Member Info for JG68

Exactly wealthtransfer

In Alsa they have one of the best transport businesses in Europe imo.

The sum of the parts does not justify this valuation, sentiment and management does.

Also they probably have 12-18 months to start thinking about the Hybrid don't they, if maturity is 27-31?

By which time NA sale aside rates are hopefully likely to be lower.

Do you recall what the analyst was asking about re Alsa concessions ending possibly next year, couldn't quite grasp what they referred to and if there could be an impact to Alsa then ?

Thanks Hindy that's is really helpful.

No won't be doing anything rash here , but I do find the posters on this board are generally extremely balanced and really knowledgeable.

Hindy

Also is it your understanding the reason to delay the schools disposal is to demonstrate new school year bids/ contracts on better margins?

Nor me Paddy.

But cheers

Hindy

Aren't we below the October low?

And what was the covid low, because it must have been an intra day low?

Thanks

Well I've got extra pampers in!!

There are various posters suggesting risk of administration, balance sheet hanging on by a thread, there was even one yesterday suggesting that Cosmens are adding to be able to get Alsa on favourable terms from creditors after MCG goes into prepack.

Obviously where we are and with sentiment at an all time low, one begins to question if you're going to get wiped out.

As simplistic as it is to think like this, I keep reminding myself how much Alsa is probably worth if it were sold today, well over a billion I would guess.

Who knows Laralara, probably just sentiment and revised guidance. Hopefully things will settle in a while until July!!!

Mavswf

I think I recall some brokers initially talking about figures circa 1.2 billion 6 months ago, but really unsure now.

Can anyone clarify the reason for delaying the sale until around q3 after the schools bids contracts are finalised?

Is it to demonstrate to potential suitors the improved profitability margins on future revenue / contracts given the current inflationary headwinds?

I think they stated they hope to complete the sale by year end.

Or paid off when they finally dispose of NA schools.

Paddyboy

When you're holding large amounts like us, sometimes these little seeds get planted and get you questioning everything.

When talking of why cosmens are adding, is there any validity in this post from advfn.

wouldn't occur to the thickest of the thick that they would want to command the strongest hand in administration in order to have the credibility and gain the confidence of the creditors when this shower falls into prepack.

Smokeytime

He's just like us, been averaging down for couple years, he's more in the red than me !

Personally given the events of the last 6 months, I'm not going to start believing guidance until October's q3 update, and just hope for positive external factors in the meantime. Can't see much happening now on US rate cuts, probably be more next year than 24.

And by then we probably won't be so sensitive to rates.

The market here is simply awful, other companies that are generating decent profits and good FCF can barely keep green on a day like today, eg CARD, MONY, RNK.

God forbid any war escalation also, been quiet in Israel because of passover. That will be back next week no doubt.

Paddyboy I think it was an RBC downgrade that started this leg down, exacerbated by the Germany thing soon after.

The only thing that makes any real sense to me is the City and the market simply does not believe any guidance that is given , and to be honest why should it and why should we.

They gave a load of bull at HY last year promising the cost increases in contracts would be weighted to H2, and then have consistently revised it down 4 times. Credibility is shot.

Similarly what happened at THG and it is going to take at least 3 - 4 quarters if meeting guidance to regain trust. If they meet the top end if guidance 205 for this year then 52p looks stupid. And this without any external catalysts to give it a boost.

I need to listen to the q & a again because there's something about the Alsa concessions ending next year that I'm not quite understanding also.

They reduced 1% in October also.

Can't see the big issue but knowing the market will probably whack us 15% just because of sentiment here.

Jesus C, another one appears, we really are under the cosh and now being targeted.

I think this is going to get really ugly here.

Shorts probably don't believe the guidance and expect further profit warnings.

What an awful investment.

4% down when markets are flying, on a profitable cash generative stock says it all about the utter idiots in the City

Or there's a leak and they're not much cop.

Hate to see what a BOD sell would do.

This is a write off until 25