Member Info for JODO

Seven of the most recent posts in my inbox are green!
Something up?

It's happened before a few times!

But isn't it fun?

OJ
Why "no opinion" if as positive as the very positive Oz?

Tanz
There's no trading in these shares for weeks; yesterday the only buy was mine, and usually the spread is so wide that day trading is impossible (that said, the real spread these days is 60/61.5)!

Just bought a few at 0.615!

IBL
No, that doesn't explain it.
You said that "if true", he "may be".
Anyway, I don't have a particular argument with you; I just wish that the anti-SC brigade would either put the counter case factually and rebut specifics or shut up.
I have written off my small gamble in what ended up as CEG, so it's not that I think all (or indeed much) is rosy in the garden!

IBL
Why use this weasel-word phrase "may be"?
You think he is in breach or you don't!
If you can't say that you think it (regardless of your competence in the matter), you shouldn't write it!

Fatal
I can't say that I can muster quite the same enthusiasm for SC as you do given the way the share price has tanked but I have no reason to doubt his integrity and I will still read him with interest.
Not something I would say about the toerags who have cluttered op this board before and since SC's latest post.

Buddy,
If their major businesses are poorly managed, it becomes a real mystery how China's income, wealth and global power has increased in 40 years!

ForrestG
1) No, none of what you call massive welfare schemes are in the infrastructure bill.
Reinstating decaying physical infrastructure as the US's is normally considered a good investment which will show a profit.
2) Your still to come "massive welfare programme" package is reckoned to be fully funded and budgetarily neutral by the independent budgetary authority. So while the hyper wealthy may have a few dollars less, the US as a whole will be as rich/poor as before.
3) I'm rather ashamed of the blindly/selfish company that my gambling requires me to keep!
Virtue signalling, I know; but I haven't cancelled any delicate flowers yet!

Even if they were included, how do spending on items such as childcare, preschool and home care (which many not-poor EU countries do!) make America poorer?

Forrest
I hope your other research on this share'd prospects is more reliable,
None of these items are in the $1.2tn infrastructure bill, I think.

PINCH OF SALT
With the UK also a net importer of oil and gas, talk of a gas interconnector needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. It is hard to imagine that Boris Johnson would be prepared to leave his country even shorter by shipping out gas to Ireland. Reliance on Russian gas also looks increasingly risky, with Vladimir Putin restricting gas to Europe through the Ukraine pipeline and now threatening to slow down gas through the Nordstream pipeline built beneath the Baltic Sea and which connects to Germany. Although the climate change warning bells are ringing loud, it is hard to imagine that Barryroe will fall off the grid.

Given the recent history of failure at Providence, it is not surprising that the market has gone cold on the shares, which are now floundering at 4c. The company did raise €4.8m by way of a placing and warrant take-ups last year and a further €2.9m by warrant take-ups this year, such that as of June 2021 the company still had €3.6m cash in hand.
This will keep Providence going for another couple of months but shareholders will be keeping their fingers crossed that Menton (backed by Nick Furlong), will find a suitable candidate who can realise the huge potential in Barryroe. A farm-in partner will have to be found, even if Providence has to give away half of the $20bn potential oil profit.
In the meantime, at 4c the company is capitalised at just €40m, which, despite the history of disappointment associated with the exploration company, looks excessively conservative. Furlong has put a few million in here and certainly won’t be walking away without having put the wheels in motion one more time.

INCONCLUSIVE
Besides its main Barryroe prospect, Providence had been involved in some really interesting prospects off the west coast of Ireland in the so-called Atlantic Margin. This featured an interesting prospect in the northern Porcupine zone called Spanish Point, which had been drilled 15 years ago. Six years ago Exxon was bought on board to take on the 5,000 metre deep water drill in the southern Porcupine called Dunquin. Despite spending €200m, this proved inconclusive and Exxon withdrew and handed the licence back to Providence.
The Irish company has a further licence in the southern Porcupine, which Providence drilled itself (the Drumbeg prospect) but out which flowed water. The €100m was mostly picked up by the hapless farm-in partners.
Instead of finding a way to monetise these Atlantic Margin projects, where the drilling undertaken had given a much fuller understanding of the geology of the area, Lynn decided to simply abandon all the prospects. The Diablo ridge licence in the south porcupine was handed back on December 31, 2019, shortly after the Newgrange licence on the Goban Spur, while the company pulled out of the Avalon licence in the south Porcupine in June 2020 and the Dunquin South licence in July last year.
TERMINATED
Matters were not helped by Leo Varadkar announcing at the UN two years ago that Ireland was going to suspend all oil and gas development work. Although he subsequently clarified that all existing licences and extensions thereof would be fully honoured, the majors got spooked and lost interest.
With all the old management gone and the Barryroe deal with Spot-On terminated in April and, much more importantly, with the oil price back at more than $80 a barrel, Barryroe once again looks an exciting project.

With an estimated 350 million barrels of oil recoverable and 500 billion cubic feet of gas, Barryroe is worth seriously big bucks at the current oil price. While it would cost circa €300m to get Barryroe into production, the field is only 50km offshore and in only 100m of water, so the operating cost here would be no more than $25 a barrel.
At $80 a barrel, this would leave the group with a potential operating surplus of $55 a barrel. This would mean the field offers a potential profit of just on $20bn and this does not include the half a trillion cubic feet of gas estimated in Barryroe. Given that this country’s dependence on imported oil and gas and in light of the warnings from the ESB of brown-outs and possible black-outs over the next few years when the wind isn’t blowing, it is inevitable that the focus will turn to developing Barryroe.

Providence needs to find the right man
AFTER ALL the hot air spouted by Providence and its recently departed CEO Alan Lynn about the bizarre Barryroe farm-out deal to a £2 company, Spot-On Energy, the latter’s failure to deliver is hardly a surprise. A changing of the guard and the exploitation of Providence’s giant Barryroe field will be up to the new CEO sourced by recently appointed chairman Jimmy Menton, backed by major shareholder Nick Furlong. There could be billions at stake.
Pat Plunkett stepped down as chairman and quit the board in July, and Lynn followed him last month “with immediate effect”. Plunkett was involved in the original Chinese Apec farm-out deal, although Tony O’Reilly Jr and Sean O’Sullivan were the main drivers, and Providence shareholders – led by Nick Furlong (who controls 13.6%) – clearly ran out of patience. The experienced new chairman, Jimmy Menton, is at least a fresh face with no connection to the previous management and will need to put in place an external heavyweight in the oil and gas industry as CEO. Such a player should be knowledgeable about the Irish offshore oil and gas sector.

An obvious local candidate is geophysicist Steve Boldy, CEO of Lansdowne Oil & Gas, Providence’s partner company with a 20% stake in Barryroe. In 2013, Boldy joined Steve Remp in Ramco, which developed the Seven Heads Gas Field, the one that sits directly above Barryroe, before moving on to Lansdowne in 2006. For the past 16 years he has been studying the Barryroe field, where he is currently on a salary as CEO of €70,000 pa, a fraction of the €285,000 Lynn was paid last year and even less of the €100,000 Plunkett took as non-executive chairman.
There was always a question mark over Lynn, who drew a full salary as CEO but instead of doing that job farmed the whole process out to Spot-On Energy. He didn’t have the relevant experience, being a chemical engineer rather than a petroleum engineer, geologist or geophysicist and the fact that he had worked variously for Exxon, Laslo and Cairn was never really relevant. At Roc Oil where Lynn was based from 2008 to 2014, the company lost €31m and was suspended from the Australian stock exchange. Next up was Afren Oil, which went into administration in July 2015. Then there was Lynn’s move to Third Energy as COO, where a decision was taken to “divest the offshore business and focus on the onshore” that prompted him to jump ship in July 2019. Hardly the most reassuring of records.

Tony and GGG
I'm reluctant to take sides in this argument, and I value your contributions Tony, but it's difficult to argue with the unfolding pattern as predicted by GGG (too frequently??).
It would need to be very convincingly demonstrated that debt was either totally unavailable or only on punitive terms, to justify the decision in hindsight. Even then, anybody like me who has gambled on HUR in recent years would still have some scepticism prompted by incentives the bod have built in for themselves!

Genghis
"So its a casino cxhare, gents ; place your bets."

This is true of very many shares on AIM, particularly for outsiders, and indisputable for this share.

However, for you and a handful of other sceptics over the past year or two, this has been a one-way bet to zero; and that we should sell immediately to recover the few bob we had left.
In my case, and I'm not a big investor/gambler here, that would represent a loss of just over £4.5K.
So, even when you make sense as today, I'm entitled to be sceptical of what you're really at!

NGR
I haven't counted the words but this is by far the longest posts on this page today!
From somebody who posted dozens/hundreds(?) of times that this was doomed, and as recently as Bloomsday when the price was 0.7p declared that the game was up, there can be no good reason why you are still here.
Since then, this share is up 600% and even on a very shrunken investment that is quite significant, so please go away with your advice!

Farage is an ignorant mouth; I don't know if you're quoting him approvingly?
This is a pyss-poor deal for anybody who thinks corporations should pay a fair share of total tax, and in the correct jurisdiction!
There's a lot of wind and bluster by all involved, including from the Irish govt who have dragged it out in a pretence that they have fought the good fight.
As to loss of competitive advantage on tax alone: that's a nonsense. The increase from 12.5 to 15 is of minor significance and in fact it will prevent Ireland from being undercut by the Baltic states for example who had even lower rates.