Member Info for Jiving

My understanding is that Blackwell was the driving force behind both Dave & Dan getting pushed out, neither left voluntarily. Which might have been OK had he actually wanted to be CEO & take the company forward, but it turns out he didnt.

It appears Dan was pushing an early deal with Kissei in the hope that they could piggyback their existing approved usage of tranilast in Japan. If that could have been used to fast-track approvals for the 002 co-crystal we 'might' have been able to get 002 to market relatively quickly in Japan. But the Kissei connection was lost when Dan was elbowed out.

Both Blackwell & Keegan got warrant packages when they joined the Board as NEDs, & before they accepted any executive responsibilities.

One of the main problems we have had, is that when I first invested we were an early stage venture capital company, with the 3 main founders owning just under 30% of the equity (assuming full exercise of their their option/warrant packages). They clearly had a huge financial incentive to maximise shareholder value, since their removal we have been in the hands of corporate bureaucrats with negligible shareholdings/options - its not been a great swap imo.

Useful list Soup. I am hoping we not only know originator drug is for NXP004 but also why they the BOD seems increasingly excited by it.

We have seem to have given up with the full time CEO role, with no lab, realistically there is little for a CEO to do. The business development role is the key one for us looking ahead. Even here is there enough to do to make it a full time role? Whoever undertakes that role needs to be awarded buckets of options, we need someone financially incentivised. It always worried me that neither Blackwell or Anne got an options package on becoming CEO - if you join intending to see the company's assets through to a profitable conclusion surely thats what you line up. Of course if you are only intending to be around a few months its not an issue.

My hope was Soup that they were so confident of 002 & 004 news that they signed up for this deal with its high benchmark price of 2p (versus our current price of 1.10p) in the expectation that the positive news would break us out of our downward price cycle & push us towards our re-listing price of 4p. A level at which the deal becomes a 'good' deal from a shareholders perspective. I hope it wasn't just wishful thinking but I did detect a more assertive, positive mention of 002 & 004 in the last RNS.

Sadly some managements can become overly optimistic about their share price & accept deals based around an aggressive share price, that they then fail to meet ,with negative financing implications. Back in the 1980s a number of UK entrepreneurs signed up for low coupon/high premium convertibles expecting a high share price to prompt conversion. Unfortunately for a number of them that didn't happen & the premium put structure they had signed up for meant they had to repay the bonds at say 130% versus the 100% par, not good when they were in financial trouble.

Its not positive that CPI has sold again at a relatively low price, but they have sold tranches before & they are not necessarily committed to selling more immediately. IF we get genuinely positive 002/004 news maybe they will stick around?

The implications of our current share price are what primarily concerns me at present. We need the share price consistently above the 'Benchmark Price' of 2p. Surely 'our' management/BOD must have understood that essential implication before signing the deal? Surely.....

That was a great post from CawCaw, and the scenario he lays out for realising value seems a realistic one. After a bad day yesterday, it was good to focus on the huge positives of our giant field. This is bigger & better than OPL226 and crucially not in Nigeria. We still may pull something off in Nigeria but now its not central to our prospects, Thank God.

Soup. Regarding Panda & the like posting for the first time then disappearing. I have seen the same situation in another share which created a similar facility to Lanstead's. It is almost as if they intend to knock the share price down with negativity...and then clear off.

I see this a facility as being a necessary condition prior to hiring a new CEO and/or business development director. I just hope our BOD hand out some decent chunks of options to the appointee (s), it would be good for them to be financially incentivised directly to the share price.

ATG thanks for that link. I see this as potentially being the break from Glencore we need before we can progress. Just hope we are on that list. Heading into my third year as a ZIOC holder & hoping for real progress in 2022. Iron ore seems to have stabilised after the autumn plunge.

HFB. As MK pointed out the Trafigura deal in July 2018 was an Arthur deal when Shorecan had an 80% share of OPL226 & was acting as 'operator/fixer'. But Essar suspected this deal (& potentially other connected financings) would dilute their remaining 20% so they launched a blocking 'disagreement'. This essentially made the Trafigura financing moot & the issue dragged on for another 2 years. Until the 2020 resolution deal, whereby Essar again emerged as the main shareholder.

But the issue still remains whether they have the surplus capital to kickstart the OPL226 development? No doubt we shall see what emerges but I wouldn't be surprised to see changes in %'s again, and this time not to COPLs detriment. I note CNOOC is a 15% shareholder in WI. In the recent past they were rumoured to be sniffing around OPL226 & other fields, when they made a peace visit with NNPC a couple of years ago, stating they had $3b to invest in Nigerian oil.

HFB. Believe me nobody would be happier (OK maybe Bob, Bolton, Sub and and..) if we got news in the next 8 days on Nigeria. The Nigerians are clearly pushing for license holders to 'put up' and the oil price is of course making all development plans look rosy.

But the key issue since 2016 has been nobody has actually had the resources to prove to the Nigerians that they can go ahead with the crucial first drill. In 2016 Essar was fighting a losing battle to keep its two prime Indian assets & had no surplus to put into OPL226, so they sold 80% to Shorecan. Who with the failure of the Exxon drill in Liberia also never had the financial resources to go ahead. So in 2020 the % change again, as it looked then that Essar had the funds to go ahead. Now at the end of 2021 it again looks questionable whether they can cough up, given the severe financial problems they are having with Essar's UK subsidiary.

So my conclusion is: something is clearly going on with the OPL226 license but who is going to be the finance provider & what the eventual %'s could be, is up in the air. It would not surprise me if a third party emerged who took all or most of Essar's stake in return for financing the first stage of the development. But I am optimistic we will see something emerging in the next couple of months & COPL will have a % at least as high as our present share.

"Nigeria news this week please"
A request we have been making for over 4 years now, one day....

Thanks for the responses Soup & Older. Thats what I thought, but good to hear it from you as well, I do see the rationale for their sensitivity. So we are just awaiting NXP002 in January, and then we will have 2 exciting prospects in play.

I just checked the monthly US cost of Lynparza & they reckon its around $13,000 per month per patient!

Interview seemed positive in tone & content to me. Glad they told us in advance of slight delay to NXP002 results. One thing I wasn't sure of - is that it for reports on testing of NXP004 & they were good & moving to discussions. Does that mean we likely now wont get any formal RNS on actual NXP004 'results'?

MK thats my thinking. I 'hope' Arthur has the Cuda purchase covered by the existing loan agreement, but if an OPL226 purchase came 'out of the blue' I dont see he has any option but a placing.

No HFB they have lost their main Asian businesses some time ago. Their two crown jewels were their vast Indian oil refining/distribution arm which went to Rosneft/Trafigrua some 5 years ago & their steel business which went to Arcelor Mittal 2 years ago. They fled to Dubai with the remnants, the only meaningful large asset left is the Stanlow refinery - which if you google has inland revenue, accounting, financing & even union problems - all due to a critical cash shortage. They have no large assets left but lots of debt - not a pretty brew.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/26/uk-essar-energy-second-biggest-oil-refinery-on-brink-of-collapse-reports

HFB - exactly the Nigerian stance is forcing Essar to cough up or walk, they have no dosh, indeed desperately need dosh to keep their UK refinery. They are forced sellers, with realistically only 1 possible buyer.

zooropa. I agree - sadly been here many times before - if it looks like pre-placing selling by traders guaranteed a placing allotment - it almost certainly is.

I am putting 2+2 together as above and hoping for 4++ Pure 100% speculation to be clear.

What if its all about OPL226 incoming?

I am surprised about the CPI news, seems odd timing with big news signalled on both our major plays in 4Q.

I dont see the YouTube video as anything other than an oddity. The Kissei deal leak to the Sunday Times was on a galactically different scale.

Well I certainly hope the data is with company Soup, and if Anne was fulfilling that role we will have got a return for our money. I can see she has specific experience in the inhaled sector, Jo presumably in her 'consultancy role could also provide input. I am frankly hoping that given we have been awaiting positive results, for what some 2 years, that they have a plan to carry it forward that just needs to be tweaked. Whatever, when Anne does formally leave we have a clear succession plan in place, even if temporary till a new CEO is located.

BTW your NXP004 research suggesting it could be based on Astra's Lynparza, was very useful & it seems a very likely candidate. I see your rough value calculations have also been picked up on Twitter!

A concern I have had for some time was the danger of Anne leaving, the key data being delayed & the search for a suitable CEO rolled back - potentially leaving us with a leadership gap. Riddell stepping into this role gives us clear continuity regardless of whether the data emerges beginning December or end December (or indeed later).