Member Info for JerseyCrew

I have a strong dislike of shorters - the dregs of the system - I feel better for getting that off my chest!

A piece of career advice that served me well for over 40 years - if you want to advance, associate with those above you......

Just blasted past $3900 - $4K in sight and only a matter of time

Anyone cared to look at the speaker line up?

Some big players there ....https://aecweek.com/speakers/

Lets hope Omar makes some good connections

$3.854 !

Thanks Mickey - that removes doubt on Callum’s financial commitment if there ever was any.

GH was also a good media guy

I suspect that irrespective of what might be found (or not for balance), he will always prefer to be the quiet man in the background. He is already a legend - what comes after legend? GOAT? Here's hoping!!

Grassroots - please share more about your personal interactions with Callum - how did you find him?

Strong start to the week -$3808

Have a good one!

Pacifico - please don’t scan read - read very carefully. Everything has been positioned with an IF.

It’s the potential scale and the potential for where POG is going. The leverage impact could be phenomenal . First things first - bring in the assay results!

I mentioned I did a lot of forecast modelling on the TG group - even I stopped at 200% of Haverion size :-)

Good question lsetown. If you are just looking at the website and the current status page, then you see 4 satellite targets - but then if you look at Omar's tweet on the company tweet dated Sep 4th - you can see that this has been updated to 7 possible satellite targets! So I ran these though GPT5 to try and analyse the combined area of the satellites (not the circles but the bodies within) and it has come up with 38.4 km2. Lets take half of that assuming error rate of 50% - that still gives 19km2 - the main body being targeted is 8km2 - so yes, when they say they are looking at a potential district scale, this is what they are referring to.

As always if anyone want to independently check the imagery, please please do it - it would be great for a second opinion based on what we have so far.

ATB

A fellow TG contributor posted this earlier - with their permission I am sharing with my response. I appreciate we haven’t announced anything yet, but the following should be in the back of every investors mind who is interested in gold.

I listened to RR on YT yday. Presently, 0.5% of investments are in gold. Long term average is 2%. What happens if rebalance to LTA and overshoot?^

^^

Personally I’m convinced it’s not a question of IF but WHEN. I believe I have been ultra conservative in my modelling - $4K POG in 2026 and thereafter 5% pa increases - but I think we will find that we are in $5/6K territory by 2028 and possibly sooner depending on global events. There is always a lead /lag with miners and then explorers for that impact to move down through the supply chain but if we find commercial grades and dare I say it - a tier 1 deposit, then the bull case here, is off the charts. If we hit those grades and volumes I could be tempted to post those forecast’s! 😆

If we find another Haverion then it is easy to understand why Omar is targeting a £1B MCAP valuation . I didn’t go looking for the MCAP at that level - that’s just where the scenarios took me.

(continued)

Independent Analysis:

Scale sensitivity is the defining driver. At 100% (Havieron-like), Juno is a mid-tier build worth ~£2bn by 2040 in both cases. Doubling to 200% scale pushes valuations into ~£4–5bn territory; tripling or quadrupling the resource underpins valuations of £6–13bn. This leverage makes Juno structurally asymmetric to exploration success.

Dilution vs SP dynamic. The staged funding model inevitably expands the register (13.5–15.1bn shares), but higher SP levels on successive raises blunt the impact. Base retains ~36% vs Bear ~32.5%. The key is that valuation uplift outweighs dilution, preserving upside for early holders.

Risk anchors. The Base case benefits from earlier first gold and a 5% higher JV stake, providing superior SP glide vs Bear. The Bear case, while punitive on ownership, still re-rates strongly with scale, confirming robustness of the project economics even under harsher assumptions.

Macro overlay. At a flat $4,000/oz gold price base and +5% pa uplift, the model bakes in a supportive tailwind. Any deviation higher (say $5,000/oz by 2030s) would add further torque, particularly in the higher-resource scenarios.

Bottom line: From an independent perspective, Juno’s forward model demonstrates asymmetric upside: downside protected at Havieron scale with £2bn+ valuations, upside unlocked at 200–400% scale where Base cases stretch to £12bn MCAP and Bear still supports £8bn. Execution risk (JV terms, capex creep, permitting) and dilution management remain the obvious pressure points, but the structural leverage to resource growth and gold pricing is clear.

It makes more sense with the matrix tables on the TG site but hopefully this gives the gist

Sorry for the last summary which I didn't proof check before sharing - I think this captures the essence of my modelling - the starting point was finding 100% of existing Haverion resource so obviously for illustration purposes and more to offset fears of share dilution on the journey to production - again an assumption and based on a JV - with bull and base scenarios on the JV terms (I have not concluded bull scenarios as they were off the charts ramp at this stage):GEO Exploration PLC — Juno Forward Model (2025–2040): Independent Take (ChatGPT5)

The Juno forward model has been structured with a conservative lens, presenting both Base and Bear cases that scale off a Havieron-sized starting point (100% resource ≈ ~6.5Moz AuEq). The key takeaway is that even under the most risk-adjusted assumptions, Juno remains highly levered to scale and gold price trajectory, with long-life optionality.

Base Case (30% JV, $2.0bn capex, first gold 2034):

Production profile of ~400koz p.a. at 100% scale, AISC ≈ $1,300/oz.

Gold priced flat $4,000/oz until 2026, then +5% p.a. from 2027.

Dilution path modelled conservatively, final shares ~13.5bn by 2035+, with ~36% of original ownership retained.

Valuation path anchored by pre-production MCAP milestones (£200m–£800m) before switching to 5× attributable earnings multiples.

Outcomes: At Havieron scale (100%), shares re-rate from ~11p (2028) to ~17p (2040) on MCAP ~£2.2bn. At 200–400% scale, valuations steepen sharply: 2040 outcomes range from ~33p (£4.6bn) to ~67p (£12.7bn).

Bear Case (25% JV, $2.5bn capex, first gold 2035, 20% valuation haircut):

Same production metrics, but risk-adjusted through lower JV stake, higher capex, and valuation discount.

Final shares ~15.1bn, original ownership diluted to ~32.5%.

Even so, re-rating still material: At 100% scale, shares climb from ~6p (2028) to ~14p (2040), MCAP ~£2.1bn. At 200–400% scale, the range broadens to ~28–56p (2040) with MCAP £4.2–8.5bn.

(Continued)

Actually just reread the synopsis and it’s understated the base case - I will get them to revisit what I posted

Mickey - this was an independent assessment - I have posted a ton of scenarios and future SP forecasts :

JerseyCrew has put together a detailed forward model for GEO’s Juno Project, projecting potential valuations through to 2040 under both base and bear scenarios. Even under conservative assumptions (25–30% JV stake, $2.5bn capex, +5% p.a. gold increase from 2027), the figures are eye-watering:

📈 Base Case (13.5bn shares) shows share price potential rising from ~4p in 2026 to 23.7p by 2040, with £3.2bn+ market cap.

📉 Bear Case (15.1bn shares) still sees 2040 share price of 56.1p, with a £8.5bn cap. Yes — even the bear case is explosive.

🔎 The model includes:

• Conservative dilution planning across stages (JV, DFS, construction).

• Ownership retention of 32–36% for early shareholders, even after full build-out.

• LoM (mine life) scaling from 17 to 70 years depending on resource size.

• Clear upside torque with discovery: even a 100–150% resource scenario could push share price into double digits before production.

🛠️ Summary: With JUD001 complete, JUD002 drilling, and assays due this quarter, the risk/reward has rarely looked more compelling. GEO’s valuation right now (sub-£20m) doesn’t come close to pricing in the scale of what’s being tested.

⚡If this proves out, we’re not talking just a good trade — we’re looking at a potential company-making, portfolio-defining asset.