Member Info for Jiving

For a break from the depressing downward movement in the share price, I am wondering if anybody has any examples of pharma patents that have been sold at a very early stage, ie around where NXP004 is now or likely will be by year end. I am also interested in whether those early stage sales involve a simple outright cash purchase for 100% or whether there is some kind of licensing deal whereby the patent holders get 'their share' of future royalties.

Trying to quantify the value, the following factors occur to me - ease & speed of regulatory approval for the co-crystal patent; useful life of new patent; size of the market (& growth); geographic extent of current underlying drug sales; competitive situation in that market sub sector.

Its almost like ''''our management'''' think they are already running a private company & not a public company with a share price & shareholders. It is simply hopeless to tell us effectively CEO pending & then nothing. IR if you are watching, time to wake them up??

Mars, if if we have an improved version of Lynparza I hope they dont do an underpriced sweetheart deal with AZ, but see what Merck & others might want to bid. Given the NXP001 licensing disaster, I am a little worried about our negotiating skillset.

"...I get the feeling an end game is in play."' Soup I agree, as someone famous once said: "It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

Well first off to be clear I am not saying the rumour is true because the price went up 50% in the week of 6 February. But that rumour began the price movement & I am personally aware of two people topping up for 8m & 4m in that period. Incidentally their view was true or not it made sense to top up at these levels.

I am now in my 5th year as an investor and a participant on this board, in that time this is the first rumour I have actually passed on, normally I am very sceptical about rumours. The question of timing is something I have reflected on, if the patent filing was in November surely actually the test results would have been earlier, likely in the summer (perhaps there is a reference) which then resulted in fine tuning the patent for Nov filing? So in fact the delay from summer 2021 to February 2022 is more like 6-8 months. My hunch (not being actually in touch with the source) is the source was not aware of the results then, but became aware of them in February. Its all a bit Smiley's People but I think I can see the provenance of who, why & when - for what that's worth. I have always made clear its 'just a rumour' that I am passing on rather than being a party to myself.

Thanks Older that explains & confirms some of the excitement about NXP004. It was the test results leading up to the second patent filing that caused the excitement I referred to, & the notion that NXP004 could be 'fast tracked' ahead of the normal pharma/patent/testing process.

Agreed the management shenanigans was a disaster for the company & the share price. Although IMO most founder issues should have been dealt with by other means than dismissal. But theoretically we are now behind those upheavals & as you point out are further along with our IPF drug NXP002. But somebody somewhere has to spell out what this 'potentially' could mean for a small biotech company and drum up some investor interest. Dan may have beaten the drum too loud, too early; but at least he made an effort to bring in investors - needed not just to increase the price but also to absorb sellers.

I completely agree there 'should' be considerable investor excitement about a biotech company with 2 drugs that are exactly what the medical world currently wants. A massively improved inhaled treatment for IPF, itself a disease which is about to increase significantly due to long Covid. An enhanced form of Lynparza, which is rapidly establishing itself as one of worlds main anti-cancer drugs, but whose patent expires in some 5 years. Jointly owned not just by AZ but also Merck who paid a total of $8.5b to get half!

We have lacked any meaningful positive/promoting IR for some 2 years & it shows. But it is a critical function for the senior management of a biotech firm entirely reliant on equity finance - you create a buzz, you increase the share price & equity financing becomes less dilutive & destructive to shareholder value. You really don't have to go to Harvard to figure that one out.

Soup I was also watching the February trading closely given the rumour, and there was a lot of buying in the week of 6-11 February that drove the price up from 1p to 1.5p, and this was on a big jump in volume which went up to 10-20m per day. Also CPI may have been selling into the blip (as def was one other big holder) so there was a lot going on during that week that distinguished it from the normal half hearted ramps.

I was sceptical as I stated earlier but I assign a % truth value to the rumour (from a historically reliable source btw). Whatever the blip soon ended and back down we went - it does illustrate the potential for big movements when we get actual news.

Or was NFTs forced into a quasi retraction once he realised he had implicitly revealed his source?

Well 004 may well be far bigger than has been publicly indicated. I appreciate that people who obtain info are understandably reluctant to reveal what they specifically have or how they got it. But it would be interesting to hear from Older and NFT whether the information they have, is broadly similar (or indeed identical) to the rumour/info passed on to me in February as set out below?

Interesting NFTs you should say that about 004 - anything you can add as to why you think that would be useful. The rumour that led to a near 50% jump in the share price in February was centred around a claim that test results had come in for 004 that were exceptional, & the testing company had rarely seen such striking results.

Not having seen or heard anything further I had put it down to another ramp - albeit one that led to a considerably bigger % jump than those created by the usual twitter punters. The punchline then was that these 004 results now made 004 more valuable than our previous flagship 002.

And has Lanstead been set up to be one of the core investors in the buyout, accumulating a significant position at a bargain price, conveniently kept low by a withholding of information flow.

Filter thats my biggest concern, that we are being set up for a bargain basement insider bid, and the owners will then cash in 'Oxilio style' on the drugs we have spent 5 years financing.

Just about every single thing is wrong with the situation Riddell has intentionally put us in. Namely, a disastrous placing structure that destroys value, a failed promise of a CEO (ongoing for 11 months now), a failed update on NXP002 that has dragged on similarly for months & nothing but nothing on NXP004. Are we being set up for a rock bottom takeover bid - accept before you are bankrupted?

Odds have to be with KP2as they dont have Glencore as a 'partner', lucky them, how can they fail?

I am v interested in Lanstead & thresholds, maybe we could get a straight answer from IR.

Re-DMA, I use Interactive Brokers & on a number of small shares including NFX I have access to DMA (I didnt request it, it just happened). So my orders if the are the the most competitive appear as 'the' bid or ask. So its not just sophisticated investors who have access to DMA!

Soup, I completely agree with your observations about the placement. From the beginning it was clear this monthly structure is only beneficial if we maintained a price around 2p & above, but Riddell has not done anything to help that happen. He recognised this in the RNS of 14 December: "A significant factor in Nuformix's decision to enter into the Subscription is that the Sharing Agreements provide the opportunity for the Company to benefit from positive future share price performance...."

It is simple supply/demand, we have a monthly share 'supply' coming on to the market & no attempt to stir up demand with at the very least a positive take on our prospects, a teeny bit of enthusiasm wouldn't go amiss. Also if we are not going to get a CEO (as in reality there is no role) then state it & explain how you do intend to get those crucial deals - they wont walk through the door.

Regarding the minor issue of 'timescales are always hard', the only way we get a deal this year IMO is with 'out of the ordinary' test results. The rumour I heard - that was responsible for the February jump to 1.50p - was that the latest NXP004 tests had been extraordinary & the testing company had described them as one of the most striking they had ever seen. I stress that was the rumour (or likely ramp) but it would take something like that being confirmed to get us an early deal.

"If you know you know!" Interesting turn of phrase NFTs, reminds me of a frequent poster who used to be a regular on the board.

Exactly Filter those were the sentiments I should have added.