Member Info for Jim800

Oops sorry. Here they reported liquidity of 120M - so most of the RCF has already been called upon. They deliberately don't keep much cash to hand so any significant expenditure has to fit into this cashflow planning. I'd guess they see the SP rising so will pause BBs for a bit and ease cashflow.

Following a forum isn't the best way to establish what the liquidity is - that's why they release Interim Results (see 1 Sep RNS).

Basic maths would indicate that leaves 3,600 wells leaking.

Obviously no idea of quantities (and how would US Govt measure it in the event that charging by leak volume ever became law)?

Another factor to keep an eye on, I'm sure the environmentalists will be typing up greatly exaggerated reports whilst they sit in their gas heated parents' houses.

And if it's slightly up?

If it's up then down?

They're not supposed to be doing BBs to manipulate the Share Price, its to reduce shares in circulation (though increase in SP might be a side effect).

Think you're being a bit simplistic for a dynamic situation - probably why you're not a highly paid investment broker.

Go on then Terry give us your buyback plan for next week in advance and we’ll see how you do.

Criticising size, cost and timing of BBs with the benefit of hindsight is pointless and stupid. Anyone can make a fortune trading yesterday’s price movements.

They probably wait til PM to see where US market is heading.

If they buy loads this morning and price falls this afternoon or Monday you’ll all be complaining again.

They’re upping volumes which is why most holders here (not necessarily most holders) wanted.

Lukee - it was never a potential dual listing in the USA. It was an aspiration if Market Cap reached a certain level (which it hasn't).

GG - I know you don’t like to stray too close to reality and evidenced based facts but can you show us one example of a company saying they don’t know why their share price has fallen? I’ve never seen one in 20 years.

No-one was chucking out RNSs saying our SP has dropped due to covid or Russia invading Ukraine either.

MH - that was kind of my point.

Go back and read this forum after the half yearly results were released - lots about derivatives and how they’re managed in accounts.

DEC don’t buy at spot price - they sell! But they also buy / sell / trade derivatives as a hedge against what that spot price might be.

So some derivatives (the settled ones) are included in one part of accounts and the others (not yet settled are elsewhere) Go read the accounts - that’s why they issue them!

GG,

The BoD can’t say they don’t know the reason for share price movements as they know lots of reasons: interest rates, exchange rates, gas prices, bond yields and above all good old gear and greed. Greed took us up to 140 and fear has taken us to here. Doesn’t really matter if they’re substantiated or not. Scared holders act like sheep.

What do all the posters asking for an RNS on share price want? Two possible statements:

It’s all a fraud and we’re going bust. I don’t believe that to be the case and they wouldn’t admit it. OR

Everything is fine - which lots of people wouldn’t believe anyway.

Their actions speak louder than words, they’re buying shares so they think they’re worth it.

As I’ve said previously there is a cashflow issue as per AoC’s numbers but DEC had 120M liquidity at the point the RCF RNS was issued to sort it out.

I expect they’re a little too busy planning strategy to answer individual emails on why the SP has fallen.

DEC has always stated that it aims to keep a minimal cash balance with all incomes spent on operating costs, debt and interest payments and returning money to investors in the form of dividends.

Although it has an RCF of 425M, it has only got 120M of this left as liquidity. Ie it looks like it has been spending RCF on acquisitions / BBs / operating costs / dividends.

This is the concern! Will the 120M plus operating income cover debt / interest / dividends until the debt repayments drop. I don’t know and guess most of the posters on here don’t either.

However, the 14 banks were happy to continue lending, Directors continue to hold their shares and generally, brokers notes are positive and cite a NAV of much more than the current SP.

DEC do have a few weapons: increase BBs - I wasn’t a fan at 100 but at 75p it makes sense, sell assets or reduce dividend. Any or all of these may happen but there’s little evidence to point at a company that can’t continue to operate if you accept acquisitions are out of the question in the near future.

I’m holding (£130ks worth) but will only add once I’m sure we’ve hit the bottom and turned. If MMs and institutional sellers are at work then it might get worse before it gets better - but today’s volumes look like normal sellers but no buyers.

AoC - so which bits don’t you think are factually correct?

I did watch TOTU - always finished with a scantily clad lady - doubt that’ll happen in Iraq.

Doubt TOTU would have worked with burkas and hijabs.

JDC - thanks for the calculations and the use of an envelope.

However, not sure it's reassuring. According to your calculations, over the 3 months: debt, interest and dividends exceed cashflow income by $32M - although made better by a one off disposal of $16M. So Company are spending more than they earn with the difference made up from RCF. Hardly sustainable - will it be a knife edge until first ABS is paid off in full? Most of the loans appear fixed rate so interest rate reductions aren't going to help unless they refinance.

I don’t agree with most of what GG posts but he has made a few fair points which shouldn’t be lost in the rest of his personal opinions.

Agree he’s correct that CC and PV fields are both very unlikely to contribute to the bottom line anytime soon.

His point on liquidity post recent RCF is also a fair one. Money available to borrow increases by $50M but liquidity only goes up by $10M. Doesn’t really matter whether it is company liquidity or loan liquidity with no acquisitions in the period and a few disposals, are they borrowing just to run the company at present? Or is it just specific events impacting the 2 days in question?

I run a company with £250k turnover and liquidity can jump about by 20% of that in a day in both directions (big invoice paid, VAT paid, corporation tax paid etc).

If, with no further acquisitions over H2 2023, debt isn’t falling something will need to change.

Again, where’s any evidence of pipeline reopening? Or even informed speculation by parties that might actually have an involvement?

Who expects? Why do they expect?

Broom - think it might be some sort of care in the community day. They’ve all been given keyboards for the day.

Hopefully back to fact and reasoned opinion next week.

GG - investing all that time and emotional energy just so you can say “told you so” in 12 months seems unlikely to be your best use of time.

Couldn’t you try for a job in McDonalds instead? You might get stars then which must be more satisfying than a mere “told you so.”

There’s been much debate on the wisdom of this, the complexity of reporting in the accounts and whether it has a material impact on cashflow.

It’s hard to tell from the numbers but I had assumed (perhaps naively) that DEC only hedged their production.

Is there a chance that actually they’re doing a whole lot of futures gambling over and above production levels in an attempt to profit from NG and NGL price moves?

If so, that might explain some of the opaque accounting. Perhaps even the CFO departure.

No evidence of this, just asking.