1. my first position was a short, closed as soon as sky dropped the news.
2. my second position was at 90p when the share collapsed via bloomberg
3. today I closed at 95p as soon as it went red
4. my next position will be a) more likely around 50p when this gets oversold from a walk away or b) extension has granted, were Ill purchase if I can get in below 100, however id say this is probably 20% likely.
My position became extremely bullish when I saw the bounce back from 81 to 99 and hold over the weekend. obviously today absolute destroyed that, hence my change in position. if you look at any other share charts where apollo is currently circling, they aren't dropping.
I'm sorry guys, from experience you don't see a share on the verge of takeover fall like this.
Of course I may be wrong, but i'm following my rules. If it went up today back above 100 then I would have remained bullish. Buy in price for me will be sub 50 next week if possible, awaiting the next bid next year.
Rns landing on tuesday explaining thg have already rejected multiple bids of 160 to 170, and awaiting a further bid from a apollo to match their expectations + have others circling. back up to 160 like last year for a few weeks..
Rns will land, 170p was offered, increased to 220p. then discussions and probably a month for thg to decide. probably rise and sit at 170 imo, ill probably sell and take my money into boohoo while it sits so low.
I was around 50/50 whether of a take-over would happen when the first rns hit, but after the apollo drafting in the 2 ceos just last week pushed me upto 80% and then seeing the SP tank and bounce back hard.
Then hold and rise into the weekend.. everyone who has traded for years knows if bloomberg had even an inch of knowledge this would have tanked on friday.
And why did bloomberg not add, it could be a partial takeover for example, the acquiring company may purchase a specific percentage of the target company's shares, which would result in partial ownership. This is often referred to as a minority stake or a strategic investment. MM keeps his share and the rest of the shareholders take 1.70.. I think it would get over the line
One more thing, notice how you type in thg on google and youll find lots of news of the drop on thursday of 20%.. what about the 20% spike on the sky news...
when news is leaked a share price will fall, and never rise into a long weekend. see you on tuesday for a modest rise back to the high of 118 imo
On april 17th we jumped 40% after news apollo had submitted a bid, imo the bid was privately rejected, but then we found out early last week they had drafted in some serious players in the industry (sky news) to help with the bid. that tells me the following:
1. 100% intend to submit a higher bid, else we would know by now if they had walked away, instead they drafted in people to help
2. the bid was accepted on the 17th, but have drafted in the ex CEOs of Coty and H&B to make sure they aren't over paying.
i found is hilarious the bloomberg journos thought they new more about takeovers than apollo themselves..
yesterdays fall would have only worried be if we fell today, the fact it fell and has bounced by 20% then held and pushed upwards into close today is very promising. its actually made me more confident! just thinking out loud here, but this fall back to 99p might increase the chance of a bid, now apollo can offer £1.50, a low offer but at the same time its a high premium. like i said, the first offer being rejected would mean end of play, wood group had 5 bids & counting.
apollo offered a premium of 60% for woodgroup last month, the offer hasn't be accept or declined, however this was the fifth offer and wood granted apollo access to due diligence materials and extended the deadline for a final offer by nearly a month, stretching the deadline from 19 April this week to 17 may.
I expected the first offer on tuesday of 1.50
Imo what will happen is there will be a bit of £1.50 to £2 bid, it will be rejected, however the book won't be closed just like last year, allowing apollo to counter = share will rise to the bid. It will hold there until we find out if they increasing, which is where I will sell out.
Never fails to surprise me when people replying to shorters, thinking they are making them look like a mug, are actually just helping them push their influence on the board.