Member Info for JG68

This is just classic ftse dog5h1t index waiting to see what the yanks do on what should be a great day generally for all stocks.

What a lame market

If this was AA in US it would be 10% plus, simple Loser London markets end off

Bet they tweaked the wording last minute as 2 fingers to O Leary

Https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-economy-grows-by-06-first-quarter-ons-data-shows-2024-05-10/

Apart from the obvious debt/ bond related factors, the bits about negative cash flows 45-50 over ne t 2 years, and the Alsa concessions retendering in 2027, because let's be honest as they suggest there is a massive over reliance on Alsa to keep the company going this last year, and probably this current year too.

I have copied some extracts from the report below:

Uncertainty with regard to timing and amount of the potential proceeds from the

planned disposal of the North American School Bus business, the impact of the

renewal of the long haul concession in Spain (due in 2027) on the profitability of the

group, as the effect of the potential refinancing of the hybrid notes on its key credit metrics

Moody's review will focus on (i) Mobico's operating performance in the first half of

2024, (ii) the amount of the proceeds and the timing of the planned disposal of the

North American school bus business, iii) the company's plans regards the refinancing

of the hybrid notes, (iv) the sustainability of the revenue and earnings of ALSA in view of the potential retendering of the long haul concession in 2027, and (v) an evaluation of the current and forecasted operating trends and free cash flow generation.

RATINGS RATIONALE

As at 31 December 2023, Mobico's liquidity position is good, with £356 million of cash and equivalents on balance sheet and an unused £600 million revolving credit facility

maturing in July 2028. The rating agency expects that cumulative free cash flow over the next two years will be negative by £45-50 million, assuming no dividends to

shareholders.

The rating agency currently factors in the refinancing of the company's £500

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

The Baa3 rating could be downgraded if the company's operating performance and

debt metrics fail to materially improve or if the low visibility over its financial policy and concession risks in Spain persist.

Quantitatively, the following debt metrics could prompt a downgrade: i) retained cash flow/net debt remains below the mid teens percentage terms, or ii) the FFO interest cover below 4x, or iii) leverage, measured as gross debt/EBITDA, failing to reduce towards 4x, iv) free cash flows below mid to high single digits in percentage of debt.

All metrics include Moody's standard adjustments. In addition, in the event of a disposal of the North American School Bus business, the reduced scale and

diversification resulting from the sale would need to be more than offset by improved debt metrics.

Despite some improvement, Mobico's key credit ratios will remain weak for the Baa3

rating over the next 6-12 months in the absence of asset disposals. The rating agency

currently anticipates that leverage, measured in terms of Moody's-adjusted gross debt to EBITDA, will reduce below 5x over the next 6-12 months, from earnings growth and

a lower level of one-offs. However, leverage is likely to remain above pre-pande

Meanwhile MW keep increasing their short.

Wish they would do one

Thanks for clarifying.

You seem to have that right.

All I can say is if this is what a buy at almost treble the sp broker rating does, God only help us if what he says in June is anything other than very positive.

Any cash call, or words like challenging, increased outflows, unknown costs yet to be revealed, then we are fecked

Do we know if this dividend constitutes a Full Years worth in one go, meaning next year could be say circa 5p ( 1.5 interim, 3.5 final) ?

Did they clarify anywhere what can be expected moving forward?

Trisor

He sounds like Aims twin from 3 months ago!!

Do we know if that was released first thing yesterday or after market close?

Same old 5h1t, gives a little and takes most back.

It was so obvious this morning they weren't going to let m this stay in 14s.

Trisor, to be honest based on the last 2 rankings, after this amount of time I expected a little bounce back, but nowhere in sight yet.

I hope for f---s sake he doesn't want to do a cash raise for growth purposes.

Deal with the costs as stated and there is a profitable business underneath.

Well looks like whoever prices this ( and it isn't the market) doesn't want it to stay above 14.

See where we are at day end I guess. But no rampy feelings here.

Useless

A penny or two is 5 to 10k for some PIs on here, so it's a huge difference, and just means if we were ever to get a 10-15% bounce day which we havnt had for over a year, it's that much closer to BE for some who have been here a while.

It was without doubt the RBC downgrade in Dec / Jan that triggered a downward trend which then took steroids in March.

I'm not expecting back to 20s anytime soon, but maybe 15s /16s is a little more realistic and certainly less stressful than 12s/13s.

Green shoots Trisor, let's hope it really is spring.

Funny how the market is listening to some big shots comments and totally ignoring the TU only a few weeks ago.

Beggars belief this is how the UK market treats decent profitable companies.

Don't all count your chickens.

I will be amazed if this finishes the day above 60.

Capita Plc CPI.L : Deutsche Bank initiates coverage with buy rating and target price

35p

You were quick to trash us when RBC downgraded