Member Info for Jettydog

Again I am in general agreement with you but the Aminex farm out document it clearly shows full field development as taking place after the EPS is in place. Some work will be brought forward andt this is best part of ARA's involvement. I am not convinced how quickly they can move forward and drill another 4 or 5 wells but if they do it will bring with it a massively increased revenue stream.
The potential is there Crusty that is easy to see, with 10 year revenue for our 25% from Ruvuma alone (don't forget we also have HH and H1) in the region of $330 million and a lot more to follow after that. The question is if we can convince a bank to give us a line of credit to reap the benefit.

Hi Crusty, ALBA and the other HH have had a sharp rise (ALBA has doubled since June on HH alone). Solo should be due a rise on HH and also a rise on Ruvuma (though AEX is currently in the doldrums). You are of course right with Solo people seem to be waiting on HH production plans and flow rates and on Ruvuma the funding issue at least to EPS which is $15 million. However at that stage which is just over a year away there should be significant income both from HH and Ruvuma with revenue of $12 million per year from the latter.
Yes our market cap is low but what we own and our revenue prospects are not. I fully agree there is little or now farm out option at the moment but if we can get it to EPS then with ready revenue it is a very different scenario. On the subsequent investment of $20 million after EPS, if we do get that far remember by ARA's own figures the reward is revenue of $40 million plus a year.

Hi Irishmouse I fully agree. StoneFold's analysis showed this with ALBA up 27% on Friday, Solo now looks good value on the oil flowing at HH alone. I was also struck by the interview Jay gave this week where he said Aminex with 25% is undervalued at £78 million, I wonder what he thinks about Solo also with 25% and HH and H1 valued at £11 million?

Yes StoneFold, ALBA up 27% today has tilted it in SOLO's favour.

Kev if you invested in Solo 8 years ago and have held all that time then yes it has been a bad investment, sorry get over it and move on (I was in Solo then, lost a little but got out and moved elsewhere). But if you are looking to new investment now its a different matter. Money is flowing in at HH today, Ruvuma is just over 12 months away.
I have never understood shareholders who say they want the share to rise but then **** the company off and want to drive others away. I have criticised the board as strongly as anyone and I voted against the re-election of directors (didn't see you at the AGM btw). However as it stands today I am happy with the current board policy and happy to have my money here.

That is a stunning interview, spud this year, 40 scuffs is the absolute minimum and the reality should be much higher and gas expected to be flowing is 2019. He thinks Aminex with 25% is undervalued at £78 million, I wonder what he thinks about Solo also with 25% and HH and H1 valued at £11 million?

Hi Stocktaker01, I personally agree so I have loaded up my ISA and will look to top up when I can free up a little cash.

Bearing out the figures StoneFold posted earlier this week.

The thing you need to understand about our friend Kejokeo, is that he once lost £30 on Solo so he has made it his life’s work to protect the world from the evils of this company. As he sits in his lonely garret in his pants with nobody to talk to his only human contact is to make stupid comments on here in the vain attempt that someone will give him a little attention.
Ahh he says, Solo has gone down therefore it must always go down case proven. The fact they now own over £500 million in proven reserves scares poor Kejokeo. As we trip ever closer to production and the money starts to flow he predicts some magic evil force will sweep in and steal all our assets and he will rule supreme as the Warren Buffett of AIM.
Can we all please treat him with the respect he deserves like the people we see talking to themselves on buses and in other public places.

I am as impatient as anyone but we know oil and gas is a slow business, listen to the Lenigas interview and hear his frustration. However we have seen definite forward progress in the last two weeks. HH has started selling oil and that will only increase in the weeks and months to come. ARA say that by Jan 2020 Solo's 25% will be generating at least $12 million per year. Money with hard dates along side them.
There is a lag in the market neither UKOG or ALBA or the other HH players have moved significantly but I personally believe a reaction will occur, you have to make your own decisions.

Hi Chris, just watched it. I was struck by the potential there, far bigger than we previously discussed. I also note his assumption that "Big Oil" would come in and buy out the smaller players.

If the HH news pans out I believe this changes things significantly. We would be funded day to day and if Aminex gets KN1 back working even more so. I personally see no advantage in farming out Ruvuma at the moment, lets develop it to the point the gas starts flowing then we will be in a much stronger position (I see now why we are talking to major banks). In just over twelve months little old Solo should be worth a heck of a lot more money than today.
I have therefore modified my views somewhat and at the AGM I am now happy to support the board and tell them to postpone farmout unless they get a steamingly good offer. Views?

Blimey StoneFold that took me a while to work out. It does show that SOLO and ALBA are a much better bet that UKOG if you want to make a profit!

Wow I hadn't realised it was quite that big. Happy days.

At current oil price of $67 and based on pumping 350 days a year at 352 bopd our share is around $805k / year which at current exchange rates is £620k / year and these are minimum start rates. We are funded for day to day and we can borrow additional investment funds against this!

Chris, do we have any idea on the value of Horse Hill if we wanted to sell our interest? When I was guessing last week I was assuming in the region of £6-£10 million but I know it all depends on the flow rates and reserves.

The assets are still are much better than the market cap, UKOG has MC of £120m with 36% of HH and AEX has a MC of £83m with the same share of Ruvuma as Solo and $20-$30 million of free carry. You stick your money where you want but I am quite confortable here thanks.

Hi Caddy, I have no idea if you are holding shares but $65 million (to which you would need to add HH and H1) is about 12p-14p a share which I would be perfectly happy with. Remember we have a board RNS statement saying they will "distribute to shareholders the majority of the proceeds of any sale or farm-out, in cash or in specie"

Interesting post from Crusty Pete on the AEX board
"for the want of a maximum of $105 m of development capital; which by the way JB thinks will be no more than $60 m by the time they get to EPS (so I am told)"
JB being Jay Bhattacherjee CEO of Aminex, so the development spend to EPS could be as low as $20 million.

Well this makes the calculations a lot easier. The buy in is $35 million plus whatever Solo need for our share. The payback is $12 million per year for 3 years and then $35 million for year for 12 - 14 years to an expected minimum return of $580 million. As Solo I would happily take $65 million cash to walk away and let the buyer quadruple their money.