Member Info for JG68

Systemica increased 0.1 yesterday I'm afraid.

https://shorttracker.co.uk/daily/

According to stockepedia the book value ps is 600 even before the sale money is included, based on 2 billion debt.
Well they have until 22nd to make an offer, or hopefully flush out another bidder.
Got be North of 300 surely.

Bit worrying they're even increasing their shorts yesterday at such low levels. What chance have we got.

What will this open at tomorrow?

Oh yes, bidding war , exactly as the activist investor predicted.

Just look at woods reaction to their new contract, chalk and cheese.

I know they downgrade oil services stocks only to go short a few days later.

What happens then?

As far as I'm concerned, the only thing that has given him any credibility since October 21 is that he actually purchased shares with his own money in December.

Again scraping the barrel, no figures included in another contract award, I really hope Sami didn't give us another load of bull about "preferred bidder" etc like he dud at half year results.
If nothing significant lands before the FY update I fear this will be plummeting to new lows.
I remember saying the same in November about Dec update having seen none of his promised awards come through in the second half as guided.
This really is a 5h1t show at the moment.

Looks like 3 million buy maybe ?

We've already been told in December what results will broadly be.
Debt minimal in June.
There will be one off business sale costs impacting profit.
Imo it will be a non event until August.
And the only thing that can derail August is further disposals with further one off costs impacting profit then too.
Could well be another year hovering around here until they can produce a set of results to show the company is profitable and increasing FCF.

The ballot closes the day before results , that would water down any half decent update.

This is more of a reason to delay dividends. They can't exactly restart payments to shareholders if workers are striking over pay.

Been a poor show since Feb 2 and now 2 shorts increasing, why on earth I wonder?
The only thing that makes sense is the UK market is so weak its easy for them to drive prices down and make money. So annoying

I have read and re read the following extract from that RNS, I can't remember exactly but I think the sp fell about 15% that day, and for information when the HY update was announced 28th July 22 it rose 9%.
Imo this is a sound hold for those willing to be patient for at a couple of years.
It's all self explanatory and really does not justify where we are today.

Reinstatement of Short-term Margin Guidance

· In the medium-term the Group is confident in delivering at least £1bn of revenue growth from 2022 to 2027. As per our Capital Markets Day, we expect an average profit margin of 9% in the period 2022 to 2027, and recovery to pre-pandemic margin levels of around 10% in the later stages of that period. This is expected to drive significantly more than £100m of EBIT growth over the same period.

· As set out in our full year results outlook, in the short-term, we expect the recovery in profitability to lag our revenue recovery, and hence for margins initially to be below our target 2022-2027 average. The Group continues to expect to deliver a sequential improvement in margins from 2021 levels, with a 2022 margin of around 7%. As guided previously, the pace of the Group's short-term margin recovery continues to be a function of:

o Unprecedented levels of wage inflation in US School Bus amidst industry wide driver shortages. The group is anticipating average wages rises of around 12% for the upcoming School Year. For the c.40% of the portfolio that is currently being renewed in 2022, the business is re-contracting at rates slightly above cost inflation, evidencing the quality of our service offering and customer relationships. We expect to re-contract at least in line with wage inflation across the remainder of contracts as they renew, with a further c.30% of the portfolio up for renewal by the start of the 23/24 school year. Investing ahead of these renewals will put short term pressure on School Bus margins in both 2022 and 2023.

o UK demand recovery, underpinned by continuing to provide great value travel at a time when consumers' spending power is being squeezed. Our low fares (the best value of any major city) drive both revenue and patronage and work alongside active government measures to encourage modal shift.

· In the medium-term we expect average margins to continue to be impacted by:

o An ongoing mix shift towards lower margin, but higher ROCE businesses particularly with the growth of German Rail and asset light US Transit contracts.

o The transition from outright purchases to availability contracts as we continue to decarbonise the fleet, materially reducing upfront cash outflow and improving return on invested capital (with an availability charge slightly higher than historical depreciation).

· Going forwards, the Group expects 2023 margins to improve further on 2022 and towards our 9% target average margin, with further improvement thereafter towards pre-pandemic margin levels, consistent with previous

This is now a stockepedia sucker stock.
Couldn't agree more.

Pokerchips
Wouldn't they have to report on that ?
The email I received from IR stated no change to their guidance hence no need for a TU. She said they never usually do issue an RNS before FY.
I said maybe you should which may go some way to slowing down the constant downtrend.
I meant more recent downturn from 140s to where we are.

F-----g US markets as usual

Looks like more US data affecting US futures, which means we get shunted, until the US markets decide " oh its not that bad" at about 16:35.