Member Info for Joek1

No worries. However, if you download the sheet on successive days you sometimes find that the new sheet does not replace the old one. Something to do with the search engine retaining a memory of the older sheet.

Hi Bailiff, Crystal Ball, Mystic Meg or . . . FCA website! Looks like he's feeling the pressure building.

Mr Odey was busy yesterday. He bought 0.25% of the Company! Now down to 1.85%. Probably buying today too!

@Roxbury, thanks for the explanation. I find it strange that the 2025s would agree to the 2026s getting ahead of them in the queue without receiving something in exchange. Would they not have had the power to block the deal unless they were provided with a sweetener?

Does anyone have an explanation as to why the yield on the new 2026 bonds is c9.5% while the yield on the remaining 2025 bonds is c12.5%? Do the new bonds rank above the old ones in terms of preference on a winding up of the company or is there some other reason?

Persiantrader, as you say, the sp is directionless. Volumes traded are low. We know that the shorters are still buying so it is strange that there are sellers at these falling prices. Probably just profit-takers (some of whom may have bought as low as 8p). The funny thing is that a company with 1.4 bn shares at 55p each is capitalised at £770m. Someone sells 20,000 shares at 54p, for just under £11k and the capitalisation goes to £756m, a fall of £14m. And that's all on the back of an £11k trade!
You just need to be patient. The AGM will be announced shortly and we will then get a trading update that should show a significantly improved Q1 (over Q1 2020). Results get headlines. Interest will increase. Be patient.

Thanks Seekingalpha, I had been unsuccessfully looking for details of the issue. The presentation shows 24 months from closing (i.e. mid May) at 75% and the subsequent 12 months at 50%. The big questions will be: what collars are put in place (limiting upside) and what production volume upside may exist (that will not need to be hedged). Brent futures at May '22 are currently at c$65 per barrel, with May '23 at c$62 per barrel. Nov. '23 is at c$61. The intangibles in the presentation are both Kenya and the South American exploration upside.

Is that certain re the hedging. I saw that the Moodys review said "The review will focus on (i) the successful completion of the envisaged refinancing of Tullow Oil and (ii) the completion of hedges of 75% of the production for the next two years and 50% for the third year, at a floor price which Moody's considers to be sufficient to protect Tullow's balance sheet in a low oil price scenario, identified at approximately $55/bbl." but was that something that was set in the final bond terms?

GS continue to be a big player in the Tullow market. On 6 May they had 53.2m shares of which 51.2m were loaned out. On 7 May that changed to 36.2m held, with 21m loaded out. So, shorters returned 30m, and GS in turn sold 17m. However, that still leaves them with 36.2m. 15.2m are held on their on account. They probably have more to sell, which will keep prices down, if they look to sell. However, the good news seems to be that they appear to be reducing their holding.

It would be so interesting to see who GS had loaned their shares to. Varde may have borrowed from GS. The GS short reduced by over 7m shares on 5 May. As of that date, GS had 53.6m shares in total, with only 36m loaned out. As of 22 Feb they had 51m shares loaned out.

Adieuk32, not sure if the bonds were oversubscribed by $2.3bn. The wording on Reuters, quoting Dhir, said "the bond received interest totalling $4.2 billion". While that was very positive, it is not the same as oversubscription. The excess interest would have been one of the factors that resulted in the final price i.e. the coupon could have been higher if there was less interest.

Anyway, it was great news. On the Ghana production numbers, they are produced monthly on the following site, if anyone wants to follow them. Tullow has 35.48% of Jubilee and 47.18% of TEN, for reference: https://www.petrocom.gov.gh/production-figures/

With Tullow having now adjusted the timing of debt repayments through the new bond issue, along with the initiation of a more comprehensive and lengthy hedging strategy, the short/mid-term risks appear to have dissipated. Issues such as the past turret problems can be insured against. So, this investment appears to have been derisked somewhat. Will that result in the remaining shorters exiting the scene (as the volatility should reduce) and GS selling their stake, as they will no longer have clients looking to borrow their shares? If so, this investment could become more stable, irrespective of any oil price volatility in the short term. The interesting issues will be what Tullow does about Guyana exploration opportunities and about the Kenya development commitments being sought by the Kenyan Government by year end.

Volumes at Ten and Jubilee fell from Q4 '20 to Q1 '21 by 12% and 9% respectively, based on numbers taken from petrocom.gov.gh/archive under Resource/Download. Useful source of production data, published monthly. Hopefully we'll see improvements later in the year as the current drilling campaign begins to bear fruit.

I have not seen any coupon rates suggested yet. I think the rates you quote related to the bond funding exercise in 2016

That may explain why the 2025 bid:offer spread has hardly moved and is still around yesterday's level, whereas the 2022 bid:offer has moved up materially.

The 2022 bond holders will also be happy. The bid/offer has just gone up in the European market where they are traded: last traded 91.94. Bid offer now 95.75:97.75.

I would be surprised if we hear anything this week relating to the liquidity test. I received the following from IR last Friday, in response to a query: "Directors concluded that the information submitted to the lenders under the RBL facility fulfilled the requirements of the liquidity forecast test, and that view has not changed. Approval by the lenders of the submitted information is not required, and in the context of ongoing constructive discussions we have no reason to believe that there would be a default by the end of April.". So, it sounds like the negotiations with lenders will continue until a conclusion is reached, possibly in May.

Bailiff/JMAX, You're both welcome! What I find most frustrating at the moment is trying to figure out what's happening vis-a-vis the corporate bonds. On the 2022 bonds, they traded today at a yield of 17.42% ($90.75 for $100 nominal). This is for a minimum investment of $200k nominal. That's an attractive yield for something that matures in a year. The yield for the 2025 bonds is 13.57% ($82.38 for $100 nominal). Again, the same minimum investment required.
For someone like SB, with a significant investment in the equity, I'd have thought he'd also have been interested in the bonds, if only to find out how the renegotiations are going. Wouldn't it be great if someone on this BB could share the information?

The details on that tracker are for holdings of 0.5% or more. That's upwards of c7m shares. If GS loaned the shares to a few clients, the individual loans might not register on the list of short sellers (the individual amounts being less than 0.5%). The announcement today was for a reduction of 12.7m in the shares that GS loaned to shorters. If that was three clients, they might not individually register on the tracker at all. The bottom line is that 12.7m of the GS-held shares that were loaned to shorters are no longer loaned to shorters and they now have only 32m shares loaned to shorters.

The message says that on 13 April they completed their reduction in shares held, from 51.53m to 41.07m. Of those, they has originally lent 44.7m (to Short sellers) and, by 13 April, the shares loaned to short sellers had reduced to 32.01m. i.e. a reduction of 12.7m shares. That means that GS now have 9.1m shares on their own account and 32.01m shares loaned to other parties.