Member Info for jimb2

Great expectations, I wonder what the bod are contemplating if a buyout is on the table, could there be a dividend built in to the LOM?

My speculative view on Ganfeng and the Mex gov take a little positive development:

https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/sheinbaum-announces-review-of-mexicos-bill-to-ban-open-pit-mining

“In the case of open-pit mining, it's also important to review it because sand mines that make cement are open-pit mines, and the lithium we're very interested in producing is also open-pit mining, so we need to review the specifics of how the constitutional reform turned out,” the president said during her Friday press conference.

You can spell it out all day long @Struv5 but if it's factually wrong and given that this has been pointed out to you then perhaps you shouldn't bother.

KM stated they are laser focused on hitting all the targets by year end with construction starting beginning of 2025:

I would recommend listening to the words from KM.

https://youtu.be/5DTCChBU_fA?si=mr5zTtXw2JuWSgoe&t=853

And some facts:

The month of December has the highest number of acquisitions over the year, Monday is the day when most are announced known as merger Monday.

I would imagine some companies want good news for their shareholders/stakeholders to be included in the current year.

@Struv5

Speculation meaning

Cambridge English dictionary:

to form opinions about something without having the necessary information or facts

I think I'm more inclined to agree with tomcat-14 and the CEO, I don't see this as speculation if the company have published their intent as well as stated in interviews.

tomcat-14 Premium Member

Posts: 8,277

Price: 2.50

Strong Buy

RE: Investor Presentation Dec24…6 Dec 2024 10:43

I wouldn’t call that speculation and definitely not wild… it’s in the rns…

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/KDNC/interim-results-n0j1lv5uue5lxid.html …

The immediate focus of the Amapá Project is financing the next stage of development, a goal to which all the partners are fully dedicated. We believe this should be done via a trade sale or a joint venture with a highly experienced mining operator…

We are actively working towards this goal and are currently discussing with potential joint venture partners. These processes take time with extensive due diligence and contract negotiations, and we know that shareholders want to be informed about the detailed progress; however, for commercial reasons and listing rule requirements, we will only announce once a material contract has been executed…

Now I do expect the Mexican government will come to an agreement with Ganfeng over the concessions but don't invest on my view just treat it as speculation.

Is a JV buyout or sale speculation?

Recent price action, I don't care much to be honest I'm here for the sale or JV announcement, 10 bagger at minimum.

@Struv5 JV or buyout is not speculation, it's part of talks that go back beyond March as has been communicated clearly.

How you missed this considering the posts over the last few days have provided plenty of detail.

What?

This will go up when you least expect it?

I'll go for December 2024 / January 2025, simply when I least expect it I won't be holding!

Placing, well it can never be ruled out but the bod will be hit as three added the lions share of there holdings at 2.50p in July.

12-Jul-24 11-Jul-24 Buy Donald Strang 2.50 GBX 1,600,000 2,557,545

12-Jul-24 11-Jul-24 Buy Kiran Morzaria 2.50 GBX 1,800,000 3,373,240

12-Jul-24 11-Jul-24 Buy Andrew Suckling 2.50 GBX 1,600,000 1,981,602

I think a sale is more likely,

BRICS nations are most likely under present geopolitics, the ore may never leave Brazil as ore!

In March, plans a foot to ship to the USA, I do believe that was a serious consideration.

https://youtu.be/gEswmiGsVUA?si=Ig6rGoZ6I-zXAQca&t=420

As I mentioned yesterday, that's the only complication I see from the interview in March to date with the progress being made ticking all the boxes pending the licenses and finally finance/sale, looking very close!

Yes, I noticed that @tomcat14 and is consistent with what's been released since March and as we all know waiting for that 67% was key!!!

Thanks @tomcat14

Footer on slide 5 the first Amapa specific content and mentioned in yesterdays RNS

Full control of integrated rail and port provides the capability to pursue regional expansion opportunities, with c.1.0Bt+ of potential resource situated within 30km of the existing rail line.

3rd December RNS:

The Amapá Project represents a well-developed and largely de-risked opportunity, featuring established mineral reserves, advanced environmental permitting, and complete control of integrated rail and port infrastructure. This ownership and control of the infrastructure contribute to the project's low-cost base and will enable the pursuit of regional expansion opportunities, with substantial resources located within 30 kilometres of the existing rail line. In addition to the DR-grade flow sheet, the project will use 100% renewable energy sources. We anticipate this will help us achieve one of the lowest carbon footprints in the region while still delivering a robust and highly profitable project.

Slide 14 is interesting: Title Future expansion potential centred on numerous resource targets, and underpinned by Amapá's control of export infrastructure logistics.

Https://www.datamarnews.com/noticias/brazil-and-china-sign-agreement-establishing-new-route-between-river-ports-in-amapa/

“China will export biofertilizers through the Port of Santana, which will be distributed across Brazil, especially to the Central-West region, while also supplying Amapá. In return, we’ll send soybean grains received at the Port of Santana to China. This partnership will create jobs, income, and opportunities,” said the mayor.

@Huinhwa,

yes all target are being hit, just the licenses remain that could be granted before year end and then financing, but the chances of financing would have been greatly improved on with the 67% ore confirmed, cash costs FOB being reduced to $33.75 and improvement on $35 and the payback period reduced to 3 years from 4.

Of course as we don't know who are in talks and so there may be a complication if the ore was intended for the US given the circumstances with Trump and his tariffs. If the interested parties are Chinese then that could be a positive as the trade between Brazil and China is growing on many fronts but agriculture is very strong so the railroad and port locality could be very attractive.

There hasn't been one and considering the last two RNS's have been in within a week does surprise me considering how significant they are, could be a few reasons, I'll ponder upon one and that being the financing/sale is close and KM doesn't want to have to take questions on that, I'm sure the glass half empty reasons will follow.

@ Huinhwa

@Jimb2—Let's be careful here

I am being careful using the words from the CEO being laser focused on goals to achieve by year end as was the case in March, I did add if things haven't changed since March.

https://youtu.be/5DTCChBU_fA?si=euFmXPtZ8ra91RnW&t=1000

Construction starts beginning 2025, if things haven't changed since March, news on financing will come before that.....

Already in positive talks with interested parties back in March...........

Positive news as slow as it has been but all within the set time frame as of March adding significantly to the NPV.

Has to very close to a finance decision now or sale.

And from March, worth a listen to the full interview but for a quick listen to the plan as it was back then:

https://youtu.be/5DTCChBU_fA?si=euFmXPtZ8ra91RnW&t=1000

laser focused!

Yes it could be before year end we get financing or sale, a couple of positives reasons on top of the recent strengthening trade ties with Brazil and China:

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202411/1322991.shtml

Numbers tell the story: In the first quarter of 2024 alone, China imported 310 million tons of iron ore, with Brazil accounting for 69 million tons - a whopping 19 percent year-on-year increase.

@MLQ 6TH November

https://santanadoamapa.blogspot.com/2024/11/bala-rocha-assina-protocolo-de.html

The agreement to be signed aims to establish a long-term strategic cooperation between the Port of Santana and the Port of Gaolan (Zhuhai, Guangzhou/CN). It will cover areas such as maritime route development, integrated logistics, technology exchange and talent training.

A little I added:

2018

A record-breaking 20,867 tons of coal and iron ore were carried by seven trains in a single day from Xinhe Wharf at Gaolan Port on Feb 9. Before this year, only up to six trains left the port daily, but now seven is the norm with nine being the maximum.

This was the largest-ever daily shipment yet carried by Gaolan Port Railway to the Guangzhou-Zhuhai freight line. One train itself, 39735, was loaded with 3,100 tons of iron ore.

73% lift today would be fair