Member Info for jimtheknow

Why 4m?

It was suggested around midday and seems to have split people down the middle and fuelled the fire. Not my fault :-)

Close, are you for real? Scroll back over the last 7hrs of posts :-)

Who remembers the 1 UT share traded a month or so ago? That had everyone in a tizz spouting ****e

But doesn’t the status quo prevail until information is stated otherwise?

Spike, I agree with you about the RNS, it’s caused havoc and I think it could have been handled differently. However, arent the company obliged to release market sensitive info as soon as they know about it themselves. Was there hand forced slightly in some way? To put a bit of a light hearted slant on it, i can see comparisons to this and the Clinton Trump presidential race when the FBI head said he’d reopened the case on Clinton days before going to the polls. :-)

This was a boring board last December/January, I can assure you that. A very very boring board!

MPos, your reckoning of how ‘parties’ are understood is incorrect. I say that simply to correct you, I’m not getting into ping pong discussions over this. If you don’t believe me then continue as you are. I’m a pretty well read and experienced person, if I’ve got this wrong then I’ll continue to get it wrong but I know (in myself) I’m correct. MQ are not an interested party in this respect, they are a facilitator and advisor, they are not an interested party with respect to this deal. They are simply an advisor to one party, that being BPC.

To be fair Spike, there is more in writing (in the RNS) that states a deal is still on, rather than off. The RNS states it wishes to end the ‘...exclusive nature of negotiations...’. This does not say an end to negotiations as we, certainly I, first assumed. To me it says it’s not willing to go it alone but I suspect being first st the table and having paid $1m they will have the lions share. Also, it specifically states opening up to third parties. You can’t have a third party without at least two at the table already. We have the Company, the Counterparty and now we are seeking a Third Party. I think the bit in there as well about non asset based discussions is also required from BPC, it’s the only card they have to play to walk away with a reasonable deal. They are saying that if all else fails they’ll raise capital themselves if everyone walks. Everyone knows that is pure desperation and highly unlikely to happen but they have to keep playing a straight bat in that respect, if they give that angle up they have nothing. I’ll happily own up to wanting this to succeed, I make no bones about that. But it does seem to fit, please tell me where my logic isn’t working here?

I don’t have a problem with Spike, he’s been posting here for a while and I can see some of the points he makes. There’s obviously a bit of handbags between you two. I think some points of his are overly pessimistic and I now feel they are probably wrong, as were some of my own points over the weekend e.g. we’re shafted with this major. I don’t think this is the case now, they are after sharing some risk. I do have a problem with some other rampers, the names of which I will not give the benefit of writing, I notice one popped up again recently. They make me feel sick and it’s a good job for them I don’t share any physical space with them.

This deal hangs on someone else coming on board, I’m pretty sure of that now. I think a lot of us had a knee jerk reaction and read the worst to start with, me included. I could obviously be wrong but I don’t think so. Maybe the company can say more when the NDA expires. I predict a small rally in the sp this week.

Just remember Kap, the multiple parties theory was mine, not Degsy or anyone else - mine! I was first, ha ha ha.... The more I think about it it’s obvious, isn’t it? I’m moving my Opinion from a Hold to Buy. :-)

My multiple oil company theory fits for everyone I think. A lot of us thought a deal was done/close as we appeared to be getting some good indicators for that. Some people think think the sp has been manipulated, posting a vague RNS like that has very much crashed the sp. It plays to those who think the deal is still on and also to those who think manipulation has taken place. The lawless AIM casino hey! Everyone’s now happy now go and get some Sunday lunch.

Kap, very common to spread costs and risk, it is almost the norm in all cases. People have talked a lot about the RNS, me included, but no one seems to have discussed the reference to a ‘third party’. The more I think about, the statement that says “...no longer extend the exclusive nature...” and that it is being opened up to “third parties” is not a bad indicator this has some credibility. Look at it this way. What happens to our oil major in the unlikely event there is another Deep Water Horizon? No company’s board would sanction that risk solely, if that happened to BP again it wouldn’t survive. However, if two or three oil companies spread this risk then that changes the risk profile significantly. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a farm out split of 45%45%10% or 30%30%30%10% the 10% being BPCs little bit. I think there is very good mileage in this and I open the floor up to others to say otherwise.

Kap, because people thought it might go to 20p and it now only sits at 2p has absolutely nothing to do with calculating a probability. I can’t begin to explain why as it would take too long and not be fair on others on this board. You need to go back to early secondary school lessons on Probability and continue the learning from there. I’m not being funny with you here or anything and I’ve got no problems with you, I’m just pointing out you don’t understand Probability or you have not chosen the right words to explain what you are thinking. What you think you are working out is not a Probability calculation, you’re just doing a basic percentage sum and wrongly associating it with something else.

As a bit of fun and food for thought, and most certainly for the people out there who like to really go looking for things, how about..... The major is interested but didn’t fancy taking on the whole cost and risk themselves. How about they have informally agreed to take on a certain proportion of cost and risk but would like another oil company to also shoulder some exposure, a ‘third party’. That is what the RNS says afte all, they have ended exclusivity and they are opening talks and possibilities to third parties. This is what is says. BPC wouldn’t say third party in an RNS if it were only going back out to the market for binary (two) discussions with other people. You look at every single oil play anywhere in the world, and I mean anywhere. UKCS, GoM - anywhere. No oil company goes it alone. A prospect might be badged up as BP, Chevron, Connoco, etc but it’s only badged up by majority shareholder and therefore Operator. You heard it here first.

Asset based discussions are those related to farm-in options. Non asset based discussions are pure financing deals.

Kap, mathmatics is obviously not your strong point, particularly your understanding of Probability.

I’ve saud it before and I’ll say it again, as it stands at them moment, this isn’t the end of BPC, not yet. There are obviously some gutted and bitter people posting, there’ll also be the trolls who just like to stir up misery for no other reason than to do that. If BPC haven’t made any inroads by December/January into bringing a JV in or financing, then yes this is probably over. To state now this is completely over is either sour grapes, blinkered or agenda driven. We have had 1 company terminate an exclusivity agreement, an agreement they were paying for. It is not beyond reason to think either terms could not be agreed or the prospect didn’t fit their business model. Other companies may take a different view, this is perfectly plausible, you don’t have to be a fantasist to consider this. When we submitted the EA application no one, and I mean no one, saw the exclusivity deal coming shortly after - this was a big surprise. We are now in the same position as before the EA was submitted but we will have now definitely knocked some numbers around with a major, rather than speculate what we think we’re worth and we now have MQ on board. These are all very important points and I simply can not see this dragging along like it has over the last few years. We will get a conclusion on this relatively soon, it may be good, it may be bad? We will have to wait and watch.

Barney, I like your post. I do think we’ve been played, as to how much we can only speculate unfortunately. We really do need some type of communication from the company, however restricted they may be in that process.