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We know the newsflash has been nothing but positive, so why has the price plunged from 80s at the end of September to 40s end of October.

It feels like a leak of a rights issue has found its was to the city.

Can't just be shorts in full swing.

Pedro

It's not the transitory nature of the problems that concerns me, it's the people running things that got us here in the first place.

The transitory nature of all these current problems were evident 18 months ago , and the boards inaction is now evident to see.

And what about this grand Evolve 5 year plan that was unveiled last year (which included NA as an integral part of), there's been no acknowledgement of failure or U turn in that regard.

They look like incompetent idiots imo.

And although the NA sale is not distressed so to speak, it will be viewed like it is by potential suitors, because everyone now knows we need that sale!!

No disrespect but probably very low because its very easy to jump on at these levels and think this is is a great recovery play over 12-18 months.

Outright shocking management imo and they're allowed to continue.

I'm certainly not counting my chickens with regards the NA sale, everybody knows they now need to make the disposal, not saying its a distressed sale but definitely needed.

I guess we have to hope some giant infrastructure company or PE with deep pockets that really wants the NA business.

Really got me annoyed at the board when reading that.

Shame there isn't more volume to take advantage of an up day here.

It's not nervousness it's pfc specific.

Another one of mine ENOG has a gas rig just off Israel and is their main supplier and that's up 2-3% today.

Dow futures up imho imho

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market

FTSE plunging imho imho

Clickit

The way I'm looking at this now is:

Worst case, legacy issues drag on another year, rights issue and say 30% dilution from this level, orders ( at least 2 x Tenet issued next year, ) continue to increase the backlog, by the end of next year we should operating on a new cycle with a healthy backlog, by early 25 should be a multi bagger from here even with significantly more shares in issue than today.

Best case the legacy contracts are largely closed our, debt has increased slightly, enough liquidity to operate on a cashflow neutral basis next year with orders increasing the backlog, and the market realises no rights issue is required.

I'm happy to give this until at least 25, just delaying any further top ups in case I need to double down in the case of a rights issue.

One thing I think I can say with almost certainty, us that given the sheer scale of work awarded this year, there is little doubt that pfc will be allowed to be at risk of going under and not be in a position to fulfil the contracts awarded imo.

Pokerchips

Yes I agree with your comments regarding the bond market, and that is what I was insinuating, a rights issue.

Because when you think about it newsflash here recently, around 4 billion in contracts awarded ( Tenet, Algeria, Adnoc x 2 and others) recently, one of the main drags on this last year was lack of orders, and the share price has list 40% in the last month. Doesn't add up even in a dire market.

Yes this is an easy target for shorts on small volume, and the outstanding legacy contracts are hopefully coming to a conclusion.

So why no response from the market to the significant order backlog?

And also looking at the cash and debt situation at HY, they clearly used cash as working capital and debt increased as a result too.

But there seemed to be ample liquidity at in terms of cash in hand remaining at HY too.

So with up front payments from contracts, legacy payments due, can't really see why a rights issue would be needed, plus they would need significantly increase shares in issue to raise any meaningful amount.

Scratching my head.

Thanks Sneedway

Yes second one to be awarded later in the year was the statement.

Funnily enough just after SP tanked to 40s and astaris increased their short to over 1%.

So expecting that announcement soon, not that contract awards do anything positive other than tank the SP.

I just wonder if there is some sort of capital raise on the cards, until legacy payments received, and an RNS releasing the contract award and capital raise simultaneously.

Ronnie

I can't find it but it was given by one of the analysts as a ballpark figure.

Someone may remember and have the link.

It was also discussed under the acquisitions thread a while back, look under hopeless values example, possibly wealthtransfer, sneedway

What is clear in these markets, especially the UK , is that solid ftse 100 companies are getting smashed on small misses from even the supposedly low valuations that commentators suggest they are.

Examples Natwest today, Barclays, rentokill, standard chartered, these blue chips are getting battered 10, 15%, its crazy, it makes you wonder where markets are really headed, no real sign of bottoming.

Whether MCG is viewed by some as solid recovery value play over time remains to be seen.

And as far as the US disposal, I'm not expecting fireworks on news of that disposal, possibly temporary spike, just have to look at Wood group and their environmental disposal last year, what the valuation was and is now.

Evens 14s

2/1 16s today.

This really is excruciating to be so down on and involved in.

The goalposts gave been moved by so much even from FY in March 23.

How have they gone from that to now needing 40 mill cost savings by end of 24 to drive profitability and generate FCF.

Nofear it's like reading about a totally different company in 6 months.

Did they lie so much in March?

Complete madness to even dream of that, no chance.

Will be lucky to get into late 70s without positive catalysts.

this is from the fy update in march:

i would email back pasting this summary, and ask how has the company gone from that in march 23, to now requiring 40m cost saving by end of fy24 to generate free cash flow?

it's total bu--****.

financial results - free cash flow and net debt

we delivered positive free cash flow, before the impact of business exits1 of £29.0m (2021 outflow: £218.6m) and free cash flow was positive at £24.5m (2021 outflow: £264.3m). the swing to positive free cash flow generation reflected a reduction in pension deficit payments from £155.5m to £38.6m and deferred vat repayments from £104.1m to £14.9m, together with an underlying improvement in operating cash flow conversion.

Hi nofear

You know the thing that angers me most, is JL back slapping his turnaround and himself, God that leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

Incredible , all the algos kick in to ensure we finish red.

Guess just another day rolling with punches!!

I guess it doesn't even matter anymore because lots need 50% to break even, and lots probably need 1-200% also.

Imo I think it will be the markets response to new leadership, making a point to cpi and JL.