RE: RE: The attraction of SOU28 Aug 2019 11:54
I am in the camp that doesn't believe they will receive a credible deal for our Eastern Moroccan assets / company, which will probably mean that we will be forced to "go long", raise more money, take out that finance package with Enigas to develop the Te5 Horst and head towards "First Gas" in 2021. I'm not even sure if they will bother drilling Te-11 given its COS when compared to drilling an appraisal well in the Horst, remembering that at least 5 new drill locations have been identified by the team. Any value in our company IMHO comes from the Te5 Horst. That is why, the other day, I commented that the whole strategy of the company will now shift towards developing The Horst, finalising the GSA and getting the Heads Of Agreement Document signed and in-turn making plans to get the pipeline constructed, which is obviously crucial in terms of transporting the gas to market (both domestic and European). As for SM, they will continue to work on finding a farm-in partner, but due to a shortage of available funds, will perhaps keep it on a bit of a backburner. Convenient when you think that our outstanding debt is tied into SM.
I think Parsons was banking on them finding gas and as he has said, his job was to keep us mug punters interested and sticky to the share. In the most part, he achieved that. I believe that he generally thought that they would find gas and his hyping was to a degree, commensurate with his belief that they would derive some notable success with Badile, Te-8, Te-9 and Te-10. Unfortunately, as well all now know, this didn't happen and now we are left between a rock and a hard place. Parsons has the unenviable task of finding a buyer and only time will tell as to whether or not one will be found.
However, this said, my gut instinct still tells me that they will "go long" and raise more money on the back of "going long." God only knows what will happen to the share price in the situation of a "no deal Souxit." I suspect that the share price would stoop to dystopian levels like those we have only ever imagined in our worst nightmares. 2p....2.5p would be my guess.