Member Info for jimb2

@smrrty

practically every economist have said the tariffs Trump has talked about will put the US into a historic recession, if Trump wins the fact we are holding losses in KDNC will likely be dwarfed by the chaos it will bring globally.

IMHO

From the horses mouth:

Trump Mexican factories

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kW7ALO4ZwHA&t=690s

@Witty,

not just them, if the vote goes against Trump we should see announcements from many others needing local produced lithium:

Is this a sign!

Kamala Harris visiting Bacanora today!!

https://youtu.be/XP3QSD_kHQE?si=fRBLvwbaSqh5vWnp&t=4

Interesting interview with Marcelo Ebrard:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-10-25/how-the-us-election-could-impact-its-relationship-with-mexico?srnd=phx-technology

Seems to me they realise they have to undo some of A_L.O's restrictive policies

Another big lithium move:

https://www.mining.com/web/eramet-takes-full-control-of-lithium-project-from-chinas-tsingshan/

Eramet has bought out Chinese partner Tsingshan in a lithium project in Argentina that is about to begin production, the French miner said on Thursday.

Eramet used available liquidity for the $699 million purchase of Tsingshan’s 49.9% stake, it said.

Ganfeng's solid state battery JV partner is making big inroads into Mexico, they are China's fourth largest auto maker, looks like another timely announcement post election:

San Luis Potosí is in the final stretch to become the headquarters of the new Changan Motors assembly plant, next to the state of Guanajuato.

Changan's final decision will be announced in November 2024, but the outlook for San Luis Potosí is highly favorable. The state has demonstrated that it has the key elements to attract investments of this magnitude: world-class infrastructure, a highly trained workforce, a strategic location that connects the north and center of the country, and ample availability of land for large projects

https://cnevpost.com/2023/12/26/changan-ganfeng-plan-jv-solid-state-batteries/

The two sides will establish a joint venture company based on equal shareholdings to accelerate solid-state battery research, development and manufacturing, according to the announcement.

Mexico would be a great base for them:

Based on cooperation in next-generation solid-state battery technology, Changan and Ganfeng will also explore cooperation in areas including lithium mining resources, lithium processing, battery materials, and recycling of used batteries, the announcement said.

Coincidently, all three mining, processing and recycling were planned for Sonora, I've always favoured Sonora to produce lithium metal for its high grade low impurity capability.

And Ford:

https://fordauthority.com/2024/06/changan-ford-ford-mexico-work-together-to-boost-production/

The possibilities if Ganfeng came to an agreement are probably well beyond anything that might have been classed as a ramp in 2019, there must be an urgency in Mexico for lithium production today not in ten years.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the interested parties looking at Amapa are holding back for the US elections, it was mentioned that if they could produce green ore then the US would be a potential destination.

Questions being asked,

https://sonorapresente.com/2024/10/el-adios-al-litio-de-sonora-y-litiomx/

Indeed @EV_Bull,

looking back at the history of Thacker Pass - Ganfeng developing Sonora and funding it themselves!

Then adding a battery factory and possibly recycling - who else would be prepared to take on a development!

Not forgetting A_L.O did have one last attempt back in June, I doubt Ganfeng were prepared to budge!

Mexico seeks deal with Ganfeng Lithium over canceled mining concessions

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/business/mexico-deal-ganfeng-lithium-canceled-mining-concessions/

Also Ganfeng/BCN dispute also covers the same BIT we are challenging with, they are challenging both:

BIT China - Mexico 2008, BIT United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland - Mexico 2006

Yes @Witty

The open pit ban was the big issue I had in mind, perhaps it was A_L.O's attempt to pressurise Ganfeng into a deal!

Just worth remembering even Thacker Pass is not producing and has had big loan offered as well as big bucks from GM now at $864M

March 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. Department of Energy plans to lend Lithium Americas (LAC.TO), opens new tab up to $2.26 billion to build Nevada's Thacker Pass lithium project, one of Washington's largest investments to date in the mining industry as part of a push to boost domestic production of critical minerals for the energy transition.

https://electricautonomy.ca/ev-supply-chain/2024-10-22/gm-lithium-americas-thacker-pass-canada/

Plus we now have the Mexican government offering tax incentives for investments in Sonora, is Ganfeng the best way forward ? - I'll stick with my view that the US election will have a part to play - Trump has said from day one he will reverse the inflation reduction and place 200% plus tariffs on Mexican produced EV's.

Could also be pressure from the US against Chinese producing in Mexico - that may be less a concern with the recent comments:

The approach towards Chinese auto-makers marks a possible shift from the previous government of former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, with Reuters reporting in April that officials had said they would not give local incentives such as low-cost public land or tax cuts to Chinese automakers due to pressure from the United States.

I wonder what any reversal will do to the SP?

Https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/sonoro-gold-near-term-gold-producer-positioned-to-benefit-from-mexicos-improving-mining-climate

? is this correct!

Recent political changes in Mexico, particularly new President Claudia Sheinbaum's removal of potential open-pit mining ban from policy agenda, create an improved investment climate.

I'm a little encouraged by this:

The approach towards Chinese auto-makers marks a possible shift from the previous government of former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, with Reuters reporting in April that officials had said they would not give local incentives such as low-cost public land or tax cuts to Chinese automakers due to pressure from the United States.

Just three weeks into her term:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/mexicos-new-government-mulls-tax-incentives-lure-foreign-companies-2024-10-21/

Mexico would continue to prioritize the U.S. and Canada due to their strategic alliance through USMCA, but that didn't imply Mexico would "break with China" or "deny them investments in Mexico," Gutierrez said.

Stats

https://icsid.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/publications/2024-2%20ENG%20-%20The%20ICSID%20Caseload%20Statistics%20%28Issue%202024-2%29.pdf

Chart 9 page 11 - 59% of cases are BIT's

Chart 17 page 16 53% of cases upheld in 2024

Chart 19 page 17 47% Proceeding discontinued at the request of both parties in 2024 51% all time

In order to strengthen the 'Sonora Sustainable Energy Plan' and encourage the arrival of new investments to the entity, the governor, Alfonso Durazo Montaño , and the president Claudia Sheinbaum are working together on a strategy to facilitate tax incentives.

https://www.milenio.com/estados/sonora-impulsa-su-plan-de-energias-sostenibles-con-apoyo-federal

EV's are disrupting a big increase in sales recently.

FM:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQFPeP9NsBk

it was the right thing for the company to do - its therefore done!

Shares of Lithium Americas (LAC) skyrocketed Wednesday after the mining company announced the creation of a joint venture with General Motors (GM) to extract lithium, the element used in electric vehicle (EV) batteries, from a key Nevada mine

Yes looks positive @Bannor,

Now will the Mexican gov do the sensible thing?

Last week, Sheinbaum announced that a Mexican automaker would build a low-cost EV known as Olinia, which is the Náhuatl phrase meaning “to move.” She also spoke of bolstering the domestic supply chain — a hot topic elsewhere in North America as well. “We are going to generate supply chains so that everything that is in the electric car is manufactured in the country and we import as little as possible,” she said in Friday’s speech.

Realistically in her 6 year term would lithium production and battery manufacturing be achievable?

Https://www.swissarbitration.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Pierre-Mayer.pdf

Internationally recognised for his competence, extensive experience and intellectual honesty, Professor Pierre Mayer is considered one of the few great names of international arbitration. He now acts mainly as an arbitrator, in both commercial and investment arbitration procedures.

He is a specialist in international arbitration law and private international law, two subjects which he has taught for decades at the University of Paris I (Panthéon-Sorbonne) where he was a professor from 1984 to 2012 and has been an emeritus professor since 2012. Prior to setting up his own office, Professor Pierre Mayer practiced with Coudert Brothers, Clifford

Chance and Dechert, where he was a partner for 10 years.

Intriguing----

ICSID ---

October 14, 2024 - Following appointment by the Respondent, Pierre Mayer (French) accepts his appointment as arbitrator.

National Geological Service Director Flor de Maria Harp said late on Monday that the average amount of lithium found in samples reported by Bacanora Lithium, or about 3,415 parts per million (ppm), exceed typical concentrations found elsewhere in Mexico's mostly clay-based lithium deposits.

If I recall the lab had limits to the upper limits they could test to that BCN used.

@Dallasdaz,

Obviously...you didn't even know it had gone lol.

I do recall you making that point a while ago.

When you consider the potential for the Sonora clays you have to wonder why the Mexican gov didn't let Ganfeng go ahead and prove the clays could produce economically and have thriving mining and battery industry - I think $80,000 /t to A_L.O was the reason after his total failure with Pemex $80bn bailout during his term and a reduction in output.