Member Info for Jimmy23

I did not expect any Irish licence to be extended, but Ryan saw common sense,

Looks good for predator then.

See.

https://www.irishtimes.com/environment/climate-crisis/2024/02/01/green-party-accused-of-facilitating-fossil-fuel-expansion-as-exploration-licence-off-west-coast-is-extended/

Jimmy

Great to sea enorgean appoint a country manager to Morocco with recent experience of developing and producing with a subsea completion.

Looking good

Jimmy

KnC.

I too am excited about chariot and it’s 2024 plans. However, the exploration in the rissana licence where the the truly giant gas prospects are located is to shoot additional seismic , not to drill this year.

The onshore Loukas licences has deeper potential such as the 300 meters of reservoir found by lnb 1 well , which had high gas shows but was not logged due to drilling conditions. If that reservoir is found to be gas bearing by chariot it would derisk the giant offshore prospects.

Jimmy

Nice late trade yesterday

Hi fernan

It’s not a pre sale of the price on the gas futures market but a loan from a customer as a pre payment for future gas delivery at a discounted price, something that sound energy have done in Morocco

Just an option, project finance equally as likely.

Jimmy

Being up more than 10% that’s an official. Booooom day

At long last

Jimmy

Hi surfit,

Good question.

There are two sources of non equity finance likely to be available to fund the onshore development capex, firstly some customers in Morocco will pre pay for gas at the development stage and get a discount, secondly there is plenty of project finance available in Morocco given the strong cashflow generating capacity of onshore

Jimmy

Great update.

I like the comment regarding the secondary objective in the upcoming wells, 300 meters found in lnb1

“ Early fast-track product from the 3D seismic reprocessing project has allowed identification of secondary objectives for the upcoming wells, which are under evaluation.”

Jimmy

Hi fernan, jt

The flow rates for the rharb basin are calculated in some research for comparative flows rates for predator and can read at.

https://www.reddit.com/r/PredatorOilandGasPRD/comments/xqaeza/prd_the_sleeping_giant/

The recent rns from predator indicates a high probability of 20 mmcf per day and rising in due course to 50 mmcf from further wells that need to be drilled and tested. The anchois reservoirs although offshore are substantially thicker with very much larger proven and probable gas volumes.

The recent predator technical report suggested delivery of cng gas from guercif by trailer to the SDX pipeline that delivers gas to the industrial users at kenitra. Chariot was hoping to deliver its gas by pipeline directly to the SDX pipeline, so some competition there I think. Chariot have proven gas volumes to deliver high volumes of gas for power generation over long periods, predator have some way to go to achieve the same.

Jimmy

Interesting to read the great technical report recently issued and to compare to the last cpr to see how it changed based on the well results from mou 2,3,4.

Firstly the project is substantially derisked with a route to cashflow which can finance follow on wells to increase proven gas volumes. Based on the technical data reported there will be sufficient gas to get to production but shareholders expecting mult tcf results will be disappointed.

However, the Itr does seem to resolve some of the technical uncertainties identified in the cpr, namely the continuity of mou fan reservoirs between mou 1 and mou 3, subject to flow testing.

I noted the following additional information.

1. The mou fan area is increased from 30km2 to 68.2 km2

2. The Ma sand is mapped as continuing between mou 1 and mou 3

3. The mou fan sand reservoir not reached by the suspended well mou 2 seem to have a gross thickness of about 140 meters, to be confirmed by further drilling mou 2.

4. Mou 3 well seem to have encountered the mud seal also found in mou 2, opening up a possible route to completing the suspended well.

5.the new shallow reservoir called the A sands , have been assigned the highest chance of success at 64% even though the reservoir section in mou 3 was not logged by wireline logs. Very low cost to drill and complete but smallish potential reserves.

6. There is going to be flow testing of a previously un noted reservoir, highly porous volcanic rocks found in mou 4.

7. The mou fan reservoirs do not have acquirer support, but are overpressurized and hence are likely to be full . The mou fan area of 68 km2 is mapped as being stratigraphically sealed laterally by way of reservoir pinch out into shales. Hence no gas water contact to be be concerned about in a very much larger area than originally anticipated.

8. The jurrasic carbonates have been mapped into a high porosity sequence and a lower porosity sequence. The lower risk high porosity area is now approx 55km2 and the medium area risk area is 94.5 km and the high upside potential is a177 km2.

9. The carbonate reef thickness is estimated up dip of mou 4 at 18 to 20 meters, well down on previous estimates of circa 240 meters, but it’s still very interesting but will need a few wells to provide it up.

10. Plans are to deliver cng gas by trailer to the SDX pipeline for transmission to customers in kenitra, expect some competition for that pipeline capacity.

Jimmy

Great summary Myoung.

Hi surfit, a review of the SDX announcements from 2018 is worthwhile to consider the potential.

Firstly they stated there is a 10 meter reservoir sequence in the Miocene which is widespread in the onshore 3D seismic acreage and chariot have identified as being in four very low risk prospects they identified in the 3D seismic

The average flow rate per meter for reservoirs in the rharb basin is 1.1 mmcf per day per meter, so expect a flow rate of approx 11 mmcf per day from the primary target for each of four wells.

The route to market is interesting as there appear to be two options

a) SDX announced they have spare capacity in their pipeline to the industrial users in kenitra and they are looking to monetise that, these could be a pipeline tariff of 10 to 20% of end user price.the price for cng is reported by predator as $12 mcf. I estimate opex at approx$1 mcf so a strong cashflow generator.

b) chariot have signed a gas distribution deal with a vitol subsidiary . The predator recently announced economics for cng reported a net back to predator of $6 mmcf, which for chariot to produce at gross 40 mmcf per day would be $180 k per day or $65 million per year.

That’s the low risk option. However, the SDX rns of 20th April 2018 reported a major discovery of 300 meters of net sands in lnb1 well which is now in chariots onshore acreage , the reservoir is in the lafkerma sequence and had average elevated gas shows of 20% and some zones exceeded 50%. The reservoir was not logged by SDX due to drilling conditions. If this reservoir is updip and below the main target, then that’s a very pleasant upside surprise.

Jimmy

It would be unusual to announce the commencement of flow testing particularly if a firm date for its commencement had previously been given, usually the flow test results are announced.

Now if the previously announced start date was not met, then that would require an Rns to update the market.

Since no rns has issued and if an Rns is not issued to morrow, then I think it’s safe to asssume flow testing has started,

I expect cfd investors will buy in to morrow on that basis.

Jimmy

A value of £10 billion can be back calculated to 6.3 tcf net to predator based on a previous npv valuation from predator of $2 million per bcf.

This will require all discovered zones so far to be laterally extensive and most importantly for the Jurassic carbonates to thicken to circa 200 meters from 2 meters and be highly porous with high permeability, do able but it will be a long journey, starting shortly.

Jimmy

A good point raised by GRH regarding the GRF 1 well.

Firstly we don’t know the net sands in GRF1 gross reservoir of 230 meters and which reservoir sand they encountered.

Based on reported depths, it could be the tgb2 reservoir, which is shown on page 108 of the recent prospectus.

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/08/20230810-Project-Allossaurus-Prospectus-FINAL.pdf

If grf1 had gas reservoirs the depth mapping referenced above would indicate there is a substantial area up dip of such well .

However, the key indicator of gas potential in the rharb basin and indeed at guercif, has been the seismic amplitude mapping, which has a high exploration success rate, so interesting to know if the gross reservoir of 230 meters in grf 1 also has a seismic amplitude signature.

With regard to GRH point about gas migration from source rocks migrating to reservoirs on both sides of a fault, I believe this was proven in mou 4 tgb2 reservoir which found gas on the east side of a fault in the mou fan.

The upside is considerable, but the priority is to validate the wireline log gas intervals by producing gas which can then be used as a basis to assess the region. However, from a commercial perspective, and shareholder value, it’s get to production cashflow and use the finance to drill up the potential of the area.

Jimmy

Good point from GRH,

The Sah2 well in the nearby rharb basin encountered 5.2 meters of reservoir, which was over pressured and which was reported as flowing at a rate of 12.9 mmcf per day, which equates to 2.48 mmcf per day per meter.

If the 20 meters of reservoirs to be initially flow tested by predator had similar high pressure and high porosity then pro rata the flow rate would total 49 .6 mmcf per day.

Furthermore, if the pressure regime in the similar reservoirs in mou 1 and mou 3 were similar, adjusted for depth, then a strong argument can be made, provided the flow rates and pressures are sustained, that such reservoirs are in communication , in which case predator stated they would apply for a production concession licence.

For reference the average flow rate for the rharb basin is 1.1 mmcf per day per meter.

Jimmy

Hi Keith,

Great summary.

My guess, is that prd drilled into the Jurassic source rock in mou 4, and found it was at the margin of gas and gas condensate generating, and is now studying the source rock to see where it might be oil bearing.

Drilling up dip from mou 4 will find more gas, but we don’t know the likely thickness of reservoir.

Perhaps the new technical report will inform us better.

Jimmy

MEM

The rns of 30th nov stated,

“ An independent geochemical desk-top study has commenced to assess the potential for mature oil and/or condensate source rocks in the Jurassic in MOU-4.”

We know the mou 4 well found 2 meters of high porosity carbonates at the edge of the prospect of 126km2 .

So if thereis oil/ condensate from the source rocks then it’s at the bottom of the structure , so not sure how you can calculate such high oil reserve potential

Jimmy

I was delighted to read last weeks rns update, particularly the timelines for flow testing.

The rns explained that the log interpretation of gas required validation by flow testing, so we have 150 meters of reservoir with elevated gas readings which need to be flow tested, the first 20 meters of which will be flow tested by way of conventional perforation with an an unspecified reservoir intervals to be flow tested by the long awaited sand jet technology.

We know from the last cpr that seismic identification of reservoirs is limited to approx 1 meter intervals. Furthermore the cpr appeared to show a difference of opinion as to whether the mou fan reservoirs were channel sand rather than a continuous fan deposit. The mou 3 results would indicate that predator are likely to be correct. So it was interesting to read in the rns that prd plan to apply for a concession licence to produce from mou 1 and 3 , provided that reservoir communication between the wells can be demonstrated by the flow testing. So it’s not just the flow testing that’s important but the pressure communication between wells that’s important. If pressure communication cannot be demonstrated then it’s likely that there is some compartmentalisation with minor faults which can be addressed by another well placed in such compartment, assuming the gas water contact can calculated as being distal.

From a flow rate perspective, 150 meters of reservoir , if all such reservoirs was flow tested then flow rates in excess of 150 mmcf per day can be expected, which facilitates early production cashflow generation and planning for gas to power.

We still do not know the potential of the 126 sq km jurrasic carbonates as we do not know what the realistic potential for reservoirs thicker than 2 meters which was found in mou 4. Hopefully the technical report will address this issue.

Jimmy

Hi all

I am not an administer of the chariot telegram group, but I have requested the admin to invite those who want to join from here

Regards

Jimmy

Hi guys

For some unexplainable reason the telegram group disappeared, it’s being re started as

Chariot energy telegram group.

Try logging into that or requesting admittance as previously.

Regards

Jimmy