Member Info for jimtheknow

Why 4.2? If it breaks 3.8 I think it’s more likely going to get to 4.189

One last post before bedtime.... I’m pretty sure Mr Potter must read at least the occasional comment on this board, if you were him you surely would. I wonder if he’s sat there now as frustrated as us not knowing what the outcome will be? Or, he knows a poor deal could be done immediately but hell fire would rain down on him for looking like he’s fixed it for him and others with share options? Or, is he sat there now with Mr Exxon or Mr Equinor, all smiles and content knowing after all this time he can finally stick two fingers up at all those years of Potty bashing. Who knows???????

I think the only comparison that can be drawn with TERN regarding SP is that it floated around the 2 / 3p area for a bit before it rallied. TERN has about 6 or 7 times less shares in circulation than us, that matters. It’s only roughly the same size company as we are now. SOLG on the other hand has roughly the same and as far as I’m aware, were only exploring and proving up reserves and not producing when it went on it’s rally to 40+p. Is that right?

So from the turn of the year they’ve gone up roughly 100%. Right, so let me think... so this time next year we’ll be....... 7p! Fcuk me Oilbell-end I better cancel that conservatory you’ve built me up to buying! Ha ha.....

What happened at GKP, was there a share consolidation. I thought it went through a really bad times.

Who thinks this could do a SOLG? Is it even remotely comparable?

Shell, can’t see it, no way. They’re my least likely. If not Chinese then next bet Anadarko

Why, do you think it’s not possible? It almost feels like a nailed on certainty to me it is Chinese, it just fits. I’d be very interested to know the reasons why you think this sounds too wild. Also, I would be perfectly happy with any other major, especially a US or European, I’d be over the moon. I feel this will not be the case though.

I’m convinced there’s a twist coming in our story that few see/predict/want, etc. I think the structures represent enormous potential and look good, I think market conditions are more favourable than ever, I think the oil major is serious about following through with this, I think the BG want this to happen, but.... I think the major is Chinese or Canadian, the most likely being Chinese. I say this only to promote thinking as if this news is announced I wouldn’t want people to get too down in the dumps because it wasn’t Shell, Exxon, Statoil, etc. I smell Chinese.

I was thinking something similar. If they proved they had reserves a lot of the tax initiatives could be eased significantly. At the end of the day the population is relatively tiny, a good O&G revenue stream would be truely transformational for every single person who lived there.

Ha ha... one of the worlds largest oil explorers and fully integrated oil companies doesn’t have much offshore experience? DYOR

Why would someone need to get their head examined for it being a Chinese outfit? It wouldn’t be my top of the list preferred partner but it fits with a lot of things. Sinopec have very deep pockets as well and paying for an NDA would fit very nicely with that. There’s a huge amount of Chinese Work gong on there at the moment and it would be some coup if they could secure something like this these, right on the US maritime boundary. If you don’t think a Chinese outfit is possible I would say you know very little about global politics.

After doing some further reading on the back of our ‘who’s the major’ guessing game I’m more convinced our major is of Chinese origins. For me it fits with a lot of what is going on in Bahamas now and also with the Trump trade war and china’s general want to be active in a region like this, etc. The excluvity and non disclosure deal logically fits really well with it being Chinese, etc. It all seems to fit.

There is always the possibility the major may walk not of his own choice. People seem to forget this is not a one sided show here. It may not be BPC who make them walk either.

Probably worth adding that if it were a Chinese outfit the US might step in and veto it. The Bahamas is a sovereign nation and part of the Commonwealth, however, their financial status and general stature on the world stage is pretty lowly at the moment and they don’t have any muscle to flex and I think they’d dance to the tune of the US puppet master if told to behind closed doors. I wonder if this has been one of the subjects of discussion in the recent delegate/ambassador trips to & from the US that have been going on recently?

I think what makes this so interesting, as well as equally frustrating, is there are so many possible outcomes that each are about as possible as the other. We could hit the jackpot, it could be Equinor, we retain a reasonable percentage and get free carry on the well. If that were the case I see no reason why circa 30p pre drill couldn’t be achieved. On the flip side, we could be in with a Chinese outfit that as a partner in any other part of the world would be perfectly fine, but with some of the history/tension with the Chinese construction outfits in the Bahamas at the moment, plus their trade war tension with US, we might only see us climb just over the 10p mark. The obvious other alternative being no deal at all. If it were a Chinese outfit and the whole package couldn’t be sorted and sold to the Bahamas public and the major walked away the SP will obviously be back around/below 1p but I don’t see it a lost cause. I think someone would be interested but our hand would be significantly weakened and we’d have to take what we got.

I’d wouid tend to disagree with you on this, my view is: 1) Statoil, or Equinor as its now branded, I believe would be seen as the perfect partner, the very very top of the tree. Their environmental and ethical stance is matched by few in the industry. Anyone who has ever worked on a project or operations for them will tell you of exceptional working conditions and good pay. Their part state owned status and track record of working with their government and building the sovereign wealth fund is again exceptional and a model the BG would love to replicate. Statoil would be an easier PR message for BG. If it’s Statoil I would expect us to really get going. The negative on this would be they hold a very strong hand in negotiations. 2) As for who is an oil ‘major’, I think you’ll find most international operators would fall into this ‘Major’ group, including Hess. The bit that might be confusing is getting mixed up with the term Super Major and it would be true the number classed as these is much more selective. Personally, my gut feeling draws me to the conclusion our Major is someone not necessarily an off the shelf name for many people in UK. I suspect it it could very well be a US GoM operator like Anadarko or maybe a Canadian or Chinese outfit. Or maybe a less well known US Operstor like Apache. If you read Bahamas press you’ll see a lot of talk about Chinese backed projects and them trying to displace American companies. It would be a coup for China, or even Canada, to win something like this on the doorstep of US, especially with Trumps trade war. I’ve read the increased Chinese activity in the area has raised eyebrows in the US and the US need to start taking a greater interest in the area. However, an NDA would seem to fit with talking to Chinese??????? We are all patiently waiting.

Did anyone suggest Hess Corporation in the guessing game? Or do people think that could be too close a fit and there be a conflict of interests by BPC receiving a monthly payment and who our Chairman is?

I genuinely believe if these potential petroleum structures were in a jurisdiction that had an established O&G industry this SP would be circa 30p right now. I refer back to my comments previously about potential comparisons with Norway.... it’s possible to have a very advanced O&G industry, be incredibly ethical (research Norway Wealth Fund ethics) and considerate of the environment you operate in along with the global environment.

I’m not blind to this not working out, however, when you read the words of the RNS that was released when the EA application was submitted it’s difficult to see how the EA can’t be granted. The RNS states the application was made in full accordance with the requirements of the new legislation. However painful and frustrating it is to sit and wait this out, after years of virtually no news from the company, surely the right outcome will prevail. Also, I wonder where BPC would stand in making a counter claim against BG If the EA was declined? BPC must have had plenty of time to pour over every clause in the EA requirements, these are very senior Oil & Gas professionals who have done this all over the world, surely they know how to nail this.