RE: Cash Generative/Profit17 Jul 2025 20:51
Ah yes, the weekly tuna “profit vs. cash generative” explainer—rolled out like it’s breaking news.
Let’s unpack a few things though:
Yes, ITM is projecting a £25–26m net loss this year—as per guidance. No one’s pretending otherwise. But conveniently skipping over the H2 cash generative guidance—the bit that signals improving operational efficiency—is where your argument starts to fall apart.
As for the £161m cash usage over 3 years:
ITM scaled from a pilot-stage firm to a functioning production business.
It survived an energy market collapse, geopolitical shocks, and a reset of global hydrogen expectations.
It rebuilt its leadership, slashed costs, and is now pivoting from burn to build.
You quote “7 MW sold” this FY like it’s some static figure, ignoring that the market pipeline is expanding, with 1 GW in "handshake deal" and real commercial traction (not government subsistence like in earlier years). That figure grows quarter-on-quarter—and yes, it takes time to convert, especially in an emerging infrastructure sector.
And as for “the share price tells you everything”—it dropped to 25p earlier this year. If price was perfect truth, then the company must have been worth less than its office furniture, right? Then it rallied to 96p in a few weeks. Where was this airtight logic then?
This obsession with “cash burn” without context is a hallmark of lazy short theses. Yes, ITM has challenges. Yes, execution matters. But trying to frame a turnaround strategy mid-execution as failure is just desperate.