Member Info for Jimmy23

Andy,

Untrue.

My comments about predator having potential gas to spill point could not be considered negative.

I have criticised chariot on a number of occasions, same for predator, for not getting into production cashflow asap.

J

Minnie,

There is a gas cloud in the seismic to the east of mou 2 which is indicative of gas having escaped the reservoir structures. It is suspected that this arises from basin inversion which leads to gas expansion and hence gas escape at the structural spill points. We do not know if there are gas water contacts but the independant technical reports seem to suggest gas filled to spill points as evidenced by the seismic avo. First got to flow test then drill again to prove the gas down to levels.

Yes, mou 1 fan was reported to have high pressures but we do not have the details. No reports of high gas readings in the mou fan in mou2 and no wire line logs, so this remains to be checked out.

Jimmy

They guided two months to drill and test which is mid or end October.

Harry,

Chariot stated rig mobilisation in august, what evidence do you have that it’s November?

Jimmy

Bobsled.

Just to clarify some of your points.

1. The gas discovered to date in mou1 3 and 4 requires to be validated by flow testing, which more than 3 years after mou1 was drilled is now about to happen.

2.mou 2 has been suspended, and predator report that it did indeed drill through the mou fan reservoir. They did not confirm gas discovery in that reservoir as the reservoir could not be wire line logged.

3.it appears that there are 160 meters of reservoir in mou 1, 3 and 4 which are “most likely gas” but I understand that’s it’s the shallow gas encountered in mou 3, and not wire line logged , which was overpressurised. Very importantly we do not know if the high gas saturation in the 2 meters in the jurrasic carbonates in mou4 were overpressurised. I suspect not, as the independant technical expert update on the mou 4 and 5 jurrasic carbonate prospect is assigning it a 12% chance of success of flowing gas to surface, which I suspect would not be the case if it was overpressurised. Flow testing of mou4 will resolve this important issue.

4. We simply do not know if all reservoirs in all the horizons are connected as the flow rate data will provide that information. However, many of the reservoirs are particularly thin and hence susceptible to minor fault compartmentalisation, which can be solved by a higher number of production wells to drain the acreage. Hence the importance of getting to initial production for cng to finance ongoing appraisal wells.

5.correct, no debt.

6.mou 3 does not have a possible 6tcf of gas, it’s mou4 and 5 jurrasic prospect with a 12% chance of success.

7.the team are now focussed on execution, but it’s taken over two years and two equity dilutions to get here. Looking forward to the flow test results. There is no gas sales agreement in place, there is a memorandum of understanding to negotiate one with an exclusivity period that ends in November 2024.

8.full field equity is currently at 75% is correct, but the intention is to farm down, which will provide a third party valuation validation.

9.no narrative mentioned for 9.

10. The main gas pipeline to power stations in morroco and Spain passes through predator acreage, its approx 4km from the mou5 drill location.

11. $ billions are potentially here , subject to flow testing, farm down equity % and final Fid approval by govt. that’s why most are invested here, including me.

12.testing has started, critical to validate geological model.

13.cng feasability study completed, this is vital to get to cashflow asap and fund ongoing appraisal without ongoing equity dilution.

14. I hope too hope we will all be very happy, it’s been a longer journey to get here than I expected.

Jimmy

Chariot general meeting to morrow to approve recent fundraising.

Interestingly, the Namibian ministry of mines and energy have removed the Namibian exploration licence map from its website, to be replaced shortly.

Could they announce new Namibian licence to morrow morning for the general meeting?

Jimmy

Nice to see the open offer hugely oversubscribed.

Just got to the flow test results now and go for production cashflow asap.

J

I believe pg to be a talented geophysicists and I know that many here do not accept any criticism of him, but the facts remain that other companies operating onshore Morocco have not taken the amount of time from discovery to flow test that prd has taken, and it seems to me that prd have a particularly hard time getting regulatory approvals in a timely manner. I do not believe that lonny had such problems in his previous employment in morroco.

I invested on the basis of sand jet perforation for flow testing which would validate the nuetech log interpretation and have experienced two equity dilutions since then and still patiently waiting for flow testing two years later.

Of course logistical problems occur and other companies manage to deal with them. Yes Covid made life difficult for a while but chariot drilled a well offshore during a complete lock down , on time and under budget.

In my opinion, there have been professional differences of opinion between predator and its independant technical experts regarding the interpretation of well results in morocco and the prospectivity of its exploration, the proof as to who is right will be in the sand jet perforation .

flow test results.

Thank god the sand jet perforation has finally started and we can see what the prospect of positive cashflow is before we go elephant hunting.

Jimmy

King Billy,

I just hate poorly researched commentary, not my usual style of reply and thanks for your comments.

Yes, I am very disappointed by the share price which has not been helped by dilution in the last 18 months, but the fundamentals look very strong.

I believe chariot now understand the need to get to positive cashflow asap and have taken steps to achieve this.

Jimmy

Harry,

Do you know the average flow rate per meter of reservoir in the rhab basin, and you say it’s a dud, so why are they going to flow test and why did vivo sign a joint venture to sell the onshore production, obviously a giant oil company who specialize in gas production in Morocco does not know as much as you do.

With regard to offshore, not sure you have read the terms of the farm out deal , and by the way energean have sold their assets in Italy and Egypt to focus on the rapid development of the offshore moroccon assets they farmed into with. Chariot, then again you obviously know more about the Morocco offshore gas than they do,

Clearly, chariot is not an investment for you.

Jimmy

Ibiza.

For a high volume discovery the offtake is likely to be gas to power which has a lower price so the npv price is likely to be at the $1 b per tcf in terms of npv value. But as Keith suggested depending on how “proven” the volumes are the farm in value ranges from 25% to 50% of the npv value.

Jimmy

I appreciate that we all like to dream, myself included, but we need good flow tests to validate the geological model and the nuetech log interpretations which are reported as “likely gas” , so it’s not proven till it flows.

With regard to a farm out, if mou4 flow testing and mou5 work and flow a farm out for a ten well carry and 3D seismic would cost circa $50 million and resolve the uncertainties necessary to get to Fid for the mou fan and jurrasic with the remainder of development capex funded by project debt.

So it’s very doable, and will provide a third party value validation, which in turn will be attributed to the share price.

Just dreaming , like so many here.

Looking forward to the flow test results

Jimmy

Yes, looking for a good flow test of jurrasic carbonates in mou4.

J

Indeed basin inversion may be an important contributor of fracture porosity in the jurrasic carbonates to be tested by mou5. The big risk of basin inversion is top seal leakage , however mou4 found 175 meters of mudstone above the 2 meters of jurrasic carbonates, so potentially a good seal during basin inversions.

However, it seems to me there are only 6 seismic lines over the jurrasic prospect so it’s more deficit to determine if the top seal is present over all of the prospect.

That’s why a positive flow test of the jurrasic carbonates in mou4 is so important to derisk mou5 as it would prove source, migration and top seal for the structure as well as local porosity and permeability, so hopefully not much more of a wait.

Jimmy

Keith,

Thanks for your comments.

Do you know if the mou 4 jurrasic carbonates were overpressurised and what kind of % gas show was in the mud logs.

J

Smyth.

Yes of course prices change continously, but the average forward price for 2025 usually changes by only a small amount, hence the significance of the move up.

Jimmy

Good summary Keith.

I do not understand why the independant technical report are assigning a 12% chance of gas flowing to surface for the jurrasic carbonates , which is analysed on page 44 of the January 24 technical report , when in fact mou 4 is reported to have found both reservoir and gas in the carbonates, which should have substantially derisked the prospect .

Is there a diffference of opinion between scorpion independant experts view of the logs of mou4 2 meters of jurrasic carbonate gas and the predator interpretation ?

The scorpion risk rating does not seem to make sense.

Jimmy

Mk111,

I am delighted the share price has increased. I last topped up at 11p so nearly got to breakeven , but still waiting patiently on sand jet perforation, it’s been very much longer than

I expected.

Jimmy

Forward price of gas in Spain for 2025 now $13.12 mcf

Just got to flow test.

Jimmy

Forward price of gas in Spain for 2025 now $13.12 mcf

Just got to flow test.

Jimmy