Member Info for jetcrowts

Toothache, you may well be correct it sounds in the ball park.

What I have tried to demonstrate in the example that to some 34% sounds low however a geologist report is never going to give a much higher percentage based on the different things they factor in.

In other words, I am saying that 34% is a very strong indicator of oil being present.

Let's hope so!!

The below will illustrate my point on why 34% is a high figure for striking oil:

For exploration ventures, the recommended method to assess the chance of commercial success is to first identify the minimum field size associated with the firm's definition of the threshold of commerciality, and then to determine what proportion of such fields occur in the natural population of counterpart accumulations in the subject trend, play, or basin. This requires the geologist or engineer to construct a field size distribution.

Example

For a given extension project having a predicted mean reserve size of 1,500,000 BOE, the geologist has concluded that the probability of reservoir rock is 0.9, the structural probability is 0.8, and the probability of hydrocarbon charge is 0.9. The chief geological risk concerns whether a key fault will or will not seal, and the geologist assesses this as a 50/50 proposition. Thus, the perceived chance of geological success is 32%. However, construction of a field-size distribution for 20 analogous fault-separated fields in the trend reveals that only 3/4 of them are larger than 200,000 bbl, which is the minimum economic field size in this trend for your firm. Therefore, the chance of commercial success is 0.75 × 0.32 = 0.24. Calculated in this way it represents the chance of finding a field of 200,000 bbl or larger.

Hope that makes sense.

Good analysis Lemming.

Historically tlw has done well when oil has and this is played out with the graphs.

My only point would be that the analysis does not include the details of the RI about 5 years ago and the proper mismanagement under McDade which involved heavy spending and a number of dusters.

I feel that with lower capex tlw will be drilling only in areas where there are excellent development opportunities hence making for an exciting few years ahead....don't forget 34% is a fantastic percentage for a drill to be successful, I know that it is 1 in 3 but the geologists rarely give better than that in offshore drilling.

We are in a far better financial position than for a long time and have a CEO who knows that as debt is reducing this has a snowball effect with lower interest payments and the ability to get cheaper credit further down the road.

TLW is in safe hands.

ATB DYOR

because we have got rid of Bathwater and his in and out £2k trades for 5% profit is no longer holding the SP back.

Good luck all LTH, looking very bright here.

Nice first post..... dealt with the contempt it deserves....filtered.

Lemming,

Rahul commented in the presentation after the recent sales that this put tlw in a position where they now had options to deleverage with cash.

I took this to say that now we have the cash in hand from the asset sales it gives us better bargaining power with our lenders to strike a better deal. I feel the RBL was delayed for positive reasons rather than otherwise.

I except some smart ass to pick holes in my thoughts....however they are just that my thoughts!! Applies hard hat!!

Bath water lost more than he gained with his £250 trades. Very difficult to make more money trading that way.

Very Ballsy JMAX, well done.

My partner has no interest in finance but 5 years ago she started to invest £350 per month into TLW, she has never looked at the price in all that time and at one she would have probably killed me had she known what had happened!!

She is now well in profit having bagged some at super low prices, her £21k contributions are now worth almost £30k and I am almost ready to show how good my investment choice has been!!

GLA

expect Bathwater to turn up and tell us this is a bit "toppy" or a bit "frothy".

Read the RNS, visit the CMD presentation, consider the balance sheet improvement of late and improving bond position.
Keep your fingers crossed for the full year results next week, successful RBL and success with the current drill.
Few unknowns but this could easily multibag from here. Best of luck.

Don't get the chance to read every day on here but I calculated he was in and out with a gain of £250 ish a couple of weeks ago.

He must be well proud!! I have calculated had he held that gain would now be over £1500!!!

Key thing to take out of this morning is that the RBL was delayed until these deals were over the line and now that they are tlw are in a better place within the negotiations.

Rahul made it clear that they are looking at restructuring the near term bonds but should negotiations not go to their liking they are in a position to repay through cash in hand. He emphasised that no covenants will be breached.

This is the likely reason the RBL was delayed, getting this sale over the line gives the ability to address the short term debt, the oil price looks like it is going to do the rest.

Debt lowering means lower interest and has a snowball effect on debt reduction.

Happy days

Based on his purchase price the maximum made is 5%, based on 20000 shares his sale is worth £5428 therefore prurchase price was £5150. Less stamp duty and purchase/sale fees even on 20k shares the gain is approx. £200. That doesn't take in to account the bid/offer spread.

Could you be bothered?

Increase in oil price is also a great opportunity to get a decent hedging strategy in place. Win, win.

it doesn't say 100 dollars it says 65 dollars

Set a 90 day sell price at 150p for my 450000 shares.

Let’s get some momentum going on this.

I see Marshall Wace has dropped below the threshold for reporting on the short tracker which I see as a huge positive. Historically they more than any other company have called it right time and again regarding when to inc/dec short position.

Most of the short position is now in 2 inexperienced companies Pictet and Varde (make up 2/3 of the declared shorts between them) and all other companies are decreasing their position.

Pictet only hold Tullow in their short portfolio. This sets alarm bells ringing to me and suggests they are using Tullow purely as a hedge against the oil price and not that the company itself is set to fail.

Similar applies to Varde. They only hold 2 companies above the 0.5% threshold, namely Tullow and TUI, they clearly have a low sentiment on travel and oil which are in many ways linked (no planes in the air less oil usage etc).

My main reason for being positive on the shorts is that it is these 2 companies against the rest of the world. Neither have been short on Tullow prior to 2020 and I think they are using us as a play on oil they are inexperienced in Tullow and in my view have called it wrong and I expect a short squeeze as they run for the exit door. Q1 could be very interesting here.

GLTA, DYOR

They said that depending on OP they may introduce a second rig. This will more than offset the downside of production as it stands

OP sure to go up from here so I would say they will introduce a 2nd rig and hedge the production this rig produces.

Few people here saying this is a possibility tomorrow but I don't think there is a chance of this.

I was an investor at the last RI and the MC was far higher at the time. The costs involved with an RI are very high and especially if it is fully underwritten as was the case last time.

Based on MC they can hardly ask for say 50% MC as most holders would not want to make such a sizeable investment in a company with its recent track record. In any case, asking for £200 million and then incurring costs of approx. £20 million makes little sense when there is so much headroom in free cash.

I think there is some seriously good news coming tomorrow folks, which has been leaked a little hence the rise from last Friday.

DYOR, GLTA.