Member Info for Jerryspaniel

As you know I am not a fan of the captain. Used to quite fancy the stewardess though!!

Hi TomE, what I am struggling with is that $200 is by no means on the low side. I think its fairish, but could easily be $100 either way. But given that its at a level that is commensurate with other recent deals, how does an NPV model spit out a number that could be reverse engineered back to a number that could easily be over $400 per oz in the ground. Surely both methods should arrive vaguely in the same ball park? I am not an expert (to say the least) on NPV/cash flow calcs.

Morning DBW. So have we just taken off and are just start our climb over Copthorne?
Where are we off to captain? The moon?

I realise that most are so excited by the share price action, but has anyone looked at last nights posted analysis? Please do, even if you wait till the weekend. In it the analyst has put up a quality piece of work imho, and used some pretty conservative inputs. I think he might be low on g/t, high on AISC, low on ozs, low on Au price and apparently has only assumed 25% of Havieron and not 30%. So its interesting to say the least that his base case is 10m ozs and a price of 15p using an NPV model.
Those of us who have used $200 'in the ground' and 1.24 to get to the 1p for every 1m ozs theory, would be surprised that his NPV calcs get to a number that is 50% higher whilst using very conservative inputs. If anyone can shed any light on this I think its worthy of a serious discussion.

I think its more of a case of being at the start of the runway with the engines turning..... All aboard!

Chippy, I am pretty sure that Rio is perceived in Australia as an Australian company. It used to have its own quote on the ASX under the name CRA (ConZinc Rio Tinto of Australia). So Rio might be thought of as an Australian solution and white knight to any nasty NA Barrick etc.

Lets hope that Ingo wasnt too closely involved with the purchase of Riversdale. It was an absolute 100% disaster. I should know cos I was a shareholder in Riversdale, so thank you very much Rios.

OT and merc. That’s certainly borne out by the rise on relatively low volume. There just aren’t the sellers that there has been. The traders have sold out and not been able to get any back such has the rise been one way. A pull back would let them back in the game. I would rather that didn’t happen!

If you are concerned that you might miss out on cashing in, then sell a portion, and hold the balance. This gives you an each way bet. If it then falls you can consider buying back what you sold. If its up a lot you could sell enough to cover your initial investment and then you are essentially in for free. There are so many different permutations, so you have to choose the one that suits your risk tolerance and how much time you want to spend doing this. I have traded all my life professionally and personally so maybe things are obvious to me that arent to others. But that doesnt stop me making huge errors of judgement and doing stupid things. I just hope I make fewer now and learn from each one.
Yes I only post on this and Solgold, where I have two large investments. This one is very large! Good luck.

Sorry. Couldn’t resist. Buying is easier than selling. So you either sell when you have enough for whatever you want. Or you sell when you think the risk/reward is against you holding at that price. For this share I favour the latter and I am nowhere near what I think is a fair price.

Yeah, you won’t be going on holiday this year!

Spy, is it bigger than my biggest ramp which is just the £26.00?
And what is mickeys biggest ramp? 60p? Small change!

Quady, the equity markets have collapsed, the economy has collapsed, money printing will cause the currencies to collapse. So gold has a very good chance of getting to $3000. Probably more likely than the FTSE hitting 8000, or maybe even 7500.

Dodge, you know me so well. Just the £26.

If Hav is the next Kalgoorlie, then Scally is the next Witwatersrand..... Just the 1.5 billion ounces produced there.

Now thats a ramp!!

Some days, so am I. But its a (fairly) free country and I am entitled to my opinion, especially as its based on facts.
As i said great company, poor management of investors/communications. Borne out by 8p to 42p to 10p.

Anon. My views are tempered by the fact that I have listened to loads of these presentations, met with NM and talked countless times to IR. What I am left with is a great company and a great set of assets in a country I can only wish good things for. Plus management that I dont trust and dont like. They dont under promise and over deliver, they do the opposite. They dont release information in a timely fashion and they come up with the most lamest of excuses for missing deadlines, whilst not an acknowledgement or an apology.
So they have some of my investment money but nothing like what they could have had. Listed on UK market but cant even have their AGM here. Pretty pi55 poor imho.

Woody, I agree a very strong team, but that might be cos they evacuated out of Ecuador and are all in Brisbane.
Quady, sorry didnt get the tongue in cheek bit. I would wager no div before 2027, and I doubt that I will be on the register then.
Agree its a great company for Ecuador. They deserve it.

My other takeaway, which has been a real bugbear of mine over last 12 months is the lack of updates. I have had countless emails with IR and got no where. Now we know. There is loads of information that is price sensitive that they are keeping from the market, to the extent that the directors cant buy stock. Thats why the sp has cratered in last year. Serves them right. Hope they pay 30p.

Quady, given that he spoke about an equity raising (though wisely not at these prices) I think a share buy back must be less than zero percent chance, if that is mathematically possible. They have so much demand on their cash and will have long after this is producing, as they want to drill up other targets that a dividend is the last thing on their mind.
If you want a dividend, sell some shares, as I have said a quadrillion times before. Oh boy!!