RE: Share price19 Apr 2024 16:05
Hi surfit.
My answers to your comments as follows.
1. the small amount of cash paid out to aquire i.e, the VERY limited FREE carry: instead we have we have sold for finance ( see 2).
Answer. The initial payment was $10million, but further lump sum payments of $15 million in cash and $50 million of a lone note or 20000 enog shares. Plus the financing of the capex development plus the financing of next well and seismic plus 7% royalty on enog production, market has certainly not grasped that yet.
2. possibley the partner, namely the debt presently carried and the ability to obtain finance...this MAY be a factor?????? Comments???
The partner is uk listed, strong cashflow and balance sheet. The partner has more than enough capability to fund the development including chariots share.
3. potential risk on onshore not being commercial viable I.e.the drilling is to confirm.
Yes, until it’s drilled there is a risk, but drilling Avo anomalies in this basin has an 85% success rate. Drilling up dip from a known discovery mapped with 3D seismic is very low risk indeed, as demonstrated by chariot at anchois 2.
4. Finance required to fund to onshore sale.
Yes, finance required. My understanding is the onshore retail customer avivo, wil provide such funding. In addition there is an opportunity to use spare capacity in the SDX pipeline which they are keen to use.
5. To recive the 15m this requires addtional OFFshore drill with confirmed flow rates (correct/incorrect?).
The additional $15 million is payable on final investment decision , the forthcoming well will include flow testing of multiple reservoirs in order to finalise the well completion design, one does not want a deeper high pressure gas impeding a lower pressure shallower gas horizon, which if confirmed would require separate production tubing.
6. Management realisation (RNS) that the have to sell or finance/ understand revenue return on the South African "renewables" folly.
Certainly the market is giving little to no value for that investment, best if it’s spun out.
7. Hydrogen venture costs/return/ finance.
This is a long term project that costs very little at the moment. Plans to build a small pilot plant are low cost.
8. ONshore success REQUIRED to keep the company liquid to get to OFFshore production.
Given the fact that the anchois 3 well will be drilled in august, I expect FID by q2 next year, which in turn will result in further farm out cash to chariot. Will most likely coincide with start of onshore production.
Just my views.
The key point about chariots farm out is that it effectively removes equity dilution risk which holds back mostjunior explorer valuations.
Jimmy