Member Info for jimtheknow

Although I feel there are more twists, turns and surprises to come, I feel we will get a deal done. Assuming the BG really want it, which you’ve got to believe they have with the legislation and rhetoric over recent years. If structures that have all the indicators like we have were anywhere else in the world there’d have been wells in them by now to the benefits of all. In every professionals opinion these are ‘world’ scale structures. It’s an incredibly difficult mind game to sit on the sidelines and wait but remember why you bought in, how long you’ve waited already and what the potential upside is.

Anadarko

Like everyone else, I can only speculate but I think a complete takeover is slightly the favourite. I also think any deal will be made up of a cash and share offer. Just my thoughts.

Nothing other than simple business. I’ve invested here, believe in it and I have a significant holding so there’s no de-ramping or anything going on. The simple facts are this, we have discovered no oil yet, nothing. The tell-tale signs are there for a significant find but as we stand we have nothing more than potential and hope and when the truth is told our negotiating hand, although not desperate, is a situation where we require someone else onboard. BPC have made no secret of this. Business, especially big business is not stupid, it doesn’t give away large sums of money just to make people happy - I think we all wish it would. Anyone who has been on the junior miner/oil’y train before will tell you it more often than not results in a deal somewhat less than one which is a straight calc of reserves in place, never mind potential reserves. If it were your £2, 3 or 400m pounds would you give it away on potential, would you give away a large lump of money just because you thought the other party deserved it? I don’t think so, you look after your company’s interests.

I think there’s a very good chance this will go all the way to the 3rd extension and in my opinion both parties knew that at the start of this exclusivity deal. Although by no means guaranteed, I think a deal will also be done. As with what always happens in these situations though, us PI’s will never realise the full value these assets have to offer. I think we’ll get a nice deal, certainly for those who got in in the low pennies area. What we won’t get though is a deal which is a straight calculation of reserves in place x any percentage we retain. Im hopeful and optimistic of a deal that concludes with us seeing something around 30p/share but won’t (unfortunately) see anything near the £1 mark.

That’s part of the problem though, it’s not strictly true that the oil refinery is approved and will definitely go ahead, they’ve only got so far as to sign a Heads of Agreement, there are more hoops to jump through. In our case, if you have a read of the Bahamas Petroleum Regulations 2016, Clause 5 (pgs 7 & 8) details the independent bodies that need to be satisfied to grant Environmental Authorisation, subclause (f) being the Bahamas National Trust. In the case of the oil refinery the National Trust have stayed in the press they can’t see “any situation” where they would be happy with a refinery. If it were just down to the government I think we would be on our way now but unfortunately there are others to please.

....but has anyone read this? It may help understand how business is done in the Bahamas. It would appear the BG have a lot to learn and things aren’t done quickly, or smoothly. http://m.tribune242.com/news/2018/mar/27/richard-coulsons-business-bites-oban-saga-not-all-/?templates=mobile

If they walk then we all know what’ll happen but if they sign up for a 4th month then surely that must see a little rerate to new territory, mustn’t it?

A big uncertainty in this whole process is whether the region has active petroleum systems below the ground, in other words is there oil down there? We can all read the reports on the BPC website of how promising everything looks from their seismic data, etc but there will always be doubt in some people’s mind as to whether BPC are just painting a rosey picture. For those in any doubt about this I would ask you to research Cuban Oil Reserves, just simply type that into google and read the Wikipedia page or for those after something a bit more serious I would advise you to look at the information available online from the US Geolocal Survey (USGS) and what they say about the North Cuba Basin, this basin is directly adjacent and butts up against the Bahamas Carbonate Platform, our license areas. USGS is a US government institution, not some private research group with an interest in BPC. The USGS estimate the mean volume of undiscovered oil reserves in the Cuba Basin as 4.6 billion barrels. Given Cuba & Bahamas are so close geographically this is a very very strong indicator to me the right conditions exist for oil to be present in our area, so what next? Even if you know nothing about oil exploration you will know one thing in life that relates to our licenses and that is oil floats on water, it rises. So how does this relate to us, well.... Over millions of years oil slowly rises up through porous rock underground until it can’t go any further until it is captured by a trap and guess what? We have the mother of all high point traps in Fold B, over 70km in length - this is enormous! For me, I’m confident there are very good volumes of oil present and so is the oil major so the only thing left in the puzzle is government approval. We have had prominent members of BG (Deputy PM Turnquest, Attorney General Bethel...) openly state the want and need to explore for O&G and seize this opportunity, they understand the risks and they are responsible and strong enough to make tough decisions for the benefit of their nation, possibly unpopular decisions to some. Read about Bahamas VAT increase. What’s left? Only time, it’s just a waiting game now and this wait could be over in days or months. The BG PM returns from New York on 19th, when he’s back I’d hope we should get an announcent not too long after. DYOR. GLA.

It’s obviously possible a deal may not be done and that may very well be for a good reason. However, what we should expect as a minimum from the board of BPC is good communication in why a deal couldn’t be done and further details on what companies were turned away during the exclusivity period. If we the board revert back to their previous position of radio silence, showing complete contempt to shareholders we, as shareholders of our company, must demand that heads roll with no payoff or remuneration, we have suffered far too long.

How about it being a Russian major?

£1.50 per share would make the company worth up and around 2.5 billion pounds. How many companies are you aware of that have reached £2.5bn in 12 months? I’m not saying that is impossible, but it’s highly unlikely. We need to learn to crawl, before we can walk, before we can run. We are now just stabilising around the 5p mark, any bad news and we are straight back down to 0.5p. Any good news could see us 20+p. We’ll know the answer to this within 3 months, probably within 6 weeks. And if after that we find oil.... you might see £1+ for when football comes home in 2020

We don’t do horses mouths on here or even plain and simple facts anymore JBT, it has to be something that maintains an element of fantasy. Now if you’d have said straight from the unicorns mouth.....

MP, I agree it will hammer the SP, I’ve no doubts about that. However, my reasoning that it’s not the end of the world is based on not knowing why any deal was not done. If you look at the facts about our prosepects they speak for themselves, you don’t get much better fundamentals than this in a new play so I can see where the attraction is in wanting to sink a well. The deal with major may not happen for many reasons and those reasons may not be because of anything on our side of the fence, we also may not like the terms of any deal? Some people have also posted valid points on how funds could be raised or bolstered. The important thing is we get permission from BG to drill, with this it’s likeky other suitors will be interested. This exclusivity deal just puts the current major to the front of the queue, that’s all the deal is about. People are generally fickle, greedy, temperamental, short term in nature and they want it all now - that is our society today. The major deal doesn’t happen the SP will plummet, that doesn’t mean it’s over for BPC.

Degsy, my kids are all grown up now and each successful in their own professions. That took an enormous amount of hard work and effort from themselves but I’d like to think on that journey I kept their feet on the ground with level head and most certainly able to spot the charlatans that often appear in life. The truth is we are looking at very positive fundamentals with BPC, I personally think we are still undervalued for where we are and what we have. This is still a strong buy for me, I think we most certainly warrant a £100m+ market cap before news and I also think it’s not the end of the world if the deal with current major is not done. The biggest thing for me as it stands is getting EA approval and it’s difficult to see how this can’t go through.

Ok, so what are they going to do? They sit down and tell their population “look people, we’re deep in debt, our financial status is pretty much junk, the economic pillars which we have survived on to date can no longer be relied upon. But wait, we have the answer, we’re going to drill for oil and all our troubles will be answered. We will no longer have to worry about money issues again and we will become like Norway with a sovereign wealth fund other nations can only dream of.” So they move to drill a well and 120 days later BPC & Major Tom announce they’ve drilled a duster. Great nation building, morale boosting announcent that would have been wouldnt it. The nation might as well just give up if that happened. Don’t you think they would save such an announcement for when they have some results from a drill, a drill with a CoS of 35%? I’m guessing you voted Leave on Brexit didn’t you?

Old news. Plus, I don’t see how this has much relevance to us. If we start drilling there’ll be virtually no immediate change to Bahamain employment. Drilling will involve a rig contracted in from an external provider fully manned up with their own operators. However, should the rig find oil then the government will have something special to talk about. It really is disappointing people clutching at straws when trying to ramp. Sick of it.

No chance today, it’s popped. Good to hold for 3.8

It is but you do need to go looking for it. It should be in your face, the first thing you read. It should be a written statement from our board and not through the words of other reporters. It’s lazy from BPC and demonstrates a degree of negligence. Our board need to do their job properly and as a bare minimum should be keeping our webpage up to date. That includes removing outdated news and replacing with that which is current. They should be doing their best for us in all aspects of running the company, there is so much more to do than just the technical side of things.

It really frustrates and annoys me the lack of effort the BPC management put into promoting and informing others of the current status of our company. If you go on the BPC ‘About Us’ page It still has a lot of the doom & gloom about when the industry was down and no mention of current major deal. We’ve all been in this a long time so are close to it but you can’t help but feel a little bit more effort from the leadership team could have helped this SP higher. It makes you wonder why? Could they be protecting ex-colleagues in other majors from being deterred from investing? Are they so sure a deal will go through anyway they are complacent? It is poor from them and lacks professionalism. If a good deal is done all will be forgotten but if not they need to be fired. Im absolutely certain other AIM leadership teams would have promoted us better than this.