Member Info for Jimmy23

Foot and mouth.

May I suggest that if you are GRH wish to comment on chariot you do so on the chariot LSE site.

I am looking forward to the mou 3 and mou 4 flow test results and a positive re rating of predators shares as a consequence.

Not sure why so many on this board are distracted by chariot, there is plenty of gas market in morroco for all.

Let’s hope pg can secure a rig soon, after flow test of the jurrasic in mou4 which if successful would justify a substantial re rating of mou 5 from the indepdant expert rating of 12 % chance of success to that rate of in excess of 50% rated by predator, an important difference.

Jimmy

Surety,

Firstly , I am shocked that the share price is now less than when chariot drilled anchois 2.

I don’t think it’s being managed to stay low, j

It’s a combination of poor financial management resulting in emergency funding rounds,in my view, combined with poor market sentiment for oil and gas . Take energean paying a great dividend, strong assets and production and valued at a 10% dividend yield.

I previously posted that if 40% of chariots free cashflow from anchois was paid as a dividend the dividend yield would currently be approx 20 % dividend yield during the anchois capex payback period, rising to nearly 40% dividend yield after the payback period . So that kind of cashflow would definitely support a leveraged buy out. Obviously Fid is a pre requisite . Long term holders would likely prefer to receive the dividend, but it will certainly temp some to make a bid if these low prices prevail.

It’s such a pity that chariot have been so late in day to focus in getting to production cashflow breakeven.

Jimmy

Minnie.

I am invested in predator and it’s a pity that you resort to fantasy conspiracy theories instead of addressing the point as to why predator are not mentioned in an article about high potential gas in Morocco.

Mou 5 at 5 tcf would dwarf all other projects in Morocco combined and yet no mention by its partner onhym.

Perhaps you can explain.

Jimmy

I wonder why guercif and mou3 flow testing was not mentioned in the article below in Morocco.

Jimmy

https://www.atalayar.com/en/articulo/economy-and-business/morocco-moves-towards-energy-self-sufficiency-with-new-gas-projects/20240826141145204506.html

Enog, are the legal operator of the well drilling, they know what’s happening by the minute.

J

I would say the A sands have been encountered and are full of gas as it’s updip from anchois2.

I suspect casing will now be set and then it’s down to the other sands and the M and O sands north of the fault, I expect it take another week then wireline logging.

Watch enog share price.

Jimmy

Should read slim hole.

Nigel,

Mou 1 has been suspended and has not been successfully perforated in three years now, so it’s distinct possibility that the sand jet perforation would not work after so long, hopefully not the same problems with mou 3 and mou4 as they are more recent.

Interesting how predator and chariot are taking different approaches to risk and challenges of drilling into thin sands with high porosity and permeability, chariot opting to first drill with a ski hole thereby reducing mud weight, reducing well costs , but validating gas presence and wireline logs, and if successful just drill a second slim hole for production. Whereas predator use a standard hole with overpressurized mud to control the well, and perforate with sand jet.

We will know from each company if their techniques work soon enough.

Jimmy

Ijt.

The previous perforation were performed with coil tubing also, so perhaps not the extra time you suggested.

Fingers crossed.

Jimmy

Thanks Keith that’s re assuring that mou4 will be flow tested in the jurrasic as it will calibrate the wireline logs and substantially de risk mou5.

If mou 4 is successfully flow tested in the jurrasic then the big question is how thick and laterally continuous are te high porosity and permeability jurrasic carbonate reservoirs. Got to drill to find out. First step flow test mou4.

With regard to flow testing mou3 it’s worth noting that the unsuccessful flow testing by explosive perforation took 6 days to report.

As we commenced flow test operations on 6th august, it would suggest its been worthwhile flow testing. Fingers crossed.

Jimmy

Keith.

Thank you for your summary.

Am I reading the 8th august rns that flow testing of mou4 will not now occur till after the drilling of mou5, or is it just that the testing of mou 4 for helium will occur after the mou5 well.

J

I think it’s a little too early for the A sands , perhaps by early next week.

J

Keith,

I used the nasa fire detection satellite at

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:24hrs;@-3.96,34.46,11.00z

And could not see a fire detected at the mou3 location yet.

Jimmy

Hi fernan.

That study is very relevant, however the reservoirs and basin offshore are part of the rharb basin, but the reservoir sands were deposited as thick turbidite sands offshore , usually high porosity and permeability , compared to onshore which have a lower net to gross sand ratio and very thinner sands, so they should be better offshore flow rates than onshore. My calculations used a conservative flow rate per meter onshore applied to offshore thick reservoirs.

All looking good.

Jimmy

Legalwolf,

Chariot have not announced the flow test intervals.

The purpose of the flow tests is to identify those reservoirs with different pressure regimes so that they can be completed for production seperately and hence not have any interference between different reservoirs. Ideally they would flow test all horizons, but they have pressure data on all of them already so it’s possible that they only flow test those zones where the data is unclear.

In any event, expect more than 50 mmcf per day from anchois 3.

Jimmy

Hi fernan,

We do not know the number of reservoirs to be flow tested. However we do know that there are 150 meters of net pay in anchois 2 plus a further 10 meters in the O sand in anchois 2 which has a shallow gas water contact in a reservoir over 50 meters .

The average flow rate per meter of net sand in the onshore rharb basin is 1.1mmc f per day per meter of net pay, so. Yes assuming they test more than 50 meters they should get more than 50 mmcf per day, but could be a lot higher.

Jimmy

Harry,

When you apply for an exploration licence in Africa, it’s common practice to be required to post a bank guarantee for the work programme, this is usually cash backed with a bank, hence the need for funding , in order to acquire a licence with multi billion bbl prospects in Namibia which has an exploration success rate of 80%.

While I did not like the dilution, the award of such a licence could be transformative. And well worth the dilution.

Jimmy

Jazzer,

Ap and chariot have indicated that they intend to use the ebitda profits from anchois to return funds to shareholders.

We know from the the chariot presentation that the first 12 months of production will yield $50 million in ebitda for about three years when it will rise to $100 million p.a for another 13 years or so.

If they pay out 40% of ebitda as a dividend , then the dividend would currently be 20% p.a for the first three years rising to 40% dividend yield based on current share price.

Very nice for those who are not risk averse and can take a long view.

Still holding.

Jimmy

Brv,

The market cap breakeven flow rate of 4 to 8 mmcf per day is why I invested, which I expect to to be comfortably exceeded so that we can progress asap to production funded appraisal drilling without ongoing pump and dump equity dilutions.

I still like mou 5 as an exploration target which will be greatly de risked if mou4 jurrasic flows gas and indeed finds the gas water or gas condensate contact points.

Jimmy

Ianfer,

It will take about 3 weeks to drill log and sample the pilot hole on the far side of the east fault, then rns, followed by 5 weeks to drill , log and flow test the. Main anchois east well.

Final development decision h1 2025, first production cashflow 2027, starting at $50 million net to chariot for 2 .5 years followed by $100 million for 12 years.

Chariot is not even valued at a full year ebitda after payback.

Extraordinary really.

Jimmy