Member Info for Jerryspaniel

Hi 58s. I think the seller chooses, so they will choose to cash settle and the buyers presumably will have to re-buy and try and do an EFP (exchange for physical). I dont know if you listen to the Sprott weekly wrap but they have been all over this for the past few months. Great entertainment even if you dont believe what they say, although I am a huge fan.
Apparently whilst silver futures were fiddling around at $15 you could buy coins for much less than $25! Now silver is on the march too. I am a huge silver bull, more so than gold. Exciting times.

Showing your age addicknt! When was the last time there was one of those? James Hanson?
On prices, I think I would prefer it if NM used $3 for copper and $1500 for gold. I think its about a wash but at least the numbers would be closer to current mkt.

I have seen other reports by Hannam that have said the same thing. If I knew anything about Mifid2 i would say its a requirement of that.

I did, but I used a corporate entity rather than as an individual.

Colonel, that’s what addicknt and I have been saying for a while. Not saying it’s a done deal, but it’s in the top two or three likely outcomes.

Maybe he had a half a glass too much of Chardonnay...

Quady as you know, we respectfully disagree.
It just smacks of a really low class guy having a spat in public with a giant of the industry. He needs Anna more than he realises. Cant believe she would have thought this a good idea.
Only one winner here I think.

Strudel, I have a copy of their 48 page report on Solgold of 18months ago. They are a pukka outfit.
I have read this report and its a very thorough document. They go into the detail of the trucking costs to Telfer, cost of mining equipment etc etc. I would say its v conservative on all mine dimensions and grades and maybe slightly aggressive on Au price, recovery and production, but they recognise all those factors and justify/explain them.
I am buying!

My guess is that NM got that tweet/article published to up the ante with BHP/NC. But to then re-tweet it is quite unbelievable. So whats NM saying?:
1. I really dont give a stuff about you two
2. I am not sure that you got my message last week
3. I want to make you REALLY angry
4. This is my last throw of the dice with you two. Please make me an offer
5. All of the above...
To say that this lacks class would imho be the understatement of quite a long time!
Where is Harry Carpenter? Fight Fight Fight.

Are the shares completely fungible? Could you buy in London and deliver them in Canada to settle a short sale? Probably not for the likes of us PIs, and maybe the liquidity doesnt justify it, but this should be arbitraged away.

Loggy it probably is a non starter mainly cos at no point has GH said that he wants to be a miner, or a minority holder of a mine. So a deal will be agreed, nothing hostile, and GGP will either move on to whats left or they will be gone completely. My pref is to move on to SW and PRE/BH etc, and a nice side deal that allows NC to back in to anything GGP find. But I have only a slightly better idea than some on here and no better idea than most.

Loggy and Dore, assuming that Hav is sold, that will be reflected in the sp. At that point you can sell some/all your shares and you then wont care whether there is a div or not. Same result for you as if div.

Top piece of work Corradus, it dovetails so neatly with some of the other great jobs by Paddy, Magic, Launder, Hydrogen et al. I think that you have got the base case sewn up. Add in the rumours and we can all see where the upside can get us to.
Onwards and upwards!

FTJNY. I know that’s what he said, but I wonder if that is strictly accurate. Why is it within a spv (ENSA) if that is the case. Assets are never sold, the company that holds them is. It would be an odd set up, sort of poison pill, if it were.

Hi corradus. I don’t think we have enough evidence that you can go deeper or longer with the dimensions yet. Grades look fine. There might be a case for slightly higher copper price but I think the gold price too high for any modelling. I use a slightly lower number of shares in issue. Either I haven’t added in Pacific trends shares (which I thought I had) or you have them in twice.
I wonder what disc to npv NC would be looking to pay? 25?
Great piece of work though. Thank you.

Red, doesnt it somewhat depend on the price of GGP? Given that they seem to be happy to buy royalty streams for 12% return which they probably could lever with debt rather than straight equity, one assumes they will have a s/sheet using similar numbers adjusting for risk, including political, for a GGP deal.
Hopefully GH will have his CFO reverse engineering the streaming deal and punching in some assumptions into the Hav model to see what price he would sell at.

Quady, I think its highly likely that they will get a lot closer to production if BHP dont make a move once their standstill ends. What is the point of BHP owning 15% and being overlooked in favour of streaming funding? Just embarrassing. I THINK BHP will go for Solgold but they may well sell up or partner someone else. I just dont think the status quo is realistic. I am pretty certain (from my viewpoint) that NC are gone, financially, emotionally and corporately, if not physically.
My guess is this has played out just as NM expected it to, except he thought the share price might have been 60-80p. He has played BHP and NC, and now everyone knows it.
KB007, I completely agree that this is all about Solgold, but if you ignore all the other actors in this play you wont see the whole picture.
My personal preference has always been to sell off ENSA and thus get rid of the annoying CGP and go exploring in the rest of Ecuador, something that they have the skills and competitive advantage to do. To do this they may have to use some of the proceeds to buy back NC and BHPs shares. [I wonder if they could raise $8.5billion by streaming all of their stake in Alpala :-)]
Selling Solgold would be a shame and a sad end to NMs career.
I appreciate that you two have different views. It looks like we wont have long to wait to see who is right.

It appears that NM knows just quite how much he has upset NC and BHP cos if he offered them some equity they would gobble it up - and NC would then almost certainly sell it to BHP at a price that gets them out for no loss. I still think the latter will happen and anyone listened to Sandeep Biswas today you would have heard a man salivating at the thought of getting stuck into his stellar projects. He really doesnt want to deal with NM or Solgold, neither of which he seems to like at the moment. Solgold didnt get one second of his presentation today. Look for NCs rep on the board to quit soon, would be my guess.
It just seems obvious that BHP will own Ensa and maybe Solgold too. All NM can do is try and frustrate the process for long enough to get a higher price, whilst selling off the family silver through royalty streams.
Solgold is dirt cheap at these prices, but mainly on the basis it will be sold for a bit/lot more than this. It will never produce anything more than a PFS!

Qali, I think its a pretty small world out there. They will all know each other.

Great job everyone in flooding SB with loads of Havieron questions. As Paddy says it couldnt have gone better. 7g is going to be a lot more than 7-10m ozs in the fullness of time.
For those that get ahead of themselves its clear that NC would only buy Hav if they can see a nice return for themselves, so when you factor in all those silly high prices, you might want to ponder whats in it for NC?