Member Info for Jimmy23

On 2nd October the predator rns stated that options were issued and would vest as follows.

“ 1,000,000 share options will vest immediately and the remaining 2,000,000 share options will vest either after 3 months; or upon the first gas flow rate from the MOU-3 well in the Guercif Licence; or when production from the Cory Moruga Exploration and Production Licence reaches 100 barrels of oil per day, whichever occurs first.”

Its clear to me that a first gas flow rate had not occurred by 2nd October.

Jimmy

Foot and mouth.

It’s my view, and others may have a different view, that mou 3 has not yet flowed, as chairman’s options vest when it does, that the appointment of flow experts is to fix the problem.

My suspicion, is that they are assessing whether sand jet can perforate the shallow reservoirs or if a new well is needed.

As a contingency, drill mou5 to have high shareholder impact and raise new equity.

Other no doubt have other views .

Jimmy

It’s prd,

The flow testing is critical, because the previously reported contingent reserves were subject to confirmation by flow testing.

Jimmy

That’s a super boooooom close.

Jimmy

Hi Norseman.

A good review carried out in 2018, when the geological chance of success was5%, more recently these fan deposits in the orange basin have had an 80% success rate.

Let’s hope chariot get the licence soon.

Jimmy

Keith,

Why did oak, decide to use the 12% chance of success in its report instead of the predator 50% rate, if there was additional data to support the 50% chance of success they should have been comfortable about using it, indeed the oak report did not mention the mou 4 carbonates and the 2 meters of gas reported therein, yet that should be a key de risking piece of data and it’s not mentioned. Also there is no mention of flow testing mou4 as planned and announced by predator in august.

J

Old slow,

Do you think prd should should flow test the mou4 carbonates before drilling mou5 to de risk the prospect at the lowest cost and calibrate the wireline logs in the carbonates , as previously planned by predator.

J

Ccc.

It appears that gas has not flowed yet from testing at mou3, and the rns says that.

I appreciate that investors very much want to see a great flow rate and I had expected to see flow rates of circa 20 mmcf per day, but clearly has not happened yet .

You are shooting the messenger.

J

Munnie,

I find it hard to believe that if gas flowed it was not measured, as you seem to suggest.

Jimmy

It just says, first flow of gas, not that it must be stabilised, so it seems like a first flow has yet to occur after 6 weeks, so certainly more difficult than expected.

Jimmy

The share options issued yesterday will vest as follows.

1,000,000 share options will vest immediately and the remaining 2,000,000 share options will vest either after 3 months; or upon the first gas flow rate from the MOU-3 well in the Guercif Licence; or when production from the Cory Moruga Exploration and Production Licence reaches 100 barrels of oil per day, whichever occurs first.“

Seems to me that mou3 has not yet flowed gas then.

Jimmy

Keith,

Good summary.

The note says mou5 is a high risk well, so why don’t they flow test carbonates in mou 4,to de risk it.

J

Another 3 months to re analyse and come up with a plan.

My guess, is, secure good gas price and drill anchois west.

Jimmy

Cyberton,

The mou 5 well is not a legal commitment to drill , it’s discretionary at this time. Hence the rns statement is true.

J

Petrobas used to have an interest in block 2714 with chariot that found very thick source rocks

Maybe that might farm in again.

J

The lapse of the former director options, suggests to me it was not an easy departure.

J

There is a pot of $85 million to get to Fid , and only a small amount spent so far, the logical thing for a partner in a licence with prospects of more than 10 tcf, is evaluate the data fully and see which prospects are still good or indeed have got better.

Energean are not going to find another basin like this on europes door step with a pipeline to Europe.

I am patiently waiting

Jimmy

Bowsled,

Thank you for you observations regarding probability of success..

I like the mou 5 prospect because it’s up dip from the mou 4 carbonate reservoirs which were reported as gas bearing.

The independant expert assigned a 12% chance of success and predator say it’s 50% .

The only explanations I can think of o is that there is a difference of view that mou 4 carbonates found gas or not.

There is also the possibility that there are only 6 seismic lines over such a huge prospect.

How would you view the chance of success probabilities in this situation.

Jimmy

Donal.

There are only six seismic lines over titanasorous, and I suspect the uncertainty in the risk factor is whether the porosity and permeability are widespread.

Previous experts reports indicated a wide range of recovery factors due to uncertainty on fracture permeability being widespread.

Flow testing , previously announced for mou 4was to calibrate the wireline logs ahead of mou5 drilling and in my opinion substantially de risk the 12% chance of success as reported by the experts report.

Flow testing mou4 would also inform the helium content in a more reliable way.

Jimm

Did predator sample the gas in the carbonates at mou4 and establish what the helium content was.

Surely, that would be more relevant than using a global average statistic.

Jimmy