Member Info for JDwag

They’ll be serious cash conservation going on IMHO. They’ll be no ‘confetti’ is my view. To do that you’d need to wipe out Shumba, Thermoelectrica, MAST and Sanderson. Ain’t going to happen. Any placing (not guaranteed any time soon) will be small and at a premium to current SP is my view. JD

My nine kidneys are all ready in here. JD

If they can close out that Moz private PPA and get a good RNS to market then 0.85p will be seen in hindsight to be a criminal SP. JD

At these levels and this SP / MCAP we only need one of these projects to ‘hit’ and we are laughing. I’m adding more next week, even though it’s a nigh on certainty that we are going bust, especially with our zero liabilities and negligible outgoings, that’s what always makes companies go bust you see. I’m really just topping up on the 1% chance I’m wrong. JD

Yes, £17.8k for that wedge. This time last year that kind of purchase would have cost you £135k lol. Inspired purchase if you ask me. I can’t complain, added a barrel load myself this week awaiting the eventual climb North. JD

Womble,

Of course, I and the market may be totally overreacting, for all we know at this point in time Tanzania / MCPP could very well come back ‘Lazarus’ style by playing the long game and seeing how things pan out.

I would love a quick PPA RNS on Moz, it would be us in all kinds of a better place.

JD

I’ve been here longer than I care (or probably want) to remember, over that time we have gone from Tanzania-Centric Miner and Developer of MCPP to something that now’s a Pan-Sub-Saharan African and UK Energy Provider and IMHO there is probably a better chance than Even that Tanzania won’t be involved in our future (I don’t know, no one does). On first sight of my Kibo portfolio page my investment here is an utter mess and I am now 79% down on my investment as I type.

That said, I rarely look back in anger (even less so the older I get) and we are where we are and this now looks to be a historic chance to make some serious profits here IMHO, or in my situation, make some back (and hopefully then some). Considering our MCAP we surely only need either one of Moz, Bots and UK to really come off for us to make all of our losses back, even a complete sale of MCPP (Mine, Plant and Permits) would net a huge return to shareholders way above our MCAP IMHO.

That said, I have been throwing the kitchen sink at top ups these last few days to really get my average down and I very much hope after the Tanzanian RNS Bomb that went off here on 14 Feb we are at a turning point in project execution on our other projects and thus investor sentiment. Only time will tell of course.

As always DYOR.

JD

Oh yes....

JD

They are going to need a heap of new energy to up it to that kind of production numbers.....

https://www.newtimes.co.rw/business/cautious-optimism-africas-mining-sector

‘Mozambique’s coal industry has developed more slowly than expected over the past decade because of a combination of low international prices and a lack of transport capacity. However, exports are now benefiting from a growing range of export options.

Most of the country’s proven reserves are located in Tete province in the far northwest but mines in the province’s Moatize basin are now connected by rail with coal terminals at the Indian Ocean ports of Beira and Nacala.
Funding has been secured for a project that could offer the highest capacity export line. China Export and Credit Insurance Corporation (Sinosure) and Chinese banks are to finance a $2.7bn venture to build a 639km railway from Moatize to Macuse near the mouth of the River Zambezi, plus a new coal port at Macuse itself with initial handling capacity of 25m tonnes a year.

The government in Maputo had spoken of an eventual capacity of 100m tonnes a year, which would put it on a par with Richards Bay Coal Terminal in South Africa, but both thermal and coking coal prices need to significantly recover if that it is to be achieved. According to Maputo, it costs about $50 per tonne to transport coal on the Nacala line currently used by Brazilian mining giant Vale.

The completion of the new line should help to substantially reduce those costs. The railway consortium of Thai Mozambique Logistics, state-owned transport utility Portos e Caminhos de Ferro de Moçambique (CFM) and Corredor de Desenvolvimento Integrado do Zambeze (Codiza) should take the final investment decision on the project this year. The decision may determine whether Mozambique remains a fairly modest coal exporter or finally begins to tap its huge potential.’

JD

I must be crazy. LIKE A FOX!!!

JD

https://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/for-uk-energy-peakers-play-a-blinder-1.756032

It's an older article short refrences, however, it does show the serious issues with going down a renewable 'heavy' strategy.

When the wind stops blowing or the sun stops shining (or you have drought in Hydro heavy areas) you have issues and which is why you need approx. 12.5% in 'Peaker' standby power (1 Mw for every 8 Mw produced in total). Those are Ofgem's numbers BTW.

JD

Your right, project funding is going to throw an eight figure sum into a completely unviable energy project. I’m sure their DD won’t wven touch that aspect of things. FFS. JD

My whiskers are tingling, think Moz update could be soon.

JD

You may well be right, SYM. Kibo’s history of completing their projects beyond Financial Close isn’t good. However, if this time is to be different the SP will respond IMHO.

Pays your money and all that…..

JD

100mw+ anyway i am looking forward too. It will be reserve power, but it will also be a higher tariff rate.

Much to unfold, but a nice string to he bow unfolding.

JD

https://www.miningmx.com/news/energy/36055-sa-govts-aemfc-to-pump-r1bn-into-optimum-coal-after-winning-interim-funding-bid/

JD

Nicely moving along, should start to see real value once the JDA and Financing agreed, considering the timescales here you will be looking at JDA and Financing agreed by the end of this quarter. Lovely.

JD

Oh why not.

JD

In order:

1. Even a complete ‘fire’ sale of MCPP would net us more (a lot more) than our MCAP (assuming worst case scenario that MCPP is now dead to Kibo, it may not be!);
2. A 150Mw PPA with private off takers in Moz and this goes north from a £5m MCAP;
3. Licence Approval in Bots and / or a deal for the coal offtake and this goes north from a £5m MCAP; and
4. MAST / MED funding £20m+ plus for the two ‘approved’ projects and this goes north from a £5m MCAP.

This is just what I see could easily happen this month / this quarter. Considering we have no debt (not a ramp, a fact) the notion of people (now all filtered from my view) coming on here and saying this is going bust is well, disingenuous at best, we aren’t going bust and if you have half a brain cell you know it.

As I say, the SP / MCAP has lost reality from the actual situation at hand.

JD

….for this morning and more to come.

We are all big boys and girls and we decide for ourselves, personally, I think the SP and MCAP has all but lost its mind.

JD