Member Info for Jimmy23

Discipline,

The Keith explanation of the 12% chance of success was based on an assumption the experts report was prepared before mou4 well results, now that the report is updated the chance of success should have improved but it’s still the same.

In my view flow testing of mou4 carbonates is now becoming important to derisk mou5.

Jimmy

We need to understand why predator assigned a greater than 50% chance of success to flow testing the carbonates to the independant technical expert assigning 12% even though mou 4 is reported to have found gas.

Hopefully a good flow test of the mou4 carbonates will validate predators more optimistic assessment.

Good to get the technical report issued on the website so investors can understand the risk, a 12% chance of success is effectively a high probability of a dry well, not withstanding the high volumetric of nearly 6tcf net to predator.

Jimmy

Older and wiser,

Because the independant technical report has not been published one can only make a best estimate.

Paul previously stated that the reprocessing of seismic was going to lead to an upward revision of gas prospective resources, which has happened, but the independant experts have not changed their assessment of the chance of success, not withstanding the results of mou 4 , so clearly there is a difference of professional opinion, to be resolved by drilling.

Jimmy

Gdrew.

I like the Jurassic carbonate structure as a good exploration play because it’s been partly derisked by mou 4 which demonstrated 2 meters of high porosity reservoir and logged gas, to be validated by flow testing for wireline calibration.

The early jurrasic carbonates have not been drilled previously in Morocco and the shallow depth of the carbonates is likely to increase the probability of karstification to provide porosity and permeability which in turn is likely to be improved by two periods of basin inversion which may improve fracture porosity as the prospect lies adjacent to a major fault. We do not know how laterally extensive high porosity and permeability is at this time. Predator announced they were reprocessing the seismic to identify hydrocarbons via Avo analysis . However the previous independant technical report suggested seismic coverage over the prospect still had large gaps in it, hence the predator view of geological chance of success as better than 50% and the indepentat technical report at 12% .

Only way to proove who is right is first flow test carbonates in mou 4 and then drill mou5.

Appraisal Mary require 3D seismic and multiple appraisal wells , hence the importance of getting to cng production from mou3 to finance this.

Looking forward to flow test results at mou3.

Jimmy

I hope they put the independant technical report on their website as I am pleasantly surprised by the 6tcf net prospective resources. It seems to me that they are attributing a very much thicker sequence of carbonate reservoirs than previously estimated.

I will be interested to learn of the basis of the 12% chance of success as I had expected a lot higher on the basis that mou 4 is reported to have found gas thereby proving, source , migration and top seal, which must leave reservoir conditions as the high risk component.

First step, flow test mou 4 to calibrate the logs and then drill mou 5.

Let’s hope for positive news on mou 3 flow testing,

I am expecting a fundraise to provide predator with financial contingency funding, which is not a problem on the back of a good flow test.

Jimmy

Great to see these photographs of the testing equipment at mou3.

The down hole depth tool looks very clean and the flare stack area does not have any scorch marks and a tanker parked nearby, which I assume is a water tanker, all of which suggest that these pictures were taken at the beginning of perforation and flow testing.

J

Ibiza.

The rns says the sand jet programme has started not that the flow testing has started, so it’s technically correct if equipment has moved on site with a view to flow testing.

I would prefer word on flow testing than news on T and T which seems to me to be more of a bait and switch tactic.

Here is hoping for good news soon,

Jimmy

Interesting that chariots former partner in block 2714 an and b in Namibia have made a bid for for the galp acreage in the adjoining block.

Perhaps Petrobas are to farm into chariots block also.

See.

https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/petrobras-bids-for-mopane-discovery/?cf-view

Jimmy

Forward price of gas in Spain for 2025 increased to $12.40 , great news for gas producers in morroco, just got to get the flow tests positive results.

Jimmy

Forward gas price in Spain for 2025 has risen to $12.40 mcf .

Great news for chariots onshore , just got to flow test it asap

Jimmy

I just hope the flow test results are not announced on Friday.

With so many zones to test there should be at least some zones which flow enough to get into cng production which will finance ongoing drilling

Monday or Tuesday rns are usually good news.

J

Sounds about right,Namibia is the wild card that could surprise to the upside.

J

I had a dream too,

Prd would actually sand jet perforate mou3 reservoirs and the flow test the shallow reservoirs and jurrasic carbonate to validate the nuetech interpretation of the jurrasic gas discovery, all of which would be sufficient to get to cng production which would finance the appraisal drilling of the jurrasic carbonates without ongoing shareholder dilution.

Jimmy

Looks like Stena fort on sea trials outside Las Palmas in the canaries. Should be leaving for anchois in a few days.

Jimmy

Harry.

I disagree.

High flow rates achieved from either of.

1. 150 meters of proven gas in anchois 2 to be flow tested in anchois east, average flow rate in rharb basin is 1.1 mmcf per day per meter , and there is 50 meters in anchois 1 to be redrilled as a producer and the final anchois 3 producer well

2. The o sand with proven gas of 10 meters in anchois 2 with a further 5 meters below the gas water contact , the proven reservoir is expected to be gas bearing in anchois east and its pilot hole into anchois north.

So highly likely to be producing 150 mmcf per day one way or the other, and chariotadvise the increase capex is just 5% for 150 mmcf per day.

Jimmy

KnC.

The future annual cashflow from anchois is $50 million for about three years and $100 million thereafter for 17 years, as per page 6 of the presentation.

The current npv of anchois at a 20% interest is $500 million which will increase to $600 million if the exploration aspect of anchois east works, in addition to the $65 million in upfront cash.

So I think any offer has a long way to go above the current share price.

Jimmy

Chariots acreage in Namibia adjoins that of pancontinental.

From page 19 see giant prospect j which extends into chariots 2714b block.

https://pancon.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Annual-General-Meeting-Presentation-November-2022.pdf

Jimmy

So what depth was mou 4 drilled to and were there fractured or vuggy carbonates below the 2 meter gas zone and if so what thickness of such reservoirs.

Did mou 4 find the gas water contact or theoretically a gas to gas condensate/ oil contact .flow testing of mou 4 will inform a great deal.

Still waiting patiently.

J

Keith.

We know the what if scenario regarding the Jurassic carbonate prospect because the rns update stated that seismic had been reprocessed over the prospect and Avo analysis was being used to re evaluate the prospect porosity and permeability in the carbonates. Predator expect a material upgrading of prospect reserves as a consequence.

However, I view the flow rate of the carbonates in mou4 as of greater importance to confirm its gas and flow rate and to recalibrate the log interpretations.

The new Avo analysis is till going to require confirmation by widespread drilling and flow testing.lots to look forward to.

The seismic coverage of mou5 prospect may need infill coverage at a later stage.

Jimmy

Sefton,

Such nonsense.

I am invested in predator and chariot and hope for positive outcomes in both.

If you disagree with my post then post then kindly post why you disagree based on the technical information released by predator.

I am not part of the irrational exuberance brigade of predator investors who believe super giant discoveries without presenting credible evidence to support such views.

My short term hope is that predator get to cng production from mou 3 asap to avoid the an ongoing pump and dump equity dilution.

Jimmy