How many of you think?17 Sep 2023 01:42
1. That SB knew well in advance that a NEM bid for NCM was on the cards well before he was removed by NCM, and well before the 5% debacle, that in part is the reason why he/NCM refused the 5% offer by GGP for $85m?
2. Why was the $85m offer refused? IMO, it was refused because SB was banking on GGP not being able to raise further cash to survive over the long term and more importantly hang on over an extended duration to raise further cash until a NEM/NCM takeover deal had been successfully concluded, and that could well last into early 2024? Thankfully Wyloo our white Knight have now come to the rescue re the latest RNS.
3. If such thinking was actually correct (All Conjecture at this point of course) , what would SB have achieved? A nice cheap takeover of GGP’s 30%?
4. Moving onwards, that scenario did not play out well for SB, as SD outplayed him etc, SD is a seasoned chess player it would seem.
5. So what you may ask, am I getting at?
6. There seems to be a continuing discussion on here that NEM if successful in taking over NCM will divest Hav/Telfer?
7. I don’t believe that will transpire , I think NEM will actually want to keep Hav/Telfer for 3 reasons.
8. The first being NEM are looking to save/reduce costs over the next 2 years over their whole portfolio and will not be wanting to fund high decommissioning costs for Telfer when there is a very viable project sat on their own front door right next to Telfer. Secondly, Havieron is an asset with potential that cannot be simply ignored in terms of what revenues/profit it will generate over say at least 15-20 years. Thirdly, RIO are now knocking on the door, just on their periphery, can’ see NEM being ecstatic about that, can you?
9. So all in all, I actually think the NCM JV will continue as planned with NEM and for GGP we will start to earn some much needed cashflow and who knows in the not too distant future maybe a dividend or 2.