Member Info for Jimmy23

Hi fernan

Can you tell me exactly what the ceo of energean said regarding gas volumes.

I heard, gas volumes not the problem, it’s getting the gas price agreed with moroccon state is the issue.

J

Lancy,

Let’s see which company in Morocco announces high flow rates first, it’s not a one horse race.

Plenty of demand for gas in Morocco and Spain for all producers.

J

Surety.

The north flank O sand is still a valid exploration target, it’s in a seperate fault block from the O sand drilled by anchois 2 , but it’s below the anchois 2 O sand gas water contact, so it needs good sealing rocks around it. The evidence is that these sealing rock are very good , but got to drill to proove it.

The key issue is actually the flow rate from the proven gas reservoirs , need circa 50 mmcf from 150 meters of reservoir, very doable which would fully justify the brokers targets of 40p a share.

Jimmy

I have been looking at the geological cross section and if the o sand in the footwall was slightly deeper than forecast the gas in the O sand footwall would have crossed the fault and charged the C and M sands in the main reservoir with gas. It would then be water bearing in the footwall O sand.

Jimmy

This is how the locals view it.

https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2024/09/365110/chariot-limited-confirms-gas-discoveries-in-morocco-s-offshore-anchois-project

Jimmy

Surety,

They have just drilled the B sands in the anchois field and they are reported as gas bearing. They will drill for another week or so and then log, and then prepare for flow testing of the proven gas. If we see combined flow rates of better than 50 mmcf per day, then the upside daily production of 150 mmcf per day is likely, and that is a huge cash generator.

I expect we will comfortably exceed that daily flow rate, based on proven gas to date.

Jimmy

There are three sands in the B sand package, the rns stated.

“Preliminary interpretation indicates the presence of gas bearing reservoirs in the B sands, being an appraisal objective of the well and further detailed work will be needed to understand the impact of these results. Drilling operations continue to evaluate deeper appraisal and exploration objectives.”

The significance of this is that there is only a small distance between each of the b sands and we know they have seperate gas water contacts, so the thin sealing rock between the reservoirs is working to contain the gas. That bodes well for the deeper drilling objectives.

Jimmy

Surety,

I do not see risk to the current base case volumes of 635 bcf, it’s been independly validated by netherland Sewell and by farm in by energean.

The key issue is the flow rates need to be around 50 mmcf per day from 150 meters of reservoir.

The forward gas price in Spain, from where gas is imported is $12.5 mcf, so this project is still a very strong cash generator .

Jimmy

Disappointing that some of the upside is gone.

Remember , the key objective of the well is to flow test the proven 150 meters of reservoir found in anchois 2, from which gas samples were recovered.

The key objective is to flow enough gas to justify a 150 mmcf per day development from 3 wells , ,so 50 mmcf is needed. If 150 meters was found onshore in the same basin it would flow at an average 160 mmcf per day.

So it’s a low target that’s needed for high volume production and to be a substantial cash generator for chariot. The capex financed by energean.

Market reaction is an opportunity.

Jimmy

I am still here and obviously disappointed in chariots announcement that one part of three of its objectives in the current well has failed. The one that failed had a chance of success of circa 50% , and that’s exploration.

The main objective is to flow test it’s proven gas reservoirs of 150 meters found at at anchois2, it needs to be circa 50 mmcf per day to achieve the higher production volumes planned for development of 3x producers.so that’s still game on.

Patiently waiting for predators flow test results.

The only thing that’s common is that both predator and chariot report that wireline logs can take several weeks k to interpret correctly.

Jimmy

Energean release their h 1 2024 results on 11 September, so we could get an update sooner than some think.

Jimmy

Zehra,

They spent over a week logging and sampling anchois 2 before announcing the results, which have to be approved by onhym before issue. I expect the same this time also.

The electric logs are difficult to interpret and for anchois 2 they were revised from 100 meters to 150 meters of net reservoir about a month later, so it’s likely to be a preliminary assessment first.

Jimmy

The current demand for gas in morroco is 110 mmcf per day and currently less than 10 mmcf per day is produced locally.

If plans for the conversion of certain power stations progress then demand will increase to circa250 mmcf per day, with any surplus gas then available for export to Spain via the inter connector likely to handle another 250 mmcf per day.

To suggest that there is not enough gas demand for all the explorers of gas in Morocco is complete rubbish.

With regard to the capex to develop such gas discoveries , chariot has secured the finance for its anchois field.

I am looking forward to predator flowing high volumes of gas sufficient for power generation, but investors should perhaps look at predators costings for capex for gas to power development if they think it’s low cost. A nice problem to have which I hope predator have such a challenge.

Jimmy

Predator did say that one of the purposes of sand jet perforation and flow testing of the jurrasic carbonates in mou4 was to calibrate the wireline logs ahead of drilling the jurrasic carbonates in mou5 .

I would not want mou5 drilled before mou4 flow testing as the log calibration would not have occurred, waste of money.

I do expect a fundraise before mou5 drillling.

Jimmy

Yes, that’s the plan.

J

The flow testing of mou4 is scheduled to occur after mou3 , so probably in September.

The reserve estimates for mou5 jurrasic prospect have most recently been reported as 4.9 tcf net to predator, but with a 12% chance of success reported by independant expert compared to greater than 50% by predator previously.

Hence the flow testing of mou4 becomes important ahead of drilling mou5.

The big uncertainty to resolve after successful flow testing of mou4 is how thick the reservoir quality carbonates are up dip and how laterally extensive.

Got to drill to find out.

Jimmy

My guess is that the pilot hole has been drilled and log results issued this week.

Jimmy

Cyberton.

Mou4 is reported. To have found 2 meters of gas in the jurrasic carbonates, downdip from mou5.

To be validated by flow testing mou4.

That is a big deal if it flows gas, as it validates gas source, gas migration and top seal.

It’s important.

Jimmy

I am looking for at least 20 mmcf per day from mou3.

Any gas at 1 to 2 mmcf per day from jurrasic carbonatesin mou4 would be a huge success.

Failure at mou4 would be a set back, which I am not expecting.

Jimmy

Foot and mouth.

May I suggest that if you are GRH wish to comment on chariot you do so on the chariot LSE site.

I am looking forward to the mou 3 and mou 4 flow test results and a positive re rating of predators shares as a consequence.

Not sure why so many on this board are distracted by chariot, there is plenty of gas market in morroco for all.

Let’s hope pg can secure a rig soon, after flow test of the jurrasic in mou4 which if successful would justify a substantial re rating of mou 5 from the indepdant expert rating of 12 % chance of success to that rate of in excess of 50% rated by predator, an important difference.

Jimmy