Member Info for Jimmy23

53 million shares as a buy, late trade, old seller gone, new buyer!

Jimmy

The chance of success for mou 5 is per the independent technical report, I think it’s too low, but the low rating is because the reservoir is carbonate and because there is no 3D seismic we do not know how laterally extensive the proposed high porosity areas as they could be due to both or either of leaching or fracture porosity.

So even if it’s a discovery it will require 3D seismic and multiple appraisal wells.

In my opinion, better to flow test the substantial gas reservoirs already reported to get to 50 mmcf per day and use the cashflow to drill all the follow on wells.

It’s approaching 3 years since mou 1 was completed , the shallow gas in mou 4 and mou 3 alone are enough to get into production, and even if the mud invasion in the mou fan is too extensive, it can be redrilled from production cashflow.

Jimmy

Some interesting new information in the operational review

1. The mou 4 shallow sands of 20 meters of m1 reservoir now included as gas reservoirs per nuetech, such gas reservoirs were excluded from the independent technical report in January.

2. Mou 4 fan reservoir now increased to 20 meters and confirms that mou fan has a stratigraphic closure with reservoir extending to 68 km2.

3. Mou 2 fan reservoir now at 100 meters , of variable quality but not known if its gas bearing or not as not logged.

4. Mou 3 shallow gas , not logged, but can be flow tested by sand jet.

5. Mou 5 Jurassic to be drilled April or may, subject to exploration licence extension.

Which is all great news. However it seems to me that pg is prioritising drilling mou 5 jurrasic target, 12% chance of success , compared to prioritising flow rates from so many reservoirs. While I like the mou 5 prospect, the market is looking for a clear pathway to cashflow and to avoid further dilution. The operational report indicates they have more than enough reservoirs to deliver 50 mmcf per day for cng, surely that’s the priority ,

Jimmy

SDX issued rns yesterday to say that it had spud its bmk 2 well in Morocco.

Chariot have tweeted to say that they are next in line to receive the star valley rig to drill its two wells onshore .

It’s hard to see prd getting the rig earlier than end of may or early June.

So it seems to me that prd will need to revise its exploration permit extension to a later date than 5th June 2024.

If others have a different analysis please post your reasons.

Jimmy

The last page of the presentation provides an update on well mou 2, including a reference to the recovery of three gas samples from shallow gas.

A review of the mud log at

https://www.predatoroilandgas.com/media/

Is worthwhile.

Firstly, it should be noted that wireline logs were not run in the early section of the well, I suspect a cost saving measure that I hope is not repeated.

The mud logs are very detailed and they show the depth at which the three gas samples were recovered, 525 , 630 and 674 meters and the geological horizon is described as M1 sands.A quick view of the mud logs indicates about 60 meters of reservoir.

There may be a lot more shallow gas than the Itr indicated.

We need to get to cashflow asap, so good to flow test these horizons also.

Jimmy

I have to say the rns form is hard reading, but I think it’s saying that a cfd for 3.23 of the issued share capital has been closed and cash settled, which may well explain the long drop in share price. Do others read it the same way?

Jimmy

Seller of shares issued notification of sale.

Perhaps the shares can recover now.

Jimmy

The last page of the corporate presentation provides an update on mou 2 well results.

In particular it shows the horizons from which theee gas samples were recovered.

That’s really important because it’s the first conclusive evidence that gas is present and that the quality of the gas is suitable for cng.

Inset on the presentation page is a log which shows the shallow horizon from which one gas sample was recovered from a reservoir of approx 4 meters. While the clarity of the log is not great , I compared it to the strip log previously published for mou2 and I believe it is at a horizon of 630 meters.

Which is interesting because the shallow gas horizon in mou 1 was reported at 605 meters and had a p50 resource of 28 bcf based on a prospect area of only 6.5 km2 , and thickness of 10 meters.

This would seem to indicate that these shallow reservoirs in each well are in communication, and would appear to justify an increase contingent resources. Probably circa 100bcf is my guess.

In addition, the recovery of gas from reservoirs allows the wireline logs to be calibrated to reflect the known gas samples and in turn allows the seismic to be used to be recalibrated to wire line logs to map its lateral extent.

That final page in the presentation was not included pg presentation to proactive as he ran out of time, I wonder what he would have said.

Jimmy

So page 22 of the presentation reports that gas samples recovered in the shallow zone at mou 2.

A cross check to the mud logs shows this occurred at 630 meters, so not the new A sand, bit perhaps the Ma sand. Other views welcome, most likely not included in proven resource yet.

Jimmy

Chariot has a joint venture with vivo energy , for the sale of gas to industrial users , who I believe will look after the capex for cng and distribution .

Quick route to cashflow.

Jimmy

Keith,

What’s your opinion on the revised mou2 well results on the final page of the presentation?

Was gas found in the mou fan reservoir?

Jimmy

Nice to see another director buy shares in the market pre drilling

Jimmy

Still there, look under media or video presentation. It’s not in presentations.

Jimmy

Ant.

It’s true that the onshore potential is more than the 1tcf I suggested.

However, we need to prove up thicker sands such as the 300 meters found in lnb 1.

The flow rates expected by chariot are very conservative also.

Jimmy

Paul gave a good presentation, we just need to validate the data to date by way of flow rates.

There is potential for a lot of gas and being onshore in a country that imports gas it’s a good place to be.

From a geological perspective the big advantage this geology has is that there are great sealing rocks to keep a lot of the gas in place after it’s trapped, particularly important in a basin that’s undergone two periods of inversion which can cause gas to escape and potentially breach the top seals.

The presentation also notes that in the main guercif reservoirs the middle reservoirs are in a stratigraphic trap and the deeper reservoirs are in a structural trap.

Because there is no 3D seismic we cannot assume there are stratigraphic traps elswhere in the licence.

For these reasons, the 7tcf of gas generated from the bio genie source rocks will not all be trapped in reservoirs and even then circa 60% will be recovered in production.

So a rough estimate of the potential for biogenic gas , subject to lots of drilling , is 7000 bcf x 60%x 60% = 2.5 tcf

Still a lot of gas potential.

Jimmy

Sorry, posted on wrong company

Jimmy

New presentation just out on website.

Looks great.

Jimmy

Hi Matt, agd.

Many thanks. Looking forward to the much anticipated sand jet flow testing.

I am invested in predator and chariot, not conflicts of interest, just looking to make money in both. I constantly recheck information as you indicated.

Jimmy

I am delighted there is a strategic review underway for the renewables.

Investors will note that despite chariot having several renewable projects in its portfolio which are in operation, chariot does not report any revenue from such source, that’s because the investments are in joint venture companies where majority control lies with total Erin. Hence the profits are not recognised till dividends are paid from the jv company and that will not occur till project debt for such projects is repaid. So although these are good projects, they have a long payback.

That compares with the very short payback from onshore morroco in the loukos licence where payback is likely to be around one year per production well, so better returns for shareholders.

Jimmy

With regard to the potential of the biogenic gas, do the calculation of gas generated from source rock, take account that a lot of gas has indeed filled the reservoirs but also that gas has seeped away, as evidenced from the gas cloud in the seismic to the east of mou 2.

There is definitely potential, but none of the experts reports, even in the most optimistic scenario of p10 outcomes come anywhere near 7 tcf.

Because there is no 3D seismic the area will require a lot drilling to prove up the higher gas volumes that are the subject of speculation on this board. So it’s very important to get into production cashflow asap and use the profits to drill out the area to prove up the higher gas volumes. I see that as a better use of funds than a new exploration project in west Africa.

The carbonate platform project is very interesting

I don’t understand why the p10 volumes of 637 bcf are based on 50 meters of reservoir when the carbonate section prognoised is 247 meters of which the bottom interesected 2 meters of which were high porosity and high gas saturation in mou 4 well, why is it not 247 meters of such high porosity carbonates?

In addition, the last experts report assigned a 12% chance of success to the carbonates, even though gas was proven down dipin mou 4 . I think I must be missing something.

Jimmy