Member Info for JG68

Sneedway

It's not as bleaker a picture you're painting imo.

Re the Germany provisions, the cash outflow will be 30mill for 24 and 11 million thereafter.

There is an expected loss of 5 mill expected for 24 and then a return to profit 25 onwards.

A large part of the adjusted items (78 million) affecting cashflows were one off non recurring.

They still manged to oay the bills comfortably with debt stable. That in itself will result in a reduction in debt this FY 24 out of the additional FCF.

The guidance of 185 to 205 I feel is very conservative, with the lower end considered by them as very pessimistic.

Impression I got was the different divisions are at different stages of recovery, and 24 is a further recovery year, with 25 being in much better shape.

This doesn't assume a successful NA sale.

Plus come the end of this year some of these unprofitable contracts can either be renegotiated or just dumped!!

Imo for a company that is forecasting say 200 mill OP this year with good FCF to pay the bills,50 odd p is dirt cheap if you give a 18-24 month timescale.

But what do I know, I'm 10s of thousands in the red!!!

Ridiculously overpriced!!!

Pokerchips

Just to clarify.

Are they delaying the NA sale until after the schools bids are finalised, therefore giving potential suitors clearer future margin potential with improved contracts and inflation linked increases built in ?

LWHL

Didn't it only go up 2 mill yoy? 985 t0 987.

I think it is the recovery time fir NA.

The webcast is well worth listening to, it calmed me somewhat!!

Pokerchips

Absolutely agree TBH, "vomiting " my discontent on here is harmful to me and annoying to others.

I half expected a 15-20% kicking today, and now that I'm comfortable with a longer timescale and am confident that moving forward new contracts will have more protective safeguards in place, I actually feel better and calmer around this as a solid longer term investment, especially at these levels. 25/26 is just around the corner when you think about it.

Pokerchips

To add , the lower end of the 24 guidance is seen as a most pessimistic scenario considering the stated headwinds in the bridge to meet that guidance.

I guess at the end of the day, the 22-27 evolve strategy was always a 5 year plan, and even when they presented it, margin recovery was not expected to peak until the later years of the plan.

So it's been a very bumpy year but definitely green shoots as you say.

I actually found Stamps answers and explanations gave me more confidence than the CEO.

Not many questions also, none by telephone, I wonder if that RBC analyst downgrades again below the 80.

At least we know that margin recovery in the US to pre covid levels is 26 without a disposal.

Hopefully when earnings are visible after bidding in q3, possible suitors will see clearer future earnings to justify a half decent offer to buy it.

Thanks will do

Pokerchips

but the issue is causing an oversize affect on cash outflow issue for 2024

Is this likely to affect FCF for 24 ?

Not sure because I'm south nr luton but saw it on a Google newsfeed, people were complaining because of the reduced timetable and getting to work.

I saw a newsfeed yesterday saying they were doing Blackpool to whitby a few times a day for 4 quid but reduced service and specific times.

4 quid that's just stupid.

Paddyboy

I think they have 894 million unutilised, 294 cash and 600 RCF, but FCF actually increased slightly, clearly the bills can be paid, any cut in rates will help, we just have to wait it out. What's another couple of years to reap some rewards as long as you don't need the cash.

US not open yet, that could sway things one way or another

"I think Im just ranting now and need to go off and have a word with myself"

Think you read too many of my posts last week!!!

I'm not ranting anymore, just accepted that will be another 12-18 months or so to see evidence of marked improvement, hopefully will get a chance to trim a bit some time this year as brought my average down more today.

I'm fairly confident that given the underlying business is profitable, that we will deleverage either through an event such as a disposal, or simply through eventual fall in interest rates.

Hope I'm right in saying that nothing gives me any concern over it as a going concern, which is always the number one worry when price action is what it is.

Wealth

Couldn't agree more.

Is it fair to say that even with a conservative FY24 guidance as stated, that without the non recurring one offs incurred this last year, they should finally be able to show a net profit at year end, all be it a small one, subject to any unknowns and possible fx impacts?

The underlying business seems to operating profitably when you take out the provisions and some of these other outflows.

Someone bought close to 6 million last week, and no tr1 since.

Wealthtransfer

What do you think wasn't already priced in?

NA recovery time and delay on the sale?

Net debt flattish

FcF positive flattish

Earnings forecast roughly as per HY23.

Is it just sentiment here?

Hard not to Fish.

Actually I'm on 1800 pp now.

Just got to wait it out now.

Does this really warrant another sell off?

No US impairment, good, and from briefly skimming I think overhead headroom 300+ above carrying value.

Hence overall losses narrowed compared to 22.