Member Info for JezTheFez

PNE,
I agree with everything you say. Yes, we would have to go on to drilling Te-11, which as you know I believe we would have success with. That's the irony that exists, I guess and hence why I remain disappointed that we won't have a proper poke around in the Paleozoic. And before I get corrected, I am aware that Te-10 did go a little way down into the Paleozoic, but not in the detail I believe it deserves given the massive potential it has been purported to have by the likes of BM.

However, the issue I have with some posters on here is that they can't and won't admit that failure at Te-10 will probably mean that the share price will take a pummeling. You and I and Fellrunner are happy to admit that failure would probably see a share price sub 10p and that success would probably see it rise towards 50p and then likely to increase to between 60p and 80p just prior to the share being placed into 'suspension' as we await the fabled LE RNS.

Shaungreen also knows that I am happy to donate £20 to charity should we not drill Te-11, which at this stage in time, is looking highly likely. However, Shaun has failed to comment that he is also happy to donate £20 to charity should we actually go ahead with a Te-11 drill, which I find a bit unfair.

I have covered-off both scenarios so I am not expecting a load of abuse from the usual suspects on here. Not when I have stated that success at Te-10 will have a very positive effect on the share price. I am still exercising caution at Te-10 though and will judge JP et al on results only. I want the hard facts in easy to understand language. Will I get it? Only time will tell......

Chuckle Gas plc, the downmarket, downstream, onshore Cypriot methane extraction company is DISAPPOINTED to announce that with immediate effect, Vanessa "Wannabe Number 5" Ellis has been dismissed from the board at Chuckle. JezTheFez, CEO and Chairman of Chuckle, commented, "In recent days, Trellis our Chief Alcohol Officer and Vanessa our Chief Extraction Officer have clashed and as a consequence have fallen out. Due to the fact that we can't have any disharmony in our company, the decision was made to safeguard Trellis as he recovers from his enlargement surgery. Threats were made pertaining to Trellis's beloved wine cellar and a chopping board was purchased by Vanessa that had a rather nasty sounding appendage, which was simply unacceptable and did not represent company policy. We will not be seeking a replacement to Vanessa at this stage in time."

I will judge JP and his merry band of men and women on results only and not on any fly away comment or aspiration. We have had our fair share of hype and hope. Enough people have speculated on what may or may not happen but it all relies heavily on the forthcoming Te-10 results. There is no half way house, no happy medium, no place of solace. We want to learn what lies beneath at Te-10 with very clear, easy to understand language. In other words, is it commercial or non commercial? Just tell us how it is, warts and all as the likes of 88E and SDX Energy do.

Not long to wait now for the results to trickle their way through over the forthcoming couple of months. Either there'll be a load of new millionaires created or a scramble for a few rogue park benches. Suddenly my panoramic view form above the chip shop doesn't look all that bad.

Fell,

I have given my predictions and shared them on here over the past couple of days. I don't think there is anybody out there who hasn't underestimated the importance of success at Te-10. In short, it's a company maker or indeed breaker. Failure at Te-10 would in short, be catastrophic for SOU and inevitably lead to a chain reaction that would trigger a series of uncomfortable scenarios, which I believe would witness a share price sub 10p. I won't go into those because the trapped bulls whom you have already alluded to here will go ape. However, success at Te-10 would IMO send the share price charging happily towards 50p again and most probably beyond as people will take their positions nd await the LE news / RNS. People will have to move quickly though because the share could be placed into 'suspension' and if you haven't placed your chips on the table, then you ain't going to scoop the winnings.

Unstimulated results: very late March into early April

Stimulated results: late April, possibly creeping into early May

Jacklvi - I think all scenarios have already been carefully discussed and decided on behind the scenes at Sevenoaks.
JP knows what he is doing and I believe he will get the best deal for himself and ourselves. We are quickly nearing the end of SoundOldco with the testing of Te-10. All will become crystal clear once the final result of Te-10 are known.

Ram6ler,

Thanks for your comment. I have just read your comment from a few days ago and didn't realise you had suggested that. It's uncanny that we are both thinking along the same lines! You also agree that we get best of both worlds: a fat, handsome dividend payment for the Eastern Moroccan assets and the opportunity to get a second bite of the cherry over at SM with our shares transferred into the new vehicle, Soundnewco on a pro rated basis based on our current stock holding in Soundoldco.

As for the buyer of our Eastern Moroccan assets, I believe it will fall under state control. It's too important of an asset for Morocco to not have full control of its destiny and for their future in terms of energy supply. JP has always maintained that he will "do right by the asset, do right by the country and its people." I believe he has known for some time that it will fall under state control and perhaps as far back as when he originally met with the King of Morocco.

I will repeat again that I don't believe there will be many shareholders who will be disappointed with the dividend payment and I suspect will be very busily gouging on the spoils from that rather than to dwell on what if's and maybe's. The dividend payment will represent many, many multiples of most people's investments and you get the added bonus of having the opportunity of a second LE when Sidi is eventually sold to the highest bidder(s). What is there not to like?!?

Jacklevi - I think we will all be pleasantly surprised with the dividend we will receive from the sale of the Eastern Moroccan assets. If we are at the same time presented with the opportunity to have our shares transferred over to the new vehicle on a one-for-one basis and the potential for another future LE on the sale of the SM asset then I honestly believe there won't be many people who will be feeling disgruntle. You get best of both worlds: a payment that for many will represent many multiples of their original investment plus the opportunity to earn more money should we find gas with our partner(s) over at SM. I for one would be very happy with that arrangement as we get the opportunity to strike it big over at SM.

Mike,
They have done it because they probably by now, have a buyer for Eastern Morocco and have been unable to secure a buyer for SM at this stage in time and so have to now look at transferring the asset over to the new vehicle, Soundnewco. So rather than sell this asset (SM) off too cheaply, I suspect a farm in partner or partners have been identified to work with us to have a stab over there to see if we can unlock some decent amounts of gas. Certainly, BM believes that there is a lot of gas lurking beneath the salt seal there. 11+ TCF as I said, may have got a few parties very interested / curious.

Both Fishy and I believe that we will have a stab at SM. Glad somebody else agrees.

Ponkey,
An outright sale of the company I believe is everybody's preferred option, but I don't believe this will happen. I think the dealings have turned out to be more complex than even JP was estimating them to be and that the route now seems to be following an asset by asset sale. His reply to Saleem during that one-to-one chat at the bar at The Balls Brothers sort of gives this away. Have a listen to what he says, his delayed response to Saleem's direct question and of course his answer to the question.

And I also believe that when shareholders have gouged themselves on the fat dividend payment based on the sale of the Eastern Moroccan assets, that the opportunity to go after the prize at Sidi with the potential of there being a second LE when that asset is eventually sold, will sit fairly well with the majority of us. We will of course get the chance to vote on this though, as our shares in SoundOldco will have to be transferred over to the new vehicle, SoundNewco and probably on a one-for-one basis so that we retain our stock exposure.

Sounder?

Have a read again of the final paragraph of Soundchew's recent post. I quote the following.....

"Finally and I may be remembering this wrongly and I didn't discuss last week but I also think that SM still has 2 possible farm in partner possibilities which we couldn't be told the names of due to their interest in our portfolio."

My predictions last night and this morning were made without any prior knowledge of this and I wasn't at The Balls Brothers event to garner any clues either as some of you had the luxury of doing. There may be some truth in what I am predicting and from time to time, when my fez is correctly positioned and with spam fritters consumed, I do come up with some interesting points.

Shut up, Sounder. Nobody wants to hear your moaning. Give it a break please.

Thanks Soundchew.

Whilst a contingent sale is a strong possibility, I still reckon that we are finding it hard to find an outright buyer for SM at this stage in time and that after the Eastern Moroccan assets are sold, I think SM will transfer into the Soundnewco vehicle and a potential 3 well drill programme will be designed in order to prove up what we can over there and sell the asset on at a later date. I think that behind the scenes JP has been working on finding a potential farm-in partner or partners who could have agreed to part fund the drill programme. Remember that there is a big prize lurking beneath the sale seal there with circa 11+ TCF estimated gas in place. Somebody somewhere may be thinking that having a stab at SM could be worth a jolly good go.

I guess by doing this JP has derived the best value out of the Eastern Moroccan resources as he can given the fact that we have limited funds and that we're primarily an explorer. And at the same time, put plans in place to work with a farm in partner or partners to go and see what we can discover over at SM, which has the potential to be a world class asset. His intention was never to give away SM for peanuts but at the same time, it's not something that is keeping him up at night, which was alluded to at The Balls Brothers event. So, in short, we get best of both worlds: a big, fat dividend payment based on the sale of the Eastern Moroccan assets and the potential to earn more money should the gas be unlocked over at SM. I'd love to see a dividend payment of more than £1.65 per share by the way, but I was attempting to be conservative :)

I think they are finding it hard to sell Sidi and so may have to go down the route of a 3 well drill programme in the hope to prove up some gas over there and then sell the asset as soon as they can following the results. you could be right though - it might just be bolted on as a nice to have along with our Eastern Moroccan assets.

Oh and as for when the LE will take place?

Reckon we are looking at a June / July 2019 LE.

Interesting watching he video that Saleem kindly took at The Balls Brothers. Some quite revealing body language too. In fact, the most poignant part of the video for me was the one-to-one chat at the bar that Saleem conducted with JP right at the end of the video.

Jizzy's predictions are as follows:

-It appears from what I can deduce that the Eastern Moroccan assets will be sold first and I don't think it will be a company sale. This is true even of Te-10 is non commercial I reckon.
-I think the buyer could be the Moroccan state i.e. it will fall under state control and become a Moroccan owned asset.
- I don't believe we will go on to do any more drills as SoundOldco following Te-10. Te-10 is our final drill.
- I would have thought that shareholders will be paid a one-off special dividend for the sale of the Eastern Moroccan assets. My estimate would be £1.65 per share. This will be after a signed GSA has been agreed of course.
-I suspect the remaining assets will be transferred into the new vehicle SoundNewCo i.e. Sidi and that JJ Trainor will become the new CEO and JP will move on to pastures new, spending time on developing C4E and some of his time with Coro. As far as JP is concerned, he would have done his job and delivered on the promise of a LE.
- JJ will want to find a farm-in partner to go after Sidi, probably with a 3 well drill programme that I suspect will require some quite substantial funding. I suspect that some 3D seismic will also be deployed.
-Shareholders who own shares in SoundOldCo will by way of vote, have their shares transferred over to SoundNewco and probably on a one for one basis.
-The goal with SoundNewco would be similar to SoundOldco in that it will be all about proving-up the asset - in this case SM - and then selling it to the highest bidder or bidders. Once again, we will have another LE, but that probably won't happen until some time in late 2021 at the earliest.

I think Holy Trinity commented on what his thoughts were the other day and I agree with his predictions. In places, quite similar to mine although he will disagree as he always does with anything I say. Can't please 'em all!

So what do people think? Interested to hear how you all think things will pan-out over the next 3-6 months?

JTF

Ogrod - and you are a prize numpty. My wit and humour is well known and loved on this bb. Don't diss the Fez.

Jizzy.

Well I am a fan of MK, which makes me by default a fan of T10Boom.

Hahahahahaha! Tick, tick, tick....tick Boom!

Oh right....T10 is in fact MK reincarnated? Sorry, it's just clicked.
Fair enough. Welcome back, I guess....