Member Info for JG68

No I'm not, he's a shorter, but his posts are balanced and seem reasonable.

He's not like Tony or Dogger trying to install fear. What do I know.

Petrofac reportedly needs to raise $450m

( see: )

and Fitch believe that only $60m of that can be got by selling non-core assets

( see: )

so why would current shareholders put $390m in at 10p?

About $250m of the funds raised would disappear immediately to repay the banks leaving $200m for working capital. But then shareholders have 2.5 years to think about how they find $600m to repay the bonds. Given that the business is forecast to make a loss of $10m in 2024 then they need to generate about $400m of free cash in 2025 and then $200m of free cash in H1 of 2026. That's completely unrealistic.

And hence shareholders really need the bondholders to do some sort of deal to either extend the maturity of the bonds or restructure them in some other manner. And if you're asking the bondholders to compromise their claim then you're going to have to give them some cheap equity ...

Which is basically a roundabout way of saying that I think that your 10p is too high. A "reset" fund raise is needed, combined with a debt for equity swap on the bonds, which will reduce the huge interest burden that the business currently faces. Expect debt to be swapped at a share price of 4p (£20m pre-money market cap) with funds to be raised at the same price mainly from the bondholders.

JakNife

They're may not be a placing at these levels, but that doesn't mean that a restructuring of the bond won't happen, which could involve issuing numerous shares to suffice bondholders, and likely to significant reduce the equity valuation if that happens.

Hindy / Pokerchips

I know you are both right.

I do have to let off steam and this is as good a place as any.

And yes Pokerchips that was really my point, volume was 5000 buys and 6000 sells, mostly BOT trades.

It just seems unjust that such a small volume of trades can have such a large impact.

What a joke this UK market is, an outperform rating with price target shaved which is still considerably higher, and they're knocking 3-4% off already.

Pathetic mms

US markets Hindy, hardly the Ftse 250, MCG has had a good run recently, but look at the starting point for that run 58p!

I have another share that is down 1.5% today on total sells of 6300 shares at 4 50, its no wonder people don't invest here when markets can lower a market cap by 1.5% on 6000 sells after 2 hours. Its pathetic.

My real fear here is it doesn't hold 80s, then a complete spiral again is not out the question

All I know is that markets aren't exactly setting a nice tone for 24 yet. The first 5 days seems to set the tone according to some analysts.

Exactly FOS

Well I predict shorts have increased again

Easily, all these deluded rampers on here who are new to this share have ruined this board, and 99% of their predictions are wrong. That's why gamblers always lose

Your call seems more realistic that the resident rampers on here, although it will pee me right off but wouldn't be at all surprised.

A lot closer than all the short term rampers / bouncers

I wouldn't be surprised to see a 5% retrace today, buy volume outweighing sells yet they keep dropping it.

One of those days they seem determined right now.

This is the problem investing here, I feel like adding but just do not trust the mms running things.

Could as easily retrace to 70s as rise to 90s

Red or black

It's just Bots and UK mms doing what they do best imo, saying welcome back PIs and happy new year.

Bots are having a right go this morning.

Guess a lot depends if we get another rns with further increase on Friday. That would work!!

JPMorgan added less than 2% then reduced same week.

M&G reduced by 3.5%.

Not enough the 3.5% and seemed a while ago.

Do overhangs go on for months?

Just seems very strange unless several have reduced under 5% that we don't know about which amounts to 11.5% worth of shares.

Sp is the highest and same it was before the profit Warning in October.

They could have increased significantly plenty of times in 50s and early 60s.

Possibly they are putting pressure on the board for something, almost saying otherwise we will just increase to 30% and this will happen.

Still baffled where has 70 million shares come from in December.

But still 70 million shares disclosed since Dec 2, yeah could have been accumulated over a period, but surely not just from PIs selling.

I'd love to know where from.

No TR1s showing reductions.

They usually RNS small reductions, sometimes less than 1%.

It's all seems odd to me.

Unless MMs have been stocking bulk amounts for some time and facilitated off book trades.

Also is there angle for increasing using 2 companies now, European and Northern.

The other thing that could be part of them increasing their holdings to what seems significant now, is the Evolyn (cosmens) plan to run a eurotunnel service as competition, and possibly MCG being considered as the operator.

There was an article a couple of months ago linking it all but has gone all quiet since.

This could be related and part of cosmens / evolyns plan.