Well#6.
They may have presented the data such that you immediately think that it is 'no worse' and even 'less than Q3' but unfortunately that is not the reality.
From the OGA Data, the October watercut was 22.31%,
for November it was 29.16% when Well #7z was in use for a short period
leaving c 23.8% for December (to average 25% for Q4 as per RNS).
They also state 25% currently, so it is rising, perhaps even at an increasing rate.
The unknown is the well pressure decline.

Goldenbadger1 re your 12:19, good to see some effort put into potential next steps.
However, re (5) I noticed your earlier post and thought you had mis-typed 2021, but now I see it was intended.
Unfortunately for HUR to call in the Bond early, it has to be in profit,
"at any time on or after 14 August 2020 at par plus accrued interest if the value (calculated over a specified period) of the Ordinary Shares underlying each Convertible Bond of denomination US$200,000 shall have been at least US$300,000";
and currently it is a long way from that.
4, could be problematic with OGA/Spirit/lawyers involved
3 would Spirit buy all GWA and the kit stored in HUR's shed? Or ANO buy the inconclusive Halifax?
Think you are looking at 1&2 imo.

But crepe day today...

Is it not the case that at the moment I3E NS, whatever value you care to assign to it in the future, is a negative on the I3E Canada income for I3E PLC fcf?
The 'with legal team' status will be eating cash.

Is it not the case that at the moment I3E NS, whatever value you care to assign to it in the future, is a negative on the I3E Canada income for I3E PLC fcf?
The 'with legal team' status will be eating cash.

Interesting spread on those Bonds, 47%!

And even then more BB posts than share trade deals, and they were not all buys....

Tony, if the going price for any further acquisition for I3E has now risen to say 10000 then the price of the I3E buys has also risen to ANObuyer...
imo, just saying....
PS Don't forget their warrants and managements options -- would set me up well at any price!

All 'investors' should be wary, imo, unless they rely on Reddit...

But do you also think that a hedgefund holding 1/3 of the stock, and umpteen million near free warrants might be a detraction and increase the wary-factor coupled to the past performances?