Member Info for JG68

So what about a company like 888, leverage is over 5 on 1.7 billion debt, significantly undervalued to its peers but rising in this market.

It might have been more honest and straight talking if the company actually stated that they are implementing a transformation/ turnaround as a result of the damage done by covid.

They tried to gloss it over with Evolve.

This downward trend started way before they started raising rates, it started early 21, and then kicked in to turbo speed last June.

With shorts increasing, no IIs building significant stakes, feels like limbo and easy prey to an unforgiving market.

The last time JL produced such a savage reaction from the markets was Dec 21, and he immediately purchased £100k worth of shares.

That's the last time.

IMO for a CEO on 1.8 million pounds, the least he can do is out some more skin in the game.

It's a disgrace imo

And just for the record it is now worth less than a few hundred million!!

Nofear

She emailed me back yesterday and said she would raise the issue of no BOD buying shares with them.

The more of us that get on to them the better.

The way I see it is there has been a complete structural change in the business which is towards the end of the transformation, and yes it's taking longer than expected, and yes there are still cost issues arising impacting profit and FCF, some of which will finish this year, mainly pension deficit payments, investment (15 mill H2), the remaing cost of the cyber incident, 40 mill of further cost efficiencies by FY 24, and finally business exit costs, all of which should be non recurring.

These will impact FY results imo, but on the positive side, the company is growing revenues again winning contracts, preferred bidder on several more, there is no longer 1 billion debt, there is no longer a 450 million pension deficit, and realistically the real evidence of this transformation will materialise from H2 24 into 25, JL will be long gone, Adolfo will have also made his mark, and imo there is very little chance of the company going under now, and for PIs like me who are well and truly uncomfortably overweight here, in a couple of years 17, 18, 19 p will seem ridiculously insignificant valuations to be stressing about.

I've just emailed IR to ask if they're covered for any class actions etc.

Also just re read slide 26 of the HY update, and it is a totally different company to 2017.

1 billion debt compared to 160

450 m pension deficit to 50 m surplus

Worth a read to settle the nerves.

This whole saga is fear driven imo

Trenners

Where was that about cyber insurance in the results?

I only found this bit that relates to potential claims?

Following the cyber incident, Capita has been working closely with all appropriate regulatory authorities and with customers, suppliers and colleagues to notify those affected and take any remaining necessary steps to address the incident. At the date of approval of these condensed consolidated financial statements, the Group has received no material claims in relation to the cyber incident. At this stage, it is not possible to reliably estimate the value of any potential or future claim or fine/penalty against the Group and no provision has been recorded.

Surely the company would receive more than 300 million if it sold all the businesses and paid all its debt ?

Book value has to be considerably more no?

Put your money where your mouth is.

Buy some shares if everything is going to plan.

Crazy year

It evens itself out though and depends what you eventually sell them for.

I've been regularly trading for the last few years and due to the sheer number of trades and difficulty working out the calculations for CGT purposes, I use a website CGT calculator . Com that does it all for you, and produces a computation that you can include with your self assessment. ( I just Hope it's accurate!!!)

But my point is, his sale at 383 today will register as a loss ( depending what he paid for them) because the sale price will be matched with what he pays if bought back within 30 days, say 360. Correct me if I'm wrong and I'm not 100% sure because the whole calculation process confuses me hence the cgt calculator.

I think the idea is is to prevent people cooking the books using up their allowance or crystallising losses to immediately buy back cheaper.

Confused myself writing that.

Can't get over 19p, not enough buying to sustain that.

On track to deliver acceleration in financial performance in 2023.

Honestly does anyone feel that is one of the most useless lines imaginable to try and gloss over with words what a poor update it was.

Feels desperate attempt to blag the market.

Pathetic JL if you ask me.

Trenners exactly my thought process this afternoon, shall I sell some that I bought at 18.45 if it reaches 19 to invest elsewhere.

Have held back so far.

Sneedway

Did you watch the you tube clip of that guy analysing the MCG financials?

IMO the summary was that if they achieve the numbers forecast for this year, 215 ish OP and grow revenue, margin etc etc

Then this is dirt cheap as used trade off multiples of 15.

But he felt that given the price the market and Wall street analysts simply don't believe management will achieve what they've forecast.

And given the market is forward thinking which takes us well after year end, kind of substantiates this.

He even suggested debt was covered leverage reducing as we all know, and is a company that historically carries high debt.

So we are stuck where we are with constant downward pressure in a market that has no faith in our board.

What a s--t show.

Few little 3 figure sells and they brought this right back down.

You could have set the clock by this.

Clearly US led this onslaught against MCG.

The market is supposed to be forward looking, so it's obvious as that guy stated in the you tube clip, the market does not believe the year end forecasts, and nor do Wall street analysts.

It can only be lack of trust in what the board are stating.

What I got from the video is that the market and he referred to analysts in Wall Street don't believe a word that management say.

And that IR are useless because there have various contract wins that have gone through under the radar.

Very tricky to weigh up, does the market just distrust the board and projections as described in that clip, and the forecasts are mire than realistic.

Or is it something else.

Trenners

You're not alone, apart from this my next largest holding is MCG, I'm down about 50k there on nearly 200k shares.

This is not going bust, and I'm praying MCG don't even with their large debt which is reducing through casflow generation and increased revenues.

Me too I took heavy losses on CINE in my ISA unfortunately, 40k loss when I sold out at 28 p, and then bought 50 k shares in my ISA at 120 so down even further in my ISA.

But I have a load more of these elsewhere at 102, and also at 89.

The difference is that I cut my losses there because I thought they would go bust, and don't expect that at all here.

I bought these in the ISA because I felt they would recover the CINE loss by eventually reaching 200, but it hasn't worked our yet, but I'm sure it will eventually.

I've got time here, do not need to access any capital that is invested in MCG for the foreseeable, so can wait and receive a dividend. The only downside is having so much tied up and potentially missing other opportunities in sharp corrections.

The worm will eventually turn as it did with RR and M&S, and then it will move fast.

Tenners

Whether the market is clever enough to remember little snippets released like that previously is questionable, and I think the cash outflow leading to the increase in debt, as she said spooked the market, and yes the shorts were chomping at the bit.

It's tried to rise twice this last week, and shorts are closing it down like last 10 mins yesterday.

I had 100 k averaged at 30 before results, now I've got 300 in that tranche at 24, and 100 in another tranche at 20.9, so although I'm nursing losses and every 1 p is another 4k, I'm not concerned because essentially the debt will be minimal compared to what it was at FY, and the remainder of the business has to be worth multiples of what it is now.

Do people get the sense from her email that we can expect a similar performance re cash outflows H2?

I kind of do and feel that thecreal evidence of the transformation will be evidenced in 24.