Member Info for jimtheknow

Simon Potter has accumulated 63.5m shares. Read 6th August RNS. DYOR

All this talk of manipulation is frustrating as well, it’s pure fiction. If ordinary people like us appear to be able to figure out deliberate manipulation for a fact, what chance would a company/person have if they were under official investigation from the FCA? None. They’d be exposed immediately. There’s more chance of the moon being made of cheese. Also, all this talk of the major waiving their last week. Come on, get real. Why would anyone who has bought something, for good money, give it up for absolutely no reason. They’re not going to - simple. They’ll just leave it expire and move on, or, if you’re really into conspiracy theories then they might not have move on. What they certainly aren’t going to do though is give something up.

Deoending on how things turn out over next couple of months with regards other companies or possible need to raise finances without a partner then yes, there is always the possibility of a placing, but an annoncement of one on Tuesday - crazy. BPC couldn’t release an RNS like they did on Friday, with a specific statement regarding funding being ok for the foreseeable and then drop a bombshell for a placing on Tuesday. Absolutely crazy. Technically they’re still in exclusive talks all next week. There will be a period after the exclusivity deal officially expires where BPC go around pitching to others, if all that fails then maybe we will see some fund raising.

Seriously, you think there could be an announcement of a placing on Tuesday - this Tuesday? I can’t see it, i simply can’t see it. I’d say there’s more chance of our major signing up on Tuesday than a placing and I can’t see the major signing. If there’s an RNS for a placing on Tuesday I know nothing about anything, if that happens I’m selling up everything I have in life, giving everything to charity and seeing out my days as a Nepalese monk in a society without money.

How wise do you think it is having someone sat at the negotiating table who has 63+m shares? Regardless of the business side of things, it must niggle with those sat on the opposite side of the table that if they give him a deal it makes the bloke a multimillionaire, many times over.

Been catching up on all the posts and I tend to agree with all the sensible, balanced points and completely agree with the precarious position we find ourselves in but I also don’t feel it’s game over just yet. One point I’d like to make.... there are quite a few comments in posts that seem to imply because one major has passed us up then that means others will also. I’d like to remind people the history of oil drilling is absolutely littered with examples where an oil major walks away from a prospect, only for another to come in and take that chance, it really is very common. I am certainly not saying we’re going to have a line of companies beating down our door, but there most certainly isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ business model and company risk profile. Absolutely no way. MQ will know this better than most.

Yes

I don’t believe there’s anything underhand going on to drop the SP, that’s something from a book or a film. However, what is possibly quite likely is that the major has said this is my red line which I’m not willing to cross and BPC think that’s undervalued. The major has said they are not willing to continue paying money for further negotiations. It’s a game, deal negotiations are not black & white, people work each other and test each other limits and resolve. It happens in every walk of life, our situation here is no different. The difference here is there are legal obligations to inform markets of pertinent information so we see the big decisions play out without seeing the detail. I’ve no doubt there’s a bit of brinkmanship going on and if it goes right for us then fair play to the board. However, if we get no one else then it has failed. Let’s hope the professionals (board, MQ) know what they are doing, after all, this is their day job.

Just in case I get accusations of ramping or whatever... even if there is/was some type of poor deal that could be done with the major we were taking to, I think we are probably completely shafted with them now, they’re gone now. Can you imagine the terms of any deal if we had to go back cap in hand now? We might as well just bend over and pull our pants down. The deal with that major is undoubtedly gone, we are loooking for fresh players or financing now I think.

I often agree with reading into the detail because as people quite rightly point out, you often have to read into what isn’t said as much as is said. However, from the original Exclusivity RNS, I took from that it was at the discretion on the Counterparty to extend if they wish, I don’t believe BPC could call it off to go looking for a deal elsewhere. We may have come to a stalemate in negotiations and effectively broke it off in that way, but I don’t believe it was in our gift to break it off to look for something better. It was definitely the Counterparty that chose not to extend. It might be a subtlety but it’s important. Some posts appear to indicate this was of our doing and I think the RNS tried to put that spin on it as well.

Few things. I can’t see an RNS Tuesday, or next week, certainly nothing that points towards the conclusion of any deal. I suspect it’ll be in the order of months before a ‘deal / no deal’ type RNS is released. We do deserve some communication but I guess this could be done in other types of press release. Comments that this SP has a ‘long way to fall’ are just silly and disingenuous. We’ve just fallen a long way, there isn’t a long way to still fall! The major damage is done. Yes, this could flirt with going to 1p and it may do, but until confirmation we are dead and buried i.e. there’s no more cash left and our licenses have expired, this will stay above 1p. I’m very very confident of that. For those who can stomach the risk this is a good buy in point, that’s why we were seeing big money fly into this on Friday.

There’s no way the geology and seismic are anymore dodgey than any other ‘new frontier’, absolutely no way. If they were BPC would not exist today and it certainly wouldn’t have gone through this exclusivity period. If you think it’s geology that’s the problem you don’t know what you were investing in and you should go look for stocks you understand better. This has broken down because either the BG were not forthcoming enough or quite simply, terms of a deal could not be agreed. It’s difficulty to believe, although possible, that the BG would block this. The BPC story has gone on too long for it to be a BG issue I feel, they would have killed this years ago. That leaves it down to deal making for me. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if we were to find out later that a deal was tabled but on very poor terms. I’m not painting a rosey picture here but it’s easy for anyone to see how BPC must appear desperate and if you’re an oil major you have as much time and money as you like, they are very much the dominant force in all this. In some ways the nature of the exclusivity agreement wasn’t good for BPC and was a clever move by the major. It pushed BPC’s licenses that little bit further down the road, increasing any apparent desperation if a deal wasn’t done. It pushes the sword in that little bit deeper. I think the major has been playing us all the way through this and it wouldn’t surprise if this was always their game plan. Gone are the days of conducting business in a gentlemanly fashion. If a company could double its reserves by putting another to the sword of course it would. This is big business. I am still trusting (just) of the board and it’s advisors here, they must know the global market and from their knowledge and experience they must fancy their chances. It is without doubt a risk, an existential risk - there can be no bigger. If this is too much for you to stomach I advise you to sell up and go somewhere else, this is not the place for you. I’m sticking around till the death that’s for sure and for all those who do, good luck, we do need a bit of it. I believe this could go either way, I can see equally how this could be 0.3p or 30p. What has annoyed me for a long time with this company is it’s poor news flow and investor relations, it is often radio silence. Although we understand there were confidential aspects to the exclusivity agreement, we investors deserve some answers and simple dialogue, this is our money. I have taken the lack of communication to date as an arrogant sign of confidence the board have in themselves in believing/knowing a deal will be done and I think this continues. However, we are closer than ever now to the brink so we deserve something.

It’s simply false for people to say this deal broke down because an assessment by the oil major has decided that there wasn’t commercial volumes of oil, simply not true. The tell take signs in the geology are there and the only way to know for sure about this with any prospect is to stick a well in it. Not having commercial quantities of oil is already factored in and is the risk. This is the most unlikely reason this deal broke down because of the basic geology wasn’t present it wouldn’t have got as far as it did. This deal has come to a stalemate because of issues other than the geology, that is by far the most likely reason.

For what it’s worth I don’t think we’re dead in the water here but I totally accept this is far from ideal. What none of us here don’t know is why the deal broke off. If it was because of the BG then that is a big problem, probably an insurmountable problem for the life BPC has left in it’s licenses. However, if it was because it was a bad deal and it’s a game of who blinks first, which it could be, then I feel there is still a twist to come. You can only ask why have you invested? If you believe in the information published about the structures, respected industry professionals opinions e.g. Paul Crevello, the independent reports, then nothing has changed here. I do fear the BG weren’t publically vocal enough here to even appear to be seriously pursuing oil in there ‘blue economy’ model. From the outside they appear to be very weak here and if they have been the blocker then the way they’ve conducted themselves doesn’t bode well for attracting other foreign investment, at a time they do desperately need it. In some ways there is a bit of relief here for those holding and not trading, it was torture not knowing but knowing news could come at any time. I feel and hope any further negotiations with other parties will not be so disclosed and it will come out of nowhere with a quicker resolution. It wouldnt surprise me to hear something else in next few weeks. For what it’s worth I’m not selling, I’m holding and hoping.

Good old Bond’y :-)

Shell haven’t won a bid to build a refinery

A lot of people have said that for months but have not been able to substantiate that. What makes you any different. Reading tea leaves?

Also Kap, if a drill takes say, 120 days, there will be people out there that think they can do more with their money in that period even if they believe in this project. They’ll then move in and take positions closer to drill results in expectation of making their percentage. We’ve just experienced something similar after Malcy’s blog, people left to go do something else with their money for a bit, at their risk.

A little bit of (incomplete) knowledge in the wrong hands is dangerous.

One thing is for sure, we are guaranteed an RNS at some point within the next 6 working days. Will it come early/later in those days? Will it be good, bad or just notification of another extension? My feeling is another extension will be announced in the next RNS with a deal announced on 26/27th Sept.