The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
THG will not be sold on the cheap.
The share price has been manipulated down (together with every other company in the sector). FCA does nothing about the manipulation (because they have no teeth), any potential buyer would not stump up the real value of THG when the share price is so low, and the board will not sell for a price that doesnt reflect the true value.
There is only one conclusion here. THG will go private because the share price will not recover to reflect true value.
I don't know what happens in this situation and perhaps someone more savvy can enlighten us.
I would assume THG would offer us a premium to the current share price for our shares, or we would be able to keep our shares in a private company for the next chapter.
The next chapter is entitled 'Nasdaq' by the way.
But how long will this be is another matter, my best guess is until things recover ie 3-5 years . That's a long time to tie up your money, but imagine the rewards if you last the distance.
I know what I will be doing.
London as a financial hub is finished due to the hedge fund mafia.
One quarter of my sipp is amgo.
I have built up a decent sipp over the last 5 years Investing surplus business cash after working 60hr weeks for the last 15 years and building my business where I work on the tools. 8hrs on site with 2hrs in the office.
My point is, I have worked hard all my life from the age of 16,. Never taken a loan all my life. Except for my house.
The surplus cash from my business has been invested for my retirement in the hope that I don't have to continue killing myself through sheer hard work for much longer.
Last Wednesday the FCA took that dream away and Friday the board saw fit to come out of suspension and a quarter if my portfolio was wiped for 35%.
It hurts and its not fair.
It was bad enough that the fca moved the goal posts at the 11th hour, but then to manipulate the facts in court is unforgivable.
The fca need to be investigated . They have failed at every step, from the consumers they are supposed to protect to the small pi's that they think should be wiped out! Its unbelievable!
The Fca are unfit for purpose. To whom do we complain about this 'regulator'.
Can anyone help? Is it the financial ombudsman ?
...is all that is required. Surely its not that difficult to find a way of improving the SOA without it ruining the company and without tapping their creditors or us long suffering pi's in the short term.
Allow the scheme to go forward with 'future' improved terms say 20% for 5 years, or something similar, then everyone comes out of this ok.
Insolvency, and everyone looses. I really cannot see how the judge will allow this to happen. It would be a disgrace. and its not necessary. The FCA moving the goalposts, saying they want a different scheme, but not letting us know what they would be happy with is not helpful.
Amigo were poor yesterday. They didnt prove there were other options. I think there argument was transparent and the judge saw through it. They are a business, and want to preserve their position, and I therefore think there is some wriggle room.
I anticipate the verdict to be 'maybe' not a 'yes' or a flat 'no'. Get around the table, improve the SOA that limits future profit, without killing the business and without asking creditors or pi's to pay for it now.
Win Win.
Come on Judge, there is a way out of this that is fair for EVERYONE.
Just read 18 pages and this post stood out. Worth posting again. Hope senator doesn't mind. Senator1 13:28
It is not the Courts role to decide whether current is SOA is optimal. That has been guided in previous judgments as a matter of law. They need only decide that it is FAIR and that all parties had all the information they needed to assess that. The argument will center on whether the Board in presenting two alternatives skewed the decision. Is liquidation the only real alternative? I think the fact that the secured debt has a temporary waiver is the killer objective evidence that this is very probable. If the secured creditors call an event of default, this will trigger cross default and de-facto it is in Administration on the secured pool and more generally. Why this point has not been made is very strange. That will kill the argument that liquidation is not the only alternative once and for all. The secured lenders wont wait forever as they know that further delays will weaken their position.
If only this was not pressed more by our team and expect this will feature in further discussions.
Only one option in reality. It has to be 'yes' or a 'no' will result in admin (just as GJ promised). IMHO
https://www.thetakeoverpanel.org.uk/the-code/download-code
The institutions are getting close to 30%, and will then have to disclose who they are buying for. Do we think JB is going to get his baby back ? I suppose if you've bought 30% at a low average, paying a premium to gain control would mean that he still gets it on the cheap . Opening offer 50p anyone? Would feel cheated as this was supposed to be a 3-5 year hold for £2.50 so anything less than £1 would not be worth all the risks we have taken along the road. Aimho.
Well done Vinison . Will 15.75m shares that's £157k per penny. Wow
I have been glued to the buys and sells all day, looking out for clues of big players, with more insider knowledge selling.... but there was no evidence of this, and to the contrary, it seems that thicw have many shares have been bought than sold.
This, together with increased holding rns' have reassured me that all is positive here.
Im convinced the vote is 'yes'
I imagine that the creditors meeting is a formality. Why would they vote against starting the engine? Surely it is their best way of getting their investment back?
The Court will surely be seeking to rubberstamp the 'will' of the people most affected, who have surely voted 'yes' to see some redress.
Actually, my focus now is what will happen after 12th. I think GJ has been keeping himself busy doing what he does best.
I expect a cascade of news to drop in tge next few weeks on the new products, new appointment, lending starting again etc etc.
Bright days ahead. Holding strong and allowing this to play out. Hoping for £1 this year, but will assess myself target once we have news of lending and products.
I've not got the deep pockets of the holders on Vinisons list, but I've invested my hard earned blood and sweat into this and have 250k share investment that I cannot afford to loose. Fingers crossed for Wednesday.
Wishing all the best for the balls of Steel gang and our balls of wood gang.
See you LTH's on the other side.
As a small business, each time a company that owes me money goes into administration we receive nothing .
Debt camel suggests that people would receive money back whether the scheme goes ahead or amgo fail . See below from their website.
"For most people, the number one priority is getting their guarantor released and their balanced reduced or cleared The chance of a small cash refund is pretty unimportant compared with that.
You will get this if your claim is upheld in the Scheme or if it is upheld by the administrators if Amigo goes under. You won’t get any more from the Scheme than you would from administration (except if you also get a small cash refund).
So what matters is whether your claim is MORE LIKELY to be upheld by Amigo or by administrators."
I'm not sure if this is correct and would be grateful if anyone here could shed more light on the likely outcome for debtors/guarantors if amgo is forced into administration.
I suspect they wouldn't receive anything, and as such the debtcamel advice may be misleading.